Daily Update

This is the daily update for today, February 14, 2025.

One word that discribes the US economy: Stable

Based on the data analyzed, the probability of a recession seems to be relatively low as of the recent months. Most of the economic indicators, including employment rates, retail sales, and manufacturing activity, have shown positive or steady growth. The Leading Index for the United States, Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, and the Kansas City Financial Stress Index, for example, have continued to remain within stable or positive ranges, indicating overall economic stability. Furthermore, key economic factors such as the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) and the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) have also demonstrated a relatively steady rate of change, suggesting that inflationary pressures are being managed effectively.

Additionally, the recent data on the 10-Year US Treasury and Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) also show stable and sustainable numbers, indicating that longer-term investment outlooks remain positive. However, given the unpredictable nature of the economy and various external factors that can influence economic conditions, continued monitoring and evaluation of these indicators will be critical in determining the future trajectory of the economy. Thus, while the current landscape appears to be offering reasons for optimism, it is essential to remain cautious and attentive to any shifts in these indicators that may indicate a change in economic conditions moving forward.

Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.



One Word Trends

Every day we ask ChatGPT one word that describes the U.S. economy. This chart shows the trend of that one word.