This is the daily update for today, January 12, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Concern
Based on the economic indicators, there are signs of concern regarding the probability of a recession in the near future. Various factors should be considered when evaluating this possibility. Several key economic indicators such as the Leading Index for the United States and the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities are showing some warning signals. The data presented by the Leading Index for the United States has sustained a value hovering around 99, which, according to its parameters, is a warning sign for a potential recession. Conversely, the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities index has been rising gradually above 1.0, indicating an increased risk of recession. Additionally, the Civilian Unemployment Rate has recently spiked to 10.3%, signaling potential turmoil in the job market. This data is further supported by the U-6 Unemployment Rate, which has shown a sharp increase, surpassing 13%, indicating a significant rise in unemployment and underemployment.
On the other hand, not all indicators point to a similar conclusion. Some indicators, such as the Real Retail and Food Services Sales and Retail Sales (ex food services), have maintained positive growth, suggesting robust consumer spending. However, considering the combination of various concerning indicators, further attention should be paid to potential vulnerabilities in the economy. This includes aspects such as reduced consumer spending on certain categories, as well as fluctuations in employment rates, which may indicate an impending economic downturn. It is important for policymakers and economic analysts to closely monitor these indicators and take appropriate measures to mitigate the potential impact of an economic downturn.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.