This is the daily update for today, March 1, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy:
Moderate. Several high-frequency indicators point away from an immediate, high-probability recession: the official smoothed recession probability is very low, the Leading Index sits just above its warning level, industrial production and real PCE are holding positive growth, and financial stress measures remain subdued. The yield curve is flattened but still positive (10y−3mo only ~0.3–0.4), which reduces the near-term alarm relative to a full inversion. Collectively these signals suggest the economy is slowing but not yet collapsing.
That said, downside risks are meaningful and visible. Labor-market–related series (the civilian and U-6 unemployment measures per the provided thresholds), real personal income growth, retail sales and vehicle sales have weakened or fallen into warning ranges, and M2 growth is below the suggested safety threshold — all of which raise the odds of a downturn if the trends persist. In short: recession risk is elevated above baseline and worth close monitoring, but current data do not yet point to a high probability of an imminent recession. Key things to watch in the near term are unemployment and initial claims, retail and personal income readings, money growth, and whether the yield curve moves further toward inversion.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.