This is the daily update for today, February 18, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Recession
Based on the provided economic data sourced from various economic indices, there are multiple signs that point towards potential economic challenges. Indicators such as the Leading Index for the United States, which is utilized as a measure to anticipate economic trends, is showing a steady increase, reaching 99.9, which is considered a warning sign for a potential recession. Furthermore, data on the Civilian Unemployment Rate, U-6 Unemployment Rate, and Total Nonfarm Employment suggest ominous trends. The Civilian Unemployment Rate has seen a considerable increase over the past few months, reaching 7.5%. U-6 Unemployment Rate, indicating total unemployed, marginally attached to the labor force, and part-time employed for economic reasons, also exhibits a concerning rise of up to 6.7%, raising the risk of recession. Moreover, the Total Nonfarm Employment has seen fluctuating negative growth, which further contributes to the warning signals for a potential recession.
The trends in the data portraying aspects such as the Consumer Price Index and Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (particularly less food and energy) exhibit a consistent and significant upward trajectory, highlighting inflationary pressures in the economy. When combined with the decline in the 10-Year US Treasury yield, the Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo), and the Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr), the overall economic picture points towards strained financial conditions. Additionally, indices such as M2 Money Stock and the All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets exhibit potential warning signs for an impending recession. These datasets highlight increasing risk factors, signaling prospective economic downturns. Therefore, comprehensive analysis would suggest that the current economic data reflects a heightened probability of facing a recession in the near future, based on the metric trends across varied economic indicators.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.