This is the daily update for today, December 15, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Mixed
Looking at the various economic indicators, there are mixed signals regarding the probability of a recession. The Leading Index for the United States shows a consistently increasing trend, which is considered a positive sign indicating a lower risk of recession. On the other hand, the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities have shown an upward trend in values, albeit within acceptable limits. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index has been fluctuating around the warning level, indicating a moderate risk of recession. The data for the Civilian Unemployment Rate and U-6 Unemployment Rate indicates a significant fluctuation, with values potentially suggesting an elevated risk if the trend continues. The Total Nonfarm Employment data has shown erratic fluctuations, which may point towards an uncertain economic future.
In terms of the yield curve, both the Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) and the Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) are currently within acceptable levels but have shown a slight decrease in values, warranting close monitoring. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) suggests relatively stable inflation. However, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) indicates a consistent increase in inflation rates, highlighting a potential looming risk. Finally, the St. Louis, Kansas City, and Chicago Financial Stress Indexes have remained relatively stable and below the warning threshold, which is a positive sign for economic stability.
Overall, though some indicators show signs of potentially increased risk, the mixed nature of the data suggests a need for continued monitoring and vigilance rather than definitive predictions of a recession at this time.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.