This is the daily update for today, January 30, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Risk
Based on the data provided, there are several economic indicators that suggest a potential risk of recession in the United States.
The Leading Index for the United States has been steadily increasing from 99.1 to 99.9 over the last year, which is a positive sign. However, other key indicators such as the Total Nonfarm Employment, which has shown significant fluctuations, and the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) have not shown substantial growth, indicating a potential slowdown in economic activities. Additionally, the unemployment rates, such as the U-6 Unemployment Rate, have been fluctuating, with a sharp increase in November, suggesting potential challenges in the job market. Furthermore, the M2 Money Stock has been relatively stable, but the Federal Reserve's Total Assets have shown a continuous decline over the past few months. It’s worth noting that the Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr), an indicator used to predict economic downturns, has remained relatively steady around 0.6, reflecting a consistent level of risk.
In summary, while some indicators suggest positive economic growth, the inconsistent trends in key economic measures such as employment, inflation, and financial conditions, alongside a decline in various sectors, including housing and federal assets, indicate a potential risk of recession in the near future. It is essential for policymakers to closely monitor these indicators and take necessary actions to mitigate the risk of an economic slowdown.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.