This is the daily update for today, February 1, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Mixed
Based on the various economic indicators provided, there are mixed signals regarding the probability of a recession in the near future. Several key metrics such as the Leading Economic Index, Civilian Unemployment Rate, U-6 Unemployment Rate, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index have all shown potential warning signs, with some indicating a higher risk of recession. For instance, the Leading Index for the United States, which has been relatively stable for a while, is marginally above the 99.0 threshold, suggesting a relatively low risk. Conversely, the U-6 Unemployment Rate and the Civilian Unemployment Rate have witnessed an increase, with the former slightly surpassing the 2.0 marker, indicating potential cause for concern.
However, other indicators such as the 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims, the Real Personal Income (excluding current transfer receipts), and the Real Retail and Food Services Sales have shown more positive trends, suggesting a lower likelihood of recession. Additionally, the total vehicle sales, which initially appeared concerning, have exhibited signs of stabilization. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) has also remained relatively steady, with slight fluctuations over the months. While some indicators do raise concern about a possible downturn, it's important to consider the broader economic landscape for a more comprehensive assessment of the likelihood of a recession.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.