Recessionary signal   Warning signal   Expansionary signal   N/A*  

Leading Indicators

Leading Index for the United States 99.9 on 1-2024 99.0, 99.1, 99.2, 99.3, 99.4, 99.5, 99.5, 99.6, 99.7, 99.9
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 1.0 on 8-2025 0.1, 0.1, 0.4, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2, 0.4, 0.3, 0.6, 1.0
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.1 on 8-2025 -0.0, 0.4, -0.4, 0.4, 0.1, -0.4, -0.2, -0.1, -0.3, -0.1

Employment Indicators

Civilian Unemployment Rate 2.4 percent change yoy on 8-2025 13.5, 7.9, 8.1, 5.1, 7.7, 7.7, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4
U-6 Unemployment Rate 3.8 percent change yoy on 8-2025 10.0, 4.2, 4.2, 9.6, 8.2, 5.4, 5.4, 4.1, 1.3, 3.8
Total Nonfarm Employment 22.0 change period over period on 8-2025 261.0, 323.0, 111.0, 102.0, 120.0, 158.0, 19.0, -13.0, 79.0, 22.0
4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims 5.4 percent change yoy on 9/20/2025 -4.1, -6.4, -7.7, -6.2, -4.0, -1.3, 0.3, 4.4, 5.4, 5.4
Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts) 1.4 percent change yoy on 8-2025 1.9, 1.7, 1.9, 1.6, 2.1, 2.3, 1.5, 1.3, 1.5, 1.4
Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees 0.0 percent change yoy on 8-2025 0.5, 0.5, 0.3, 0.2, 0.5, 0.0, -0.2, -0.2, 0.5, 0.0
Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) 3.9 percent change yoy on 8-2025 4.1, 4.0, 4.0, 4.2, 3.9, 4.0, 3.9, 4.0, 3.9, 3.9

Production Indicators

Industrial Production Index 0.9 percent change yoy on 8-2025 -0.9, 0.4, 1.4, 1.1, 1.0, 1.2, 0.7, 0.9, 1.3, 0.9
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries 2.4 percent change yoy on 7-2025 5.2, 0.4, -1.9, -4.1, 1.5, 1.1, -4.5, -4.3, -0.3, 2.4
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods 13.7 percent change yoy on 8-2025 -14.8, -18.5, 13.5, 4.9, 28.0, 7.8, 64.5, 32.9, 3.5, 13.7

Consumer Indicators

Real Person Consumption Expenditures 2.7 percent change yoy on 8-2025 3.2, 3.6, 3.3, 2.7, 3.2, 3.1, 2.5, 2.5, 2.5, 2.7
Real Retail and Food Services Sales 2.0 percent change yoy on 8-2025 1.2, 1.7, 1.5, 1.0, 2.6, 2.6, 1.0, 1.7, 1.3, 2.0
Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) 4.8 percent change yoy on 8-2025 3.9, 4.7, 4.6, 4.0, 4.9, 4.7, 2.9, 4.0, 3.8, 4.8
Total Vehicle Sales 5.3 percent change yoy on 8-2025 7.7, 6.0, 2.5, 1.1, 13.0, 7.0, -1.7, 1.7, 3.5, 5.3
Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores 3.7 percent change yoy on 8-2025 1.9, 5.4, -3.1, -3.0, 2.5, -0.3, -1.8, 0.1, 0.9, 3.7

Residential Construction Indicators

New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits -9.9 percent change yoy on 8-2025 0.3, -2.6, -5.5, -7.8, 0.3, -2.5, -0.9, -4.7, -5.2, -9.9

Credit and Financial Indicators

10-Year US Treasury 4.0 on 10/10/2025 4.2, 4.2, 4.1, 4.1, 4.1, 4.2, 4.1, 4.1, 4.1, 4.0
Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) 0.0 on 10/14/2025 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.0, 0.0
Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) 0.6 on 10/14/2025 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.5, 0.5, 0.6
M2 Money Stock 4.8 percent change yoy on 8-2025 3.5, 3.6, 3.6, 3.5, 3.6, 4.2, 4.2, 4.5, 4.8, 4.8
All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets -6.5 percent change yoy on 10/08/2025 -7.4, -7.4, -7.3, -7.3, -7.2, -7.2, -7.0, -6.7, -6.5, -6.5
Kansas City Financial Stress Index -0.8 on 9-2025 -0.8, -0.7, -0.8, -0.6, 0.1, -0.5, -0.6, -0.7, -0.8, -0.8
Chicago National Financial Conditions Index -0.5 on 10/03/2025 -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5
St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c) -0.5 on 10/03/2025 -0.7, -0.6, -0.8, -0.8, -0.6, -0.4, -0.6, -0.6, -0.5, -0.5

Inflation Indicators

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) 2.9 percent change yoy on 8-2025 2.7, 2.9, 3.0, 2.8, 2.4, 2.3, 2.4, 2.7, 2.7, 2.9
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) 3.1 percent change yoy on 8-2025 3.3, 3.2, 3.3, 3.1, 2.8, 2.8, 2.8, 2.9, 3.0, 3.1
PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy) 2.9 percent change yoy on 8-2025 3.0, 3.0, 2.8, 3.0, 2.7, 2.6, 2.8, 2.8, 2.9, 2.9
Median Consumer Price Index 3.4 on 8-2025 3.2, 3.2, 3.9, 3.5, 4.2, 4.0, 2.7, 4.1, 3.4, 3.4
5yr5yr Inflation Expectations 2.3 on 10/14/2025 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.2, 2.3


Note: Indicators are updated daily at 6:00 am Eastern time.
*Indicators rated as N/A may not themselves suggest changes in the business cycle, but should be monitored nonetheless.
Last Update on: 10/15/2025