Daily Update

This is the daily update for today, November 13, 2024.

One word that discribes the US economy: Weak

Based on the provided economic indicators, there are several warning signs that might indicate an increased probability of an upcoming recession in the US. Multiple key measures such as the Leading Index, Real Retail and Food Services Sales, Real Person Consumption Expenditures, and Industrial Production Index have all demonstrated less than optimal results. The data indicates lower than expected values, with a few indicators even having negative changes year over year. For instance, the Leading Index, an important predictor of economic activity, has been hovering at just around the 99.0 mark for several months, which is concerning as this is close to the level that is considered a warning sign for a recession. Similarly, the Total Vehicle Sales has also been fluctuating with several months of negative percentage change year over year, indicating a decline in sales.

Additionally, some economic indicators such as the M2 Money Stock and the All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets have also not lived up to expectations, with negative year-over-year percentage changes that could signal a potential economic downturn. The consumer price index, while not indicating a recession on its own, does show a consistent decrease in year-over-year percentage change, which could reflect a slowing economy. When taken as a whole, these economic indicators paint a worrisome picture, suggesting that there is a heightened vulnerability to an oncoming recession over the upcoming months.

Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.



One Word Trends

Every day we ask ChatGPT one word that describes the U.S. economy. This chart shows the trend of that one word.