This is the daily update for today, November 26, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Recession
After examining a variety of economic indicators, it is evident that there are several warning signs that raise concerns about the possibility of an impending recession in the United States. Key factors such as the Leading Index, Civilian Unemployment Rate, U-6 Unemployment Rate, and the Total Nonfarm Employment have all demonstrated trends that could indicate an economic downturn. The Leading Index, which acts as a barometer of future economic activity, has shown a consistent increase, reaching 99.9, suggesting potential economic struggles ahead. Additionally, the Civilian Unemployment Rate and U-6 Unemployment Rate have both demonstrated fluctuating patterns and sharp changes over the past few months, with the former reaching an alarming 2.4% increase in August 2025, as well as the Total Nonfarm Employment witnessing significant fluctuations, including a decrease in job growth in June and August 2025.
Moreover, certain economic factors such as the 10-Year US Treasury and the Yield Curve have also displayed concerning signals. The 10-Year US Treasury has significantly fallen below the 5.0 threshold required to signal a recession, reaching 4.0 recently, which indicates a higher recession risk. Additionally, both the Yield Curve (10-year to 3-month) and the Yield Curve (10-year to 2-year) are revealing negative trends, indicating a potential economic downturn. It is important to closely monitor these economic indicators as they provide valuable insights that can influence financial decisions and strategies. These indicators offer valuable guidance in both personal and business settings and can aid in the implementation of proactive measures to mitigate the potential negative impact of a recession.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.