This is the daily update for today, December 2, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Stable
Based on the analysis of various economic indicators, it is essential to address the current probabilities of a recession for the US economy. The leading indicators such as the Leading Index for the United States, which has been showing consistent positive growth above the warning level and the Smoothed US Recession Probabilities, indicating low risk, provide an optimistic outlook for economic prospects. Additionally, the data on Civilian Unemployment Rate, U-6 Unemployment Rate, and Total Nonfarm Employment presents a mixed picture. The unemployment rates have remained relatively steady, while the Total Nonfarm Employment data shows somewhat erratic behavior. The Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees and Average Hourly Earnings data indicate that the economy's performance has remained balanced over the recent months.
However, it is crucial to acknowledge certain concerning signs. The slowdown in the Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods and New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits seems to be lagging behind. Moreover, the data on Yield Curve, particularly the ongoing inversion in the 10yr to 3mo curve, raises red flags. Additional care is needed concerning changes in the All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets and in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers measures. While the economy currently seems resilient, close monitoring of the mentioned metrics is important to make informed predictions about the potential recession.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.