This is the daily update for today, February 23, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Stable
Based on the analysis of various economic indicators, the probability of a recession seems relatively low. The leading economic index, which provides an overview of the overall economic activity, has consistently remained above the warning threshold, signaling economic stability. Additionally, the smoothed recession probabilities remain well below the suggested thresholds, indicating a lower risk of an imminent recession. The civilian unemployment rate and the U-6 unemployment rate have shown fluctuations; however, they are both within the safe range.
Furthermore, the real personal income and real retail sales have also displayed relatively healthy growth rates, which are positive signs for economic stability. Other important indicators such as industrial production index, manufacturing orders, and the yield curve, have also been relatively stable. Overall, when observing the various economic indicators, the signs seem to point towards a healthy and stable economic environment, with a lower probability of an upcoming recession. It is important to continue monitoring these indicators to understand any future shifts in the economic landscape.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.