This is the daily update for today, January 31, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Risky
Based on the data provided, there are several indicators that suggest a potential risk of a recession in the US economy. When we look at the economic indicators such as the Leading Index for the United States, there has been a consistent increase, though it is just slightly above the warning threshold, indicating a potential risk of recession. Similarly, the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities have been consistently increasing, indicating a higher risk of recession.
Moreover, unemployment rates have been fluctuating, where the Civilian Unemployment Rate and U-6 Unemployment Rate have seen significant increases in some months, which is indicative of a weakening labor market. Additionally, the Retail Sales, particularly the Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores, and Retail Sales: Total (ex food services), have shown some decrease in growth, which might impact consumer spending and economic health.
Furthermore, there have been signs of strain in the financial market, with indices like the Kansas City Financial Stress Index, Chicago National Financial Conditions Index, and St. Louis Financial Stress Index showing consistent negative numbers, indicating potential financial stress. Lastly, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers has been steadily increasing, which could result in decreased consumer spending and investment. Overall, these factors combined indicate that there is a growing risk of a recession in the US economy.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.