This is the daily update for today, November 20, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Recession
Based on a comprehensive analysis of various economic indicators, there are several concerning signs that suggest an increased risk of an economic downturn or recession. Looking at the data, the financial stress indices, such as the Kansas City Financial Stress Index, the Chicago National Financial Conditions Index, and the St. Louis Financial Stress Index, have shown a consistent steady increase in the recent months. These indices serve as an early warning signal for economic trouble and suggest heightened financial market stress. The All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets have seen a decrease by approximately 7.2% on a year-over-year basis, a decline that has lingered for several months, indicating a significant slowdown in financial activity. Furthermore, several other key economic indicators, such as the Civilian Unemployment Rate, the Industrial Production Index, and the M2 Money Stock, have not displayed strong growth, potentially signaling a deceleration in economic activity.
Additionally, the momentum of major economic indicators, including the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers and the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers less Food & Energy, has progressively tapered off, touching levels that are historically associated with economic slowdowns. In contrast, positive factors such as the yield curve and the total vehicle sales are demonstrating some resilience. The 10-Year US Treasury rate, for instance, continues to remain relatively high, performing well despite concerns about economic stability. It is critical to monitor these indicators closely for any sustained reversal or further significant deterioration, as they will provide valuable insights into the potential timing and severity of a recession. Overall, while some indicators are signaling potential headwinds for the economy, others remain stable, making it essential to carefully assess the various standing factors influencing the economy's trajectory.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.