This is the daily update for today, February 7, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Caution
Based on the data provided, it is evident that there is reason to be cautious about the potential of an upcoming recession in the US. Several key economic indicators are displaying trends that typically precede economic downturns. For instance, the Leading Index for the United States, which has been consistently hovering below the warning level of 99.0, indicates a potential economic slowdown. Additionally, the Smoothed US Recession Probabilities have shown an increasing trend, with values consistently above 0.8 in the recent months. The U-6 Unemployment Rate has seen a significant increase, and the Civilian Unemployment Rate has also been fluctuating above the warning level in the same period.
Moreover, the data related to economic activities such as Total Nonfarm Employment and the Value of Manufacturers New Orders presents concerning trends. The former exhibits inconsistent growth and decline, while the latter has experienced significant drops in the last few months. Financial stress indicators, including the increase in the Kansas City Financial Stress Index, also signal potential economic instability. When taken together, the overall data suggests a period of economic uncertainty and highlights the need for careful monitoring of these vital economic indicators in the coming months.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.