This is the daily update for today, December 10, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Mixed
Based on the analysis of the various economic indicators, it is important to note that there are certain signs that suggest a possibility of an upcoming recession. The housing sector is showing signs of weakening, as seen in the reduction in the New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits. In addition, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) has been consistently increasing over the months, and while inflation can sometimes lead to a slowdown in economic activity, the sharp rise can indicate potential concerns about the state of the economy in the near future. However, it’s important to note that while several indicators are approaching concerning levels, they are still within a range that does not necessarily signal an impending recession.
On the other hand, there are some positive signs observed as well. For instance, the Total Vehicle Sales data, which is a measure of consumer spending, has shown varying patterns, indicating that consumer spending continues but at a slower pace. Additionally, the M2 Money Stock, which is a measure of money supply, has continued to grow steadily over the past few months, suggesting that there is liquidity in the market, which can help stimulate economic growth. The Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) has remained stable, indicating a lower risk of recession in the near future.
In conclusion, while there are undeniable signs that emphasize caution and the need for careful monitoring of the economic environment, the overall situation appears to be mixed at the moment. This indicates potential reasons to be both cautious and optimistic about the future state of the economy.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.