Indicators | Last Recession

Recessionary signal Warning signal Expansionary signal N/A*

Leading Indicators

Leading Index for the United States 99.9 on 1-2024 99.0, 99.1, 99.2, 99.3, 99.4, 99.5, 99.5, 99.6, 99.7, 99.9

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 0.8 on 3-2025 0.3, 0.4, 0.3, 0.4, 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, 0.3, 0.2, 0.8

Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.0 on 3-2025 -0.2, -0.3, -0.0, -0.2, -0.5, -0.0, 0.4, -0.3, 0.2, -0.0

Employment Indicators

Civilian Unemployment Rate 7.7 percent change yoy on 4-2025 20.0, 13.5, 7.9, 5.1, 13.5, 7.9, 8.1, 5.1, 7.7, 7.7

U-6 Unemployment Rate 5.4 percent change yoy on 4-2025 16.4, 9.9, 10.0, 6.9, 10.0, 4.2, 4.2, 9.6, 8.2, 5.4

Total Nonfarm Employment 177.0 change period over period on 4-2025 88.0, 71.0, 240.0, 44.0, 261.0, 323.0, 111.0, 102.0, 185.0, 177.0

4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims 5.8 percent change yoy on 5/03/2025 7.7, 8.6, 7.4, 5.3, 3.4, 3.6, 2.8, 3.2, 7.5, 5.8

Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts) 1.4 percent change yoy on 3-2025 2.8, 2.5, 2.2, 2.0, 2.0, 1.7, 1.6, 1.0, 1.0, 1.4

Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees -0.2 percent change yoy on 4-2025 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, -0.2, 0.5, 0.5, 0.3, 0.2, 0.5, -0.2

Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) 4.1 percent change yoy on 4-2025 4.0, 4.2, 4.2, 4.2, 4.1, 4.0, 4.0, 4.2, 3.9, 4.1

Production Indicators

Industrial Production Index 1.3 percent change yoy on 3-2025 0.9, -0.5, -0.1, -0.7, -0.4, -0.9, 0.5, 1.8, 1.5, 1.3

Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries 0.6 percent change yoy on 3-2025 3.1, -2.4, -1.6, 1.4, 8.9, 1.3, -0.4, -2.3, 1.0, 0.6

Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods 32.2 percent change yoy on 3-2025 -34.9, 1.6, -0.8, -12.2, 1.7, -21.1, -16.0, 9.2, 3.4, 32.2

Consumer Indicators

Real Person Consumption Expenditures 3.3 percent change yoy on 3-2025 2.9, 2.8, 2.9, 3.2, 3.1, 3.1, 3.1, 3.1, 2.9, 3.3

Real Retail and Food Services Sales 2.4 percent change yoy on 3-2025 -0.9, 0.1, -0.7, -0.4, 0.5, 1.2, 1.7, 1.5, 1.0, 2.4

Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) 4.9 percent change yoy on 3-2025 1.6, 2.9, 1.5, 1.6, 2.9, 3.9, 4.7, 4.6, 4.0, 4.9

Total Vehicle Sales 7.6 percent change yoy on 4-2025 0.3, -1.7, 0.5, 4.9, 7.6, 5.7, 3.2, 1.4, 13.3, 7.6

Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores 1.8 percent change yoy on 3-2025 0.7, 3.7, -0.6, -4.9, -2.1, 1.9, 5.4, -3.1, -3.2, 1.8

Residential Construction Indicators

New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits -1.2 percent change yoy on 3-2025 -2.6, -6.3, -6.8, -5.9, -7.5, -1.0, -3.1, -2.3, -6.7, -1.2

Nonperforming Total Loans (past due 90+ days plus nonaccrual) to Total Loans 1.1 on 7/01/2020 1.1

Credit and Financial Indicators

10-Year US Treasury 4.4 on 5/08/2025 4.3, 4.2, 4.2, 4.2, 4.2, 4.3, 4.4, 4.3, 4.3, 4.4

Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) 0.0 on 5/09/2025 -0.1, -0.1, -0.1, -0.1, 0.0, 0.0, -0.0, -0.1, 0.0, 0.0

Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) 0.5 on 5/09/2025 0.6, 0.5, 0.6, 0.6, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5

M2 Money Stock 4.1 percent change yoy on 3-2025 1.4, 1.6, 2.1, 2.7, 3.1, 3.7, 3.8, 3.9, 3.9, 4.1

All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets -8.7 percent change yoy on 5/07/2025 -10.4, -10.4, -10.1, -9.9, -9.6, -9.6, -9.2, -9.1, -8.9, -8.7

Kansas City Financial Stress Index 0.1 on 4-2025 -0.3, -0.4, -0.4, -0.4, -0.4, -0.8, -0.8, -0.8, -0.6, 0.1

Chicago National Financial Conditions Index -0.4 on 5/02/2025 -0.6, -0.6, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.4, -0.4, -0.4, -0.4

St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c) -0.3 on 5/02/2025 -0.5, -0.4, -0.2, -0.6, -0.6, 0.1, 0.6, -0.2, -0.3, -0.3

Inflation Indicators

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) 2.4 percent change yoy on 3-2025 3.0, 2.9, 2.6, 2.4, 2.6, 2.7, 2.9, 3.0, 2.8, 2.4

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) 2.8 percent change yoy on 3-2025 3.3, 3.2, 3.3, 3.3, 3.3, 3.3, 3.2, 3.3, 3.1, 2.8

PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy) 2.6 percent change yoy on 3-2025 2.6, 2.7, 2.7, 2.7, 2.8, 2.8, 2.9, 2.7, 3.0, 2.6

Median Consumer Price Index 4.2 on 3-2025 2.5, 2.6, 3.7, 4.1, 3.7, 3.2, 3.2, 3.9, 3.5, 4.2

5yr5yr Inflation Expectations 2.2 on 5/09/2025 2.2, 2.2, 2.2, 2.2, 2.2, 2.2, 2.2, 2.2, 2.2, 2.2

Note: Indicators are updated daily at 6:00 am Eastern time.
*Indicators rated as N/A may not themselves suggest changes in the business cycle, but should be monitored nonetheless.