This is the daily update for today, February 19, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Stable
After analyzing a variety of economic indicators, the probability of a recession seems to be low based on the data. Important indicators such as the Leading Index for the United States, the Civilian Unemployment Rate, the U-6 Unemployment Rate, and the Total Nonfarm Employment are all within reasonable ranges, suggesting a fairly stable economic outlook. Additionally, the Real Personal Income, Real Retail and Food Services Sales, and the Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) data remains consistent, showing positive growth trends. The relatively stable overall Financial Stress Index and National Financial Conditions Index also support the notion that the economy is maintaining a solid foundation.
However, some caution must be exercised, as certain indicators, such as the Industrial Production Index and the Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods, are showing slightly more mixed or negative signals. Moreover, there has been a noticeable decline in All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets, suggesting a slower growth in money stock. This may warrant further monitoring as a prolonged decrease in asset value could signal a shift in financial stability. Overall, while these indicators don't overwhelmingly point towards a recession, it's important to continue closely monitoring the economy to ensure a sustainable and consistent growth trajectory.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.