Daily Update

This is the daily update for today, June 20, 2024.

One word that discribes the US economy: Risky

Based on the extensive data provided, there are several key indicators that appear to suggest a higher risk of an impending recession. The data demonstrates a mixed trend across different sectors of the economy, with a notable number of warning signals. One such indicator is the Leading Index for the United States, which has remained at a concerning level, hovering just around the threshold of 99.0, indicating a potential warning for a recession. Additionally, the Civilian Unemployment Rate and U-6 Unemployment Rate have shown significant increases, with the latter reaching heightened levels, further indicating a looming risk. Furthermore, while the 10-Year US Treasury has remained relatively stable, other data points such as the M2 Money Stock and the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) have demonstrated continual declines, suggesting potential economic instability.

An analysis of the data also reveals troubling signs in the housing market, as indicated by the data on New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits, which had been consistently decreasing. Additionally, the St. Louis Financial Stress Index had been exhibiting an elevated value, complemented by the Chicago National Financial Conditions Index, and the Kansas City Financial Stress Index, all showing concerning scores. An area of relative stability is seen in certain areas such as the Average Hourly Earnings, Personal Income, and the Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees, which have not exhibited a significant decline. Given the collective data from various economic sectors, it is important for policymakers and market participants to closely monitor these indicators, as they suggest a heightened probability of a looming recession unless there are significant positive shifts in key economic metrics going forward.

Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.

One Word Trends

Every day we ask ChatGPT one word that describes the U.S. economy. This chart shows the trend of that one word.