Recessionary signal   Warning signal   Expansionary signal   N/A*  

Leading Indicators

Leading Index for the United States 99.9 on 1-2024 99.0, 99.1, 99.2, 99.3, 99.4, 99.5, 99.5, 99.6, 99.7, 99.9
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 0.5 on 4-2025 0.4, 0.2, 0.3, 0.2, 0.2, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.5
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.2 on 4-2025 -0.3, -0.0, -0.2, -0.5, -0.0, 0.4, -0.2, 0.4, 0.0, -0.2

Employment Indicators

Civilian Unemployment Rate 5.0 percent change yoy on 5-2025 13.5, 7.9, 5.1, 13.5, 7.9, 8.1, 5.1, 7.7, 7.7, 5.0
U-6 Unemployment Rate 5.4 percent change yoy on 5-2025 9.9, 10.0, 6.9, 10.0, 4.2, 4.2, 9.6, 8.2, 5.4, 5.4
Total Nonfarm Employment 139.0 change period over period on 5-2025 71.0, 240.0, 44.0, 261.0, 323.0, 111.0, 102.0, 120.0, 147.0, 139.0
4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims 5.8 percent change yoy on 6/14/2025 2.8, 3.2, 7.5, 5.9, 6.0, 5.5, 3.8, 6.0, 6.2, 5.8
Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts) 2.1 percent change yoy on 4-2025 2.5, 2.2, 2.0, 2.2, 2.0, 1.9, 1.3, 1.2, 1.6, 2.1
Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees -0.2 percent change yoy on 5-2025 0.0, 0.0, -0.2, 0.5, 0.5, 0.3, 0.2, 0.5, -0.2, -0.2
Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) 4.0 percent change yoy on 5-2025 4.2, 4.2, 4.2, 4.1, 4.0, 4.0, 4.2, 3.9, 4.1, 4.0

Production Indicators

Industrial Production Index 0.6 percent change yoy on 5-2025 -0.1, -0.7, -0.4, -0.9, 0.4, 1.4, 1.2, 1.2, 1.4, 0.6
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries -4.3 percent change yoy on 4-2025 -2.9, -2.3, 0.2, 5.2, 0.4, -1.9, -4.1, 1.5, 1.1, -4.3
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods 7.8 percent change yoy on 4-2025 -2.9, -0.4, -12.6, -0.6, -14.8, -18.5, 13.5, 4.9, 28.0, 7.8

Consumer Indicators

Real Person Consumption Expenditures 3.2 percent change yoy on 4-2025 2.8, 2.9, 3.2, 3.1, 3.1, 3.1, 3.0, 2.7, 3.1, 3.2
Real Retail and Food Services Sales 0.9 percent change yoy on 5-2025 -0.7, -0.4, 0.5, 1.2, 1.7, 1.5, 1.0, 2.6, 2.6, 0.9
Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) 3.0 percent change yoy on 5-2025 1.5, 1.6, 2.9, 3.9, 4.7, 4.6, 4.0, 4.9, 4.7, 3.0
Total Vehicle Sales -1.3 percent change yoy on 5-2025 -1.7, 0.5, 4.9, 7.6, 5.7, 3.2, 1.4, 13.3, 7.2, -1.3
Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores -1.9 percent change yoy on 5-2025 -0.6, -4.9, -2.1, 1.9, 5.4, -3.1, -3.0, 2.5, -0.2, -1.9

Residential Construction Indicators

New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits -1.0 percent change yoy on 5-2025 -5.4, -6.7, -6.5, 0.3, -2.6, -5.5, -7.8, 0.3, -2.5, -1.0

Credit and Financial Indicators

10-Year US Treasury 4.3 on 6/23/2025 4.5, 4.5, 4.4, 4.4, 4.4, 4.5, 4.4, 4.4, 4.4, 4.3
Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) -0.1 on 6/24/2025 0.0, -0.0, -0.1, -0.0, 0.0, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0, -0.1
Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) 0.6 on 6/24/2025 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.4, 0.5, 0.4, 0.4, 0.5, 0.5, 0.6
M2 Money Stock 4.5 percent change yoy on 5-2025 2.1, 2.7, 3.1, 3.5, 3.6, 3.6, 3.6, 3.9, 4.4, 4.5
All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets -7.9 percent change yoy on 6/18/2025 -9.2, -9.1, -8.9, -8.7, -8.1, -8.4, -8.4, -8.0, -8.0, -7.9
Kansas City Financial Stress Index -0.5 on 5-2025 -0.4, -0.4, -0.4, -0.4, -0.8, -0.8, -0.8, -0.6, 0.1, -0.5
Chicago National Financial Conditions Index -0.5 on 6/13/2025 -0.4, -0.4, -0.4, -0.4, -0.4, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5
St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c) -0.8 on 6/13/2025 0.6, -0.2, -0.3, -0.3, -0.5, -0.9, -0.5, -0.5, -0.8, -0.8

Inflation Indicators

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) 2.4 percent change yoy on 5-2025 2.6, 2.4, 2.6, 2.7, 2.9, 3.0, 2.8, 2.4, 2.3, 2.4
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) 2.8 percent change yoy on 5-2025 3.3, 3.3, 3.3, 3.3, 3.2, 3.3, 3.1, 2.8, 2.8, 2.8
PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy) 2.5 percent change yoy on 4-2025 2.7, 2.7, 2.7, 2.8, 2.8, 2.9, 2.7, 2.9, 2.7, 2.5
Median Consumer Price Index 2.7 on 5-2025 3.7, 4.1, 3.7, 3.2, 3.2, 3.9, 3.5, 4.2, 4.0, 2.7
5yr5yr Inflation Expectations 2.3 on 6/24/2025 2.3, 2.2, 2.2, 2.2, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3


Note: Indicators are updated daily at 6:00 am Eastern time.
*Indicators rated as N/A may not themselves suggest changes in the business cycle, but should be monitored nonetheless.
Last Update on: 06/25/2025