This is the daily update for today, January 19, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Deteriorating
Based on the economic data provided, there are significant indicators pointing to a potential recession on the horizon. Several crucial financial metrics, including the Leading Index, Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, U-6 Unemployment Rate, Total Nonfarm Employment, Real Personal Income, All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets, and the Kansas City Financial Stress Index, all suggest a mixed and concerning economic outlook. The most crucial factor to consider is the trend towards negative growth in various sectors that are typically indicative of recessionary periods. Additionally, while some metrics show growth, the momentum has started to slow, which is a concerning signal for the economy.
Moreover, indicators such as the 10-Year US Treasury, which has shown consistent decline, and the Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo), which has hovered around 0.5, further substantiate the likelihood of a potential economic downturn. These metrics imply that the economy is experiencing a significant decline or stagnation. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) and the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) both indicate a persistent inflation trend, which can further exacerbate economic challenges. Therefore, considering the overall trajectory of these crucial economic indicators, caution should be exercised as the accumulation of these signals suggests that the United States may be at an elevated risk of experiencing a recession in the near future.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.