This is the daily update for today, December 25, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Deteriorating
Based on the data provided, there are several indicators suggesting a growing risk of a recession. The leading indicators for the United States have been treading close to a level that signals an impending downturn. The Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities also showed an increasing risk in the most recent months, which implies a higher likelihood of recession. Additionally, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index has been consistently below zero lately, indicating a high risk of recession. Furthermore, the civilian unemployment rate and the U-6 unemployment rate have both experienced fluctuations and are approaching levels that often foreshadow an economic downturn. The data on total nonfarm employment and 4-week moving average of initial claims also shows a mixed pattern, signaling potential instability in the labor market, which can be a precursor to a recession.
The overall trend is also reflected in the economic indicators related to consumer behavior. The Retail Trade and Vehicle Sales are showing signs of decline, while the Retail Sales for Electronics and Appliances have been consistently low in recent months. However, it is noteworthy that the Consumer Price Index, while seeing a slight uptick, has not yet elevated to levels that traditionally indicate a high risk of recession, suggesting the inflation pressure in the country.
Conclusively, while no single indicator can predict a recession, taken together, the data presents a comprehensive overview of potential economic instability. There is a consistent pattern across multiple economic indicators suggesting a growing risk of recession. However, it is important to carefully monitor these indicators over time to ascertain if the trend towards a recession continues or not.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.