This is the daily update for today, January 16, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Mixed
Based on the various economic indicators, there are mixed signals on the probability of a recession in the near future. Some key economic variables such as the Leading Index, Unemployment Rate, and Financial Stress Indices have shown fluctuations which are often associated with economic downturns. On the other hand, other indicators such as the Retail Sales and Industrial Production Index have been relatively stable. Therefore, this makes it difficult to ascertain a definitive trend in the economy. Despite this, the data from the Yield Curve, which is a reliable predictor of recessions in the past, does not indicate any imminent downturn at this moment.
Another indicator that molds the prediction is the Consumer Price Index. It showcases a consistent rise over the observation period, but this measure could potentially signal upcoming economic challenges. However, keeping an eye on M2 Money Stock and All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets, which have remained relatively steady, could hint at a more optimistic outlook. It is vital to note that each of these data points provides a small piece of a much larger and complex economic puzzle. Therefore, while the data offers some insight, it is essential to consider it in the context of the broader economic landscape before arriving at any definitive conclusions regarding the potential of a recession occurring.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.