This is the daily update for today, January 7, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Mixed
Based on the most recent data across a wide range of economic indicators, there are several interesting observations to note regarding the probability of a recession in the near future. The Leading Index for United States has been hovering around 99.0, which is considered a warning level, indicating a potential future recession. At the same time, the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities show relatively low volatility at 0.9, suggesting a lower risk of an impending recession. However, it is important to point out that this index has been gradually increasing over time, which could indicate a potential shift in the economic cycle.
Additionally, the Total Nonfarm Employment has been fluctuating, reflecting periods of growth and decline, while the 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims has shown moderate to high volatility, indicating some instability in the labor market. Furthermore, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers has been consistently above 2.5%, which is nearing the warning level for potential inflationary pressures. This, combined with variations in other indicators such as the St. Louis Financial Stress Index and the Chicago National Financial Conditions Index, demonstrates the complexity of the current economic landscape, making it important to closely monitor the trends and prepare for potential risks.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.