This is the daily update for today, January 23, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Concern
Based on the data provided, the probability of a recession in the near future appears to be a cause for concern. Several economic indicators, such as the Leading Index, the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, are hovering around or slightly below the warning threshold values, signifying a potential economic downturn. For instance, the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities is climbing, while the Chicago Fed National Activity Index has been consistently negative.
Additionally, other vital indicators such as the Civilian Unemployment Rate, the U-6 Unemployment Rate, and the Total Nonfarm Employment have displayed erratic behaviors during the analyzed period, pointing towards economic instability. Furthermore, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers has been steadily increasing, indicating rising inflationary pressures, which have historically been an early sign of economic downturns. On a positive note, the Real Person Consumption Expenditures and Real Retail and Food Services Sales are maintaining consistent growth values, and are not indicating a slowdown in consumer spending.
In conclusion, the data suggests a mixed economic outlook with several key indicators pointing towards a looming recession. However, it's important to regularly monitor these economic indicators to accurately predict possible economic outcomes.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.