This is the daily update for today, December 3, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Recession
Based on the extensive economic data provided, there is a robust indication of the potential for a future recession. Several key factors are pointing towards potential economic downturn. First, The Leading Index for the United States has remained very close to 99 and has gradually increased over the past several months. This can indicate that the economy is plateauing. Secondly, the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities have risen consistently since the beginning of the year and reached levels close to 1.0 in recent months, suggesting potential economic instability. Moreover, the Civilian Unemployment Rate and U-6 Unemployment Rate both exhibit concerning trends - while the former has displayed some volatility, the latter has consistently been above 3.0, indicating a potential slowdown in the job market. Additionally, new private housing unit permits have shown a downward trend in recent months, which is often an early indicator of an economic recession. Furthermore, the total vehicle sales figures display inconsistency, with a noticeable decline in recent months. Additionally, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) and the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) have been consistently surpassing the 2.5% threshold over the last few months, suggesting inflationary pressure that can trigger an economic downturn.
The data reveals a mix of warning signals and potential risk factors that indicate the possibility of an impending recession. However, while the data presents a significant chance of a recession based on historical patterns, it is important to remember that economic conditions are constantly evolving and affected by multiple factors. Nonetheless, both historical trends and recent indicators suggest the potential for an economic slowdown. Consequently, it is crucial for policymakers and businesses to closely monitor these economic indicators and make decisions driven by the current economic landscape.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.