This is the daily update for today, December 6, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Risky
After analyzing a diverse set of economic indicators, there is evidence suggesting a potential risk of recession in the United States. Multiple factors are indicating a negative trajectory. For instance, the Leading Index for the United States has shown a trend indicating a potential risk of recession, with readings steadily close to the warning and higher risk levels. Similarly, the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities have been showing an increase towards the much higher risk of recession category, pointing to potential economic downturns. The Civilian Unemployment Rate, particularly the U-6 Unemployment Rate, has also raised some concerns, as both have signaled cautionary readings, and the recent trend in Total Nonfarm Employment demonstrates fluctuation, showing a significant decrease. Furthermore, the 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims, a measure of job market instability, has shown some indications of elevated risk.
Moreover, economic indicators such as the Real Personal Income, Industrial Production Index, and the Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods have shown less positive results, with some indicators showing signs of slower growth or even decline. The financial indicators, including the Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo), as well as the St. Louis and Chicago Financial Stress Indexes, demonstrate a level of unease in the financial system, especially given the recent fluctuations and inconsistency.
When considered collectively, these data points likely mean that it is a crucial time to observe the economy carefully. Despite attempts by the Federal Reserve to stabilize growth, the economic indicators seem to give a cautious outlook for the economic landscape, possibly signaling an oncoming recession in the US.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.