This is the daily update for today, February 8, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Risk
Based on the data provided, there are several key indicators signaling a potential risk of recession. The Leading Index for the United States has remained consistently below 100, which is a cause for concern. Additionally, the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities have been consistently above 10.0, further indicating the possibility of a recession. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index has consistently remained below 0.0, along with the Civilian Unemployment Rate, U-6 Unemployment Rate, and 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims, which have all shown significant fluctuations. Furthermore, there's been a decline in the Total Nonfarm Employment and an increase in the Real Personal Income. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (both overall and less food & energy) has been escalating, reaching potentially detrimental levels in the last year.
On the positive side, some indicators such as the Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) are still within acceptable limits, suggesting that while some data is alarming, the overall economic health may still be within manageable thresholds. However, it's important to note that many of the critical indicators are pointing to elevated risks, warranting attention and potentially proactive measures to mitigate the potential impact of an economic downturn. Vigilance and caution should be exercised to closely monitor these economic signals and take appropriate action to counteract the potential effects of a recession.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.