This is the daily update for today, March 14, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy:
Overall the dataset is mixed but leans toward caution rather than an imminent contraction. Financial markets and stress gauges are calm — the smoothed recession probability is very low (under 1%), broad financial stress indices are negative, and the 10-year yield sits above 4% while the 10y–3mo and 10y–2yr spreads are small but still positive. At the same time several real-economy indicators are softening: housing permits are deeply negative year‑over‑year, retail/food services and some vehicle sales readings have turned negative recently, real personal income growth has fallen toward zero, and the leading index is only marginally above its recession warning threshold. Industrial production and core spending show modest positive readings, but growth is generally tepid.
Taken together, the picture points to an elevated medium‑term recession risk rather than an immediate one. The narrow but positive yield curve and low market stress reduce the probability of a near-term shock, yet persistent weakness in housing, weakening real income, and softer consumer sales increase the chance of a slowdown over the next 6–12 months. Key indicators to watch closely are the leading index, unemployment (U‑6 and initial claims), real personal income and retail spending, housing permits, and the yield‑curve spread; deterioration in several of those simultaneously would materially raise recession odds.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.