This is the daily update for today, January 30, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Mixed
Based on the analysis of various economic indicators, such as the Leading Index, Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production Index, M2 Money Stock, and several financial stress indices, it can be observed that there is a mixed outlook for the probability of a recession. The Leading Index for the United States has shown continuous improvement over the past year, with a value of 99.9 in the most recent reading, indicating a positive economic outlook. However, the Civilian Unemployment Rate and U-6 Unemployment Rate have shown a spike in unemployment, which can be an indicator of economic instability. Furthermore, the Real Personal Income and Real Retail and Food Services Sales have shown a continuous decline over the past months, which can further contribute to a potential economic downturn.
The financial stress indices, such as the Kansas City Financial Stress Index and Chicago National Financial Conditions Index, present a stable outlook, with no significant indications of financial stress levels. However, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) and Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) have consistently remained above the suggested warning levels, indicating potential inflationary pressure on the economy. Therefore, while some indicators point to positive economic stability, others suggest a risk of recession. Considering these mixed signals, it is essential to closely monitor the economic indicators for further clarity on the likelihood of a recession in the near future.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.