This is the daily update for today, January 24, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Warning
Based on the data provided, there are several key economic indicators that suggest a potential warning for a recession in the US economy. The leading index for the United States has consistently seen incremental increases over time, which is typically indicative of a healthy economy. However, the smoothed US recession probabilities have continued to show an increase, reaching a level that suggests a much higher risk of recession. This index has been consistently climbing for the last few months, indicating a concerning trend. Furthermore, the civilian unemployment rate, U-6 unemployment rate, and total nonfarm employment data all depict negative trends that are associated with economic downturns, such as rising unemployment rates and volatile changes in employment figures.
Additionally, the consumer price index for all urban consumers, including all items and items less food and energy, has been floating around a level which, while not indicating an immediate recession, suggests concerns regarding increasing inflation rates. This data, in conjunction with the low treasury rate, relatively low average hourly earnings, and relatively high percentage change in the year-on-year basis for the Consumer Price Index, portrays a complicated economic environment. The increasing financial stress indices and changing monetary and fiscal policies suggest that the current economic climate may be experiencing turbulence, warranting a watchful eye on the potential of an impending recession.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.