This is the daily update for today, December 4, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Stable
Based on the data provided, it is essential to carefully consider the indicators to assess the likelihood of a recession in the US. Firstly, looking at the data on the Leading Index for the United States, we observe a consistent increase over the months, which is a positive sign and could indicate economic growth. On the other hand, the Smoothed US Recession Probabilities have been relatively low, signaling a lower risk of recession. Consequently, this seems to align with the data on the Civilian Unemployment Rate and U-6 Unemployment Rate, which have been relatively stable. Additionally, the Real Personal Income and Industrial Production Index have also shown modest growth, supporting the notion that the economy is maintaining its trajectory.
However, there are a few concerning aspects to consider. The Total Nonfarm Employment has displayed inconsistent performance with unexpected declines, which could cause some uncertainty. The All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets show consistent negative growth over the year, which could also be a reason for concern. Finally, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers has been steadily increasing, indicating potentially higher inflation, which may impact consumer spending and investment. Overall, while some indicators suggest stable growth, others indicate potential challenges that could lead to a recession. Therefore, a cautious and comprehensive assessment of these factors is vital for gauging the probability of a recession in the near future.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.