This is the daily update for today, November 23, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Stressful
Based on the data provided, there are several indicators showing signs of economic stress that could potentially lead to a recession. The leading index for the United States shows a stagnant trend hovering around the 99.0 mark, which is a crucial threshold for predicting a recession, as values below 99.0 are considered to be a warning sign. Additionally, looking at the unemployment rates, both the civilian unemployment rate and the U-6 unemployment rate have been trending upwards, with the U-6 unemployment rate surpassing the 2.0 warning threshold. Another significant point is the change in the Total Nonfarm Employment trend, which has been fluctuating and recently turned negative. This can serve as an indicator of a weakening labor market and potential economic downturn.
Moreover, examining the financial sector, the Kansas City Financial Stress Index and the St. Louis Financial Stress Index both indicate negative values, which signify a relatively stable financial environment. On the other hand, the Chicago National Financial Conditions Index has remained unchanged at -0.5, suggesting persistent financial stress. Additionally, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) is consistently above 2.5%, indicating a high level of inflation. This is further exacerbated by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy), which has also exceeded 3.0% consistently. Combined, these statistics provide in-depth insight into the current economic climate, painting a worrying picture and indicating a significant risk of a looming recession.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.