Recessionary signal   Warning signal   Expansionary signal   N/A*  

Leading Indicators

Leading Index for the United States 99.9 on 1-2024 99.0, 99.1, 99.2, 99.3, 99.4, 99.5, 99.5, 99.6, 99.7, 99.9
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 0.9 on 11-2025 0.1, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.3, 0.3, 0.7, 0.7, 0.9, 0.9
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.2 on 9-2025 0.4, -0.4, 0.4, 0.2, -0.4, -0.3, -0.1, -0.1, -0.3, -0.2

Employment Indicators

Civilian Unemployment Rate 7.3 percent change yoy on 12-2025 7.7, 7.7, 7.7, 10.3, 0.0, 2.4, 2.4, 7.3, 7.1, 7.3
U-6 Unemployment Rate 10.5 percent change yoy on 12-2025 9.6, 8.2, 5.4, 5.4, 4.1, 1.3, 3.8, 5.2, 13.0, 10.5
Total Nonfarm Employment 50.0 change period over period on 12-2025 120.0, 158.0, 19.0, -13.0, 72.0, -26.0, 108.0, -173.0, 56.0, 50.0
4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims -0.9 percent change yoy on 1/03/2026 -0.7, 2.6, 2.9, 2.8, -1.9, -3.1, -3.5, -4.1, -1.5, -0.9
Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts) 0.9 percent change yoy on 9-2025 1.7, 1.9, 1.6, 2.1, 2.0, 1.1, 0.8, 1.0, 0.9, 0.9
Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees -0.5 percent change yoy on 12-2025 0.5, 0.0, -0.2, -0.2, 0.5, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3, 0.0, -0.5
Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) 3.6 percent change yoy on 12-2025 3.9, 4.0, 3.9, 4.0, 3.9, 3.9, 3.8, 3.7, 3.8, 3.6

Production Indicators

Industrial Production Index 2.5 percent change yoy on 11-2025 0.8, 0.6, 0.9, 0.1, 0.6, 1.9, 1.2, 1.9, 2.2, 2.5
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries 3.2 percent change yoy on 10-2025 -4.1, 1.5, 1.1, -4.5, -4.3, -0.3, 3.1, 3.2, 3.0, 3.2
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods 7.4 percent change yoy on 10-2025 13.5, 4.9, 28.0, 7.8, 64.5, 32.9, 3.5, 13.5, 12.4, 7.4

Consumer Indicators

Real Person Consumption Expenditures 2.4 percent change yoy on 9-2025 3.6, 3.3, 2.7, 3.2, 3.1, 2.5, 2.5, 2.6, 2.8, 2.4
Real Retail and Food Services Sales 1.1 percent change yoy on 9-2025 1.7, 1.5, 1.0, 2.6, 2.6, 1.0, 1.7, 1.4, 2.0, 1.1
Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) 3.4 percent change yoy on 10-2025 4.6, 4.0, 4.9, 4.7, 2.9, 4.0, 3.8, 4.7, 3.9, 3.4
Total Vehicle Sales -6.3 percent change yoy on 11-2025 1.1, 13.0, 7.0, -1.7, 3.1, 3.9, 6.0, 2.1, -5.6, -6.3
Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores 4.9 percent change yoy on 10-2025 -3.1, -3.0, 2.5, -0.3, -1.8, 0.1, 1.1, 3.2, 6.8, 4.9

Residential Construction Indicators

New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits -1.1 percent change yoy on 10-2025 -5.5, -7.8, 0.3, -2.5, -0.9, -4.7, -5.2, -9.9, -1.3, -1.1

Credit and Financial Indicators

10-Year US Treasury 4.2 on 1/12/2026 4.1, 4.1, 4.2, 4.2, 4.2, 4.2, 4.2, 4.2, 4.2, 4.2
Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) 0.5 on 1/13/2026 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.6, 0.5, 0.6, 0.6, 0.5, 0.5
Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) 0.6 on 1/13/2026 0.7, 0.7, 0.7, 0.7, 0.7, 0.7, 0.7, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6
M2 Money Stock 4.3 percent change yoy on 11-2025 3.4, 3.5, 4.0, 4.0, 4.2, 4.5, 4.4, 4.5, 4.6, 4.3
All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets -4.1 percent change yoy on 1/07/2026 -6.0, -5.5, -5.3, -5.1, -5.2, -5.2, -4.8, -4.4, -3.1, -4.1
Kansas City Financial Stress Index -0.7 on 12-2025 -0.6, 0.1, -0.5, -0.6, -0.7, -0.8, -0.8, -0.6, -0.7, -0.7
Chicago National Financial Conditions Index -0.6 on 1/02/2026 -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.6
St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c) -0.6 on 1/02/2026 -0.5, -0.3, -0.5, -0.1, -0.4, -0.4, -0.4, -0.3, -0.6, -0.6

Inflation Indicators

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) 2.7 percent change yoy on 12-2025 2.8, 2.4, 2.3, 2.4, 2.7, 2.7, 2.9, 3.0, 2.7, 2.7
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) 2.6 percent change yoy on 12-2025 3.1, 2.8, 2.8, 2.8, 2.9, 3.0, 3.1, 3.0, 2.6, 2.6
PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy) 2.8 percent change yoy on 9-2025 3.0, 2.8, 3.0, 2.7, 2.6, 2.8, 2.8, 2.9, 2.9, 2.8
Median Consumer Price Index 3.4 on 12-2025 4.2, 4.0, 2.7, 4.1, 3.4, 3.4, 2.4, 1.1, 1.1, 3.4
5yr5yr Inflation Expectations 2.2 on 1/13/2026 2.2, 2.2, 2.2, 2.2, 2.2, 2.2, 2.2, 2.2, 2.2, 2.2


Note: Indicators are updated daily at 6:00 am Eastern time.
*Indicators rated as N/A may not themselves suggest changes in the business cycle, but should be monitored nonetheless.
Last Update on: 01/14/2026