This is the daily update for today, February 24, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Concerning
Based on an assessment of various economic indicators, there seems to be a growing concern about the possibility of a recession. Looking at the economic data, several factors indicate potential warning signs. For instance, the leading index for the US exhibits stagnant growth, having shown marginal fluctuations around 99.5 for several months, which is considered a cautionary zone for a looming recession. Furthermore, the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities have been trending upwards, reaching 0.9%, indicating an elevated risk of recession. Simultaneously, the civilian unemployment rate, a critical economic marker, spiked above 10%, marking a clear and worrisome warning for an economic downturn. Another concerning factor is the U-6 unemployment rate, which also recorded an anomaly with a sudden 13% spike, indicating widespread economic distress.
Moreover, glaring declines in several important data points like the average weekly hours of manufacturing employees and the value of manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods suggest a potential slowdown in economic activity. The data also indicates a decline in real retail and food services sales, further pointing to weakening consumer activity. With several key economic indicators showing signs of stress, there should be a heightened awareness of the potential for a recession in the near future, prompting the need for closer monitoring of economic trends and developments.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.