This is the daily update for today, January 22, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Mixed
After analyzing a wide range of economic data, it is evident that there are mixed signals when it comes to predicting the probability of a recession. Looking at the Leading Index for the United States, it has been holding steady, just above the critical level of 99. This could indicate relative stability in the economy, although it is important to monitor it closely. Additionally, the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities have remained below 1.0, which is a positive sign. The data suggests there has been solid performance in key sectors, which may reduce the likelihood of an impending recession.
On the downside, other economic indicators are showing signs of concern. The Civilian Unemployment Rate and U-6 Unemployment Rate have been relatively high and volatile. Moreover, the Total Nonfarm Employment has indicated a mixed performance. Similarly, the Consumer Price Index has been steadily increasing, raising concerns about inflation. Considering all these factors together, it is difficult to provide a definitive prediction. It is essential to closely monitor these various economic indicators to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the economic landscape and to determine the probability of a recession.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.