This is the daily update for today, November 7, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Risk
Based on the extensive analysis of various economic indicators, it is vital to consider the possibility of an economic downturn or recession. Several key factors indicate a higher risk of recession in the United States. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers has been consistently increasing, suggesting rising prices, which can correspond to reduced consumer spending and negatively impact the economy. Additionally, the Real Retail and Food Services Sales have shown slower growth, indicating potential weakening in consumer demand.
Moreover, economic indicators such as the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which recently dipped below -0.5 and the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities exceeding 1.0, raise significant concerns. The Real Personal Income and Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees have also shown mixed signals, potentially indicating a slowdown in income growth and labor market conditions.
Furthermore, critical financial indicators should also be considered, including the 10-Year US Treasury and various financial stress indices, which have shown instability. These factors collectively point towards a heightened risk of an economic recession in the near future, which should be closely monitored to mitigate potential adverse impacts.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.