This is the daily update for today, November 28, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Deteriorating
Based on the analysis of various economic indicators, there are several signs pointing towards a higher risk of recession in the near future. The data on key economic indicators such as the Leading Index, Civilian Unemployment Rate, U-6 Unemployment Rate, Total Nonfarm Employment, Industrial Production Index, New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits and Consumer Price Index all indicate trends that historically have been correlated with a risk of recession. For example, several indicators such as a decrease in industrial production, rising unemployment rates, and lower consumer confidence, are typically associated with economic downturns. Moreover, there are multiple areas of concern: growth has been slowing, unemployment rates have been volatile, and there has been a drop in total personal income.
Additionally, financial conditions and stress indices, such as the Kansas City Financial Stress Index and the St. Louis Financial Stress Index, also indicate potential strains in the financial markets. An area of particular concern has been the significant decline in the Kansas City Financial Stress Index which illustrates an increase in financial strain. This data, combined with consumer prices that have been steadily increasing, could signal broader economic challenges ahead. In conclusion, while it's important to remain cautious in predictive analysis, the culmination of the data on these economic indicators suggests a heightened risk of an impending recession.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.