This is the daily update for today, February 20, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Uncertain
Based on the analysis of various economic indicators, there is a moderately elevated risk of a recession. Several key metrics that are typically strong leading indicators for economic downturns have shown concerning trends. The data on the Leading Index for the United States has been hovering close to the 99.0 threshold, indicating potential warning signs for a recession. Additionally, the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, which typically reflect the probability of a recession in the near future, have shown a gradual increase, with values consistently above 0.5 in the most recent months. Both the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and the Real Personal Income (excluding current transfer receipts) have been displaying negative trends, suggesting potential economic instability. Furthermore, there has been a significant increase in the U-6 Unemployment Rate, indicating deterioration in the labor market.
Several other concerning metrics have been observed, such as a decline in the Total Nonfarm Employment figures and the Industrial Production Index. Additionally, the financial stress index measurements— including the Kansas City Financial Stress Index, the Chicago National Financial Conditions Index, and the St. Louis Financial Stress Index— have shown consistent concerning trends. Together, these metrics signal a potential economic slowdown and heightened risk of recession. However, it's crucial to consider other contributing factors such as trade, monetary policy, and global economic conditions before making a definitive prediction. Nonetheless, monitoring these indicators is essential for gaining a comprehensive understanding of the current economic landscape.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.