This is the daily update for today, January 20, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Warning
After analyzing multiple economic indicators, there are indications that the US might be at risk of entering a recession. Among the key indicators analyzed, the Leading Index for the United States, which has shown a flat trend, hinting at a potential slowdown in economic activity. Additionally, data from smoothed US recession probabilities also indicates a slight upward trend, potentially signifying increased economic risks. Further, the 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims has shown a slight increase, and the data from the Civilian Unemployment Rate and U-6 Unemployment Rate have shown some erratic movements, all of which are potential red flags. The data from the Industrial Production Index has witnessed fluctuations as well, and the Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods and for Nondefense Capital Goods has shown mixed trends. Additionally, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers has shown a consistent increase which could signal inflationary pressures that might impact economic stability.
Moreover, the data from the Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) and (10yr to 2yr) show a trend of negative numbers, which often indicates a potential recession. This is further corroborated by the sharp decline in the All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets, along with data from the St. Louis Financial Stress Index showing consistent negative values. The Chicago National Financial Conditions Index and the Kansas City Financial Stress Index have shown decreased values, adding additional weight to the possibility of an upcoming recession. However, some data, such as M2 Money Stock and Real Personal Income, provides somewhat favorable signs. Overall, although the analysis of the data does not offer a definitive prediction, there are several warning signals prompting vigilance and further monitoring of economic activity for potential recessionary developments.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.