This is the daily update for today, February 22, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Mixed
Based on the economic data provided, it appears that the US economy is showing mixed signals regarding the probability of a recession. Key factors such as the Leading Index, Unemployment Rate, and Industrial Production Index are generally stable or slightly positive, indicating a relatively favorable economic outlook. However, factors such as Real Personal Income, Retail Sales, and Consumer Price Index show some cause for concern, as they are showing slight signs of slowdown. The recent negative movements observed in the M2 Money Stock and the All Federal Reserve Banks' Total Assets should not be overlooked, as they can potentially signal an overall tightening of credit and liquidity in the economy.
A particularly worrisome point is the decline in Total Vehicle Sales and New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits. While the Yield Curve and the Kansas City Financial Stress Index present stable readings, they should be closely monitored in conjunction with other factors. Despite these mixed signals, the data suggests that the US economy is relatively resilient, but continued vigilance is necessary to monitor any potential downturn in the economic cycle.
In conclusion, the possibility of a US recession is not yet clear. While certain indicators suggest favorable economic conditions, others hint at potential risks. Given this mixed outlook, it is essential for policymakers and market observers to remain attentive to additional economic indicators, as well as external factors such as global economic conditions and geopolitical events, to accurately assess the likelihood of a recession in the near future.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.