This is the daily update for today, February 3, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Deteriorating
Based on the data provided, there is evidence suggesting that the probability of a recession in the United States may be increasing. Several key economic indicators point to potential challenges in the economy. The data on the Leading Index, Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index shows signs of economic slowdown and potential risk of recession. Additionally, the rise in the Civilian Unemployment Rate and the U-6 Unemployment Rate, along with negative changes in Total Nonfarm Employment, are also concerning. These indicators collectively suggest growing economic instability.
Further, data such as the Industrial Production Index and the Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods and Nondefense Capital Goods also portray a mixed and unstable economic landscape. Additionally, signals from the financial markets such as the 10-Year US Treasury and the Yield Curve also suggest potential economic challenges. The volatility in key financial indicators has been known to precede economic downturns, adding to the overall uncertainty about the future state of the economy. The combination of various metrics implies the need for cautious observation and proactive economic management.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.