This is the daily update for today, October 15, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Mixed
Based on the historical economic data provided, there is conflicting evidence regarding the current probability of a recession. Several key economic indicators, such as the Leading Index, the Civilian Unemployment Rate, and the Total Vehicle Sales, suggest a relatively healthy economy, as their most recent values do not meet the threshold levels that would signal an impending recession. However, other indicators such as the Real Personal Income, the Industrial Production Index, and the Retail Trade, present a less optimistic picture due to their values nearing or crossing the thresholds that indicate an increased risk of recession.
Moreover, the Chicago and Kansas City Financial Stress Indexes both show fluctuations, possibly signifying financial volatility, while the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers has shown a sustained increase, indicating potential inflationary pressures. It's important to note that while some indicators are signaling a potential slowdown, others are pointing to stability. Therefore, market observers and policymakers should continue to monitor these indicators closely to accurately assess the risk of a recession in the coming months.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.