This is the daily update for today, February 15, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Concerning
Based on the economic indicators that we have examined, there is a potential concern regarding the probability of a recession. Several key economic indicators, such as the Leading Index for the United States and the Civilian Unemployment Rate, have displayed warning signs with values below the threshold, which suggest a potential risk of recession. Additionally, other crucial data points, including the U-6 Unemployment Rate and the All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets, also reveal distressing trends. There are some positive signs regarding certain indicators such as the Industrial Production Index and the New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits, which show improvement, minimizing the recession risk.
Another area of concern lies with the 10-Year U.S. Treasury, which has dipped below the threshold, indicating a potential heightened risk of recession. Furthermore, the Financial Stress Indices, such as the Kansas City Financial Stress Index and the Chicago National Financial Conditions Index, have reflected growing stress in the financial market, adding to the overall concern. This comprehensive analysis shows several warning signs that indicate a potential rise in the risk of a recession. The careful monitoring of these indicators will be vital in understanding the trajectory of the economy and making informed decisions moving forward.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.