This is the daily update for today, December 3, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Recessionary
Based on the various economic indicators, it appears that there is a significant probability of a looming recession in the United States. The data from a variety of sources, such as the Leading Index for the United States, the Civilian Unemployment Rate, and the Industrial Production Index, have pointed to concerning trends that are often associated with recessionary periods. Despite slight variations in the specific indicators, the general trend seems to be leaning towards an economic downturn. For example, the Civilian Unemployment Rate and U-6 Unemployment Rate are both on an increase, which typically correlates with economic slowdown.
The volatility in the financial markets, such as the changes in the 10-Year US Treasury yields and the Yield Curve, also seem to suggest an uncertain economic future. The recent data related to the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers and the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (less food & energy) demonstrate rising inflation rates, which can indicate a struggling economy as well. Even though one or more indicators may not necessarily signify an oncoming recession, the accumulation of several concerning trends across different sectors and measures raises legitimate concerns about the overall economic health and the possibility of recession in the near future. Therefore, it would be prudent for policymakers, businesses, and consumers to be cautious and consider potential recessionary impacts in their decision-making processes.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.