This is the daily update for today, January 13, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Mixed
Looking at a variety of economic indicators, there is a mixed picture regarding the probability of a recession in the near future. Some of the data, such as the Real Retail and Food Services Sales and Retail Sales excluding food services, show relatively stable growth rates of around 1-2%, which indicates a healthy consumer spending rate. However, when considering the inflation rates, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) and the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) have been observed at elevated levels around 3%. This could potentially signal weakening purchasing power and an increased cost of living for consumers, which might affect their spending behaviors and lead to economic slowdown. Furthermore, data from the financial sector such as the yield curve and several financial stress indices present a mixed outlook, with some indicators pointing to potential economic stress, while others indicate a more balanced financial situation.
The employment sector also presents a mixed outlook, with the Unemployment Rate and the U-6 Unemployment Rate showing varied changes. A sudden decrease in manufacturing hours also raises concerns. However, the Total Vehicle Sales indicate relatively stable positive growth, implying a steady demand for big-ticket items. Other economic indicators such as Real Personal Income, Industrial Production, and New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits also exhibit mixed signals, all contributing to the unclear outlook on the possibility of a recession.
Overall, the data suggests there are signs of potential economic strains, but the situation is not unambiguously pointing towards a recession. Hence, monitoring the performance of these indicators going forward will be crucial in assessing the likelihood of an economic slowdown.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.