This is the daily update for today, December 22, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Cautionary
After reviewing a variety of economic indicators, it's notable that certain factors have historically been indicative of an impending recession. First, the Federal Reserve's Total Assets show a consistent decline in recent months with a year-over-year decrease, posing a considerable warning sign. Additionally, the St. Louis and Kansas City Financial Stress Index both portray negative values, indicating potential economic instability. Moreover, examining the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, there has been a consistent upward trend, with higher values implying a potential decrease in consumer spending power and economic growth.
On the other hand, there are some positive signals including the robust growth in the Retail Trade, particularly in the electronics and appliance sector. Furthermore, the increase in the Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods indicates potential business confidence and investment in productive capacity. However, a balanced perspective suggests vigilance for mounting recessionary pressures. Therefore, it's prudent to closely monitor these indicators in the coming months to form a comprehensive assessment of the economic climate and foresee potential recessionary trends.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.