This is the daily update for today, November 29, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Deteriorating
Based on the analysis of various economic indicators, there are signs suggesting a heightened risk of a recession in the near future. The data shows that different aspects of the economy are either showing a slowdown or have stalled, which may indicate a potential downturn. Key leading indicators such as the Leading Index, Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, and Civilian Unemployment Rate are approaching or surpassing the thresholds that typically signal an increased risk of recession. Additionally, the 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims index is displaying an upward trend, which is often an early warning sign of economic contraction. Furthermore, other significant economic factors such as industrial production, new private housing unit authorizations, and the value of manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods are exhibiting negative growth rates or declining values, adding to the evidence that a recession may be imminent.
The increase in Consumer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers less food & energy may also point toward a potential recession, as inflation could be a factor that might contribute to economic slowdown. Moreover, the Total Assets of All Federal Reserve Banks are displaying a consistent decline over the examined period, further adding to the idea of an impending recession. However, it is crucial to note that various factors, such as global economic conditions and government policies, can influence the likelihood and timing of a recession. Therefore, while the data suggests an elevated risk of recession, it is essential to continue monitoring these indicators alongside other significant economic factors to better forecast the state of the economy and any potential downturn.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.