This is the daily update for today, March 2, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy:
The data present a mixed but cautiously elevated recession signal. Several conventional early-warning indicators are flashing caution: the yield curve (10yr–3mo) has narrowed well below historical comfort levels, broad money growth (M2) is running below the 5% threshold, real personal income growth has slowed to near-zero, retail activity and vehicle sales have decelerated, and housing permits remain negative year-over-year. At the same time, financial stress measures are low and headline activity indicators — payroll gains, industrial production, nondefense capital goods orders, and consumer spending — remain positive in many recent months. Wage growth and core inflation are still elevated, which complicates the outlook for monetary policy and could squeeze households if growth softens further.
Taken together, these signals point to an elevated but not immediate/high probability of recession: the economy appears to be slowing with several leading indicators in the warning zone, but there is not yet broad-based collapse in activity or a spike in financial stress that would make a recession imminent. If current trends persist or worsen (continued declines in real income, retail sales, housing, and a further tightening of credit conditions), the risk could rise materially over the next 6–12 months. Key items to watch for a meaningful rise in recession odds are sustained weakness in payrolls and income, further deterioration in consumer spending and housing, and any widening of financial stress.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.