This is the daily update for today, December 12, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Uncertain
Based on the diverse economic indicators provided, there are indications of potential risk for a recession in the near future. The materials show mixed trends in various segments of the economy, with some pointing toward potential economic instability. For example, the Leading Index for the United States has been fairly stable, suggesting a moderate level of potential risk. On the other hand, the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities has been gradually increasing in recent months, indicating an escalating risk of an economic downturn. The Civilian Unemployment Rate and U-6 Unemployment Rate have experienced fluctuations and have evidenced some red flags based on the previously set parameters, which are potentially concerning for the overall economic health. Similarly, indicators such as the Total Nonfarm Employment, the 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims, the 10-Year US Treasury, and the Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) present a mixed picture of the economic state, affecting the assessment of future economic conditions.
Concurrently, the Real Personal Income, the Industrial Production Index, and the Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods are showing relatively positive signs, but amidst the complexity of diverse economic signals, a complete analysis to predict the chances of a recession is difficult. Despite this, it is important to closely monitor the situation and observe subsequent data for a clearer insight into the current state of the economy. As a data analyst, it is essential to remain updated and continue to examine these economic indicators to draw informed conclusions and insights.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.