This is the daily update for today, November 27, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Worrisome
Based on the extensive data presented, the probability of a recession in the near future is concerning. Many economic indicators are pointing towards warning signs for a potential downturn. The Leading Index for the United States, which reflects economic activity, has been near the threshold level that historically predicts an impending recession. Additionally, the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities have been steadily increasing, indicating an elevated risk. Moreover, several employment-related indicators, such as the Civilian Unemployment Rate and U-6 Unemployment Rate, have shown erratic behavior and increased volatility, which is often symptomatic of an unstable economy.
The Manufacturing sector, crucial to economic stability, is also exhibiting signs of strain. This can be observed in the Total Nonfarm Employment data, which portrays inconsistent trends, and the Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees, which has shown negative growth in recent months. Other concerning data includes the Producer Price Index, which saw an increase in the rate of inflation, and the Industrial Production Index, where the growth percentage has stabilized at a relatively low level. Furthermore, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers and the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers less food & energy have both displayed a consistent increase in the year-over-year basis, indicating potential rising inflationary pressures that could negatively impact consumer spending and economic growth. The combination of these factors raises red flags and emphasizes the need for continual monitoring of the economic situation to mitigate the potential impact of a recession.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.