This is the daily update for today, February 8, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Deteriorating
After analyzing multiple economic indicators, there is a growing concern about the possibility of a recession in the near future. Several key metrics suggest a significant risk to the economy. For example, the Leading Index for the United States has reached a level above 99.0, which is considered a warning sign for a potential recession. Additionally, the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, which spiked to 0.9, indicate an increased likelihood of a downturn. Moreover, the Civilian Unemployment Rate and the U-6 Unemployment Rate have both witnessed substantial increases, with the U-6 rate exceeding 2.0, further hinting at potential economic strain. The Total Nonfarm Employment has shown inconsistency, with a fluctuating trend, marking a period of economic instability. Consumer spending, reflected in the Real Retail and Food Services Sales index, has declined, also signaling potential contraction.
In addition, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers has been steadily increasing, pointing toward rising inflation, which can hamper overall economic growth. And, the yield curve data, especially the 10-Year US Treasury and Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) data, have displayed significant decreases, which historically has preceded economic contractions. These combined signals indicate that the economy may be entering a period of recession. It is crucial for policymakers and businesses to closely monitor these indicators and take appropriate measures to mitigate the potential impact of a recession.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.