This is the daily update for today, December 23, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Stable
Based on the data provided, there is no clear indication that a recession is imminent. Several key economic indicators such as the Leading Index for the United States, the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, and the Kansas City Financial Stress Index all hover within the generally accepted safe range, showing no significant signs of an impending downturn. The Civilian Unemployment Rate and the U-6 Unemployment Rate have not exceeded the critical threshold levels, suggesting a relatively stable labor market. Moreover, Consumer Price Index figures, including data for all items and items less food and energy, do not show a concerning upward trend that could point to inflationary pressure which may precede a downturn. On the other hand, the Real Personal Income and the 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims, among others, show some mixed trends, but they do not provide a clear signal of an imminent recession.
However, the data on M2 Money Stock, New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits, and the Total Vehicle Sales show potentially troubling signs, indicating a possible vulnerability in the economy. As these trends remain mixed and the data might further evolve, it would be advisable to monitor these key indicators closely. Overall, while there are potential warning signs present, the current data does not provide conclusive evidence of an impending recession. It is essential to continue monitoring these key economic indicators in the coming months to develop a more comprehensive understanding of the economic outlook.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.