This is the daily update for today, February 11, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Uncertain
Based on the data provided, there are several indicators that suggest the possibility of an upcoming recession. The Leading Index for the United States, which tracks various economic indicators, has remained relatively flat, showing minimal growth over the past year. Additionally, the Kansas City Financial Stress Index has consistently recorded negative values, indicating a degree of economic strain. Moreover, the data also reveals declining trends in certain sectors. For instance, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers has seen an increase in the year-over-year percentage change, which could potentially act as a red flag for a slowdown in economic activity.
The Civilian and U-6 Unemployment Rates have shown fluctuating patterns, with some months experiencing notably high unemployment figures, which has historically preceded economic downturns in the past. Another noteworthy sign is the negative changes in the Total Nonfarm Employment data, indicating a decline in employment opportunities over the past year. Lastly, the Chicago National Financial Conditions Index and the St. Louis Financial Stress Index have shown consistent negative values, hinting at broader economic challenges. These combined factors, although not conclusive, suggest the need for close monitoring of economic conditions, as they indicate the possibility of a recession on the horizon.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.