This is the daily update for today, January 21, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Mixed
Based on the data provided, there are mixed signals about the probability of a recession in the near future. The Leading Index for the United States, a key forecasting tool, has been steadily increasing, indicating a positive outlook. In contrast, the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, a measure of the likelihood of a recession, is at low but increasing levels, suggesting a potential higher risk. Additionally, indicators such as the Civilian Unemployment Rate and U-6 Unemployment Rate have shown fluctuations, but their latest values are elevated, warranting attention.
Several other economic indicators, such as the Total Nonfarm Employment and Industrial Production Index, have experienced volatile changes, contributing to the uncertainty. The financial stress indices, including the Kansas City Financial Stress Index and the Chicago National Financial Conditions Index, have exhibited a negative trend, whereas the M2 Money Stock has maintained a relatively stable increase.
Taken together, the data suggests a mixed and complex economic outlook. While some indicators point toward stability and growth, others suggest potential underlying risks. The conflicting signals make it challenging to concretely predict the likelihood of an impending recession. Close monitoring of the economic indicators and continued analysis is imperative for a comprehensive assessment of the current economic landscape.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.