This is the daily update for today, January 29, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Mixed
Based on the data presented, the current economic indicators suggest mixed prospects for the likelihood of a recession. Key indicators such as the Leading Index for the United States and the Smoothened U.S. Recession Probabilities display figures that are hovering around favorable territory, with minimal indications of an imminent recession. Furthermore, metrics such as the Civilian Unemployment Rate and the U-6 Unemployment Rate have shown occasional fluctuations but remain within stable ranges. However, other significant economic variables signal potential concerns, such as the All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets and the Consumer Price Index, both of which have displayed figures that suggest a more delicate economic climate. The recent performance of the Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) also warrants close attention, as it has demonstrated less favorable trends over the recent reporting period.
In summary, while some leading indicators remain within positive territory, suggesting a healthy economic climate, it is crucial to closely monitor shifts in the data, particularly pertaining to items like the Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) and the All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets. These specific metrics may present potential warning signs, indicating a higher risk of a recession should they continue to deviate from historical patterns. Therefore, a cautious approach to economic forecasting and proactive measures to mitigate potential downside risks may be warranted at this time.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.