This is the daily update for today, March 8, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy:
Overall, the balance of evidence points to a low-to-moderate probability of a recession in the near term rather than a high or imminent one. Model-based recession probabilities are very low, financial-stress measures are subdued, and the yield curve is positive (not inverted), all of which historically argue against an impending recession. Several activity indicators — industrial production and nondefense capital goods orders in particular — show pockets of strength, and headline inflation has cooled to more moderate rates, reducing the chance of a disruptive policy shock.
That said, there are clear downside risks that elevate the tail probability. Real personal income growth has decelerated meaningfully, retail sales and vehicle sales have softened (including months with negative growth), and housing permits remain deeply negative — these consumer- and housing-sector weaknesses could, if they persist or deepen, tip the economy from slowdown into recession. In short: a recession is not the base case today, but the situation is fragile enough that continued deterioration in incomes, consumer spending, or housing activity would materially raise the odds; those series — together with labor-market breadth and the financial-stress readings — warrant close monitoring.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.