This is the daily update for today, September 15, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Risk
Based on the extensive collection of economic data, there are signs that suggest a potential risk of a recession. Several key indicators provide valuable insights into the health of the economy. The Leading Index for the United States, Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, and Chicago Fed National Activity Index have been steadily increasing, with values hovering around or below the critical threshold that could indicate an impending recession. Additionally, the Real Personal Income, Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees, and Industrial Production Index have shown a negative trend, which further raises concerns about the possibility of an economic downturn. Furthermore, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers and Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (excluding food and energy) have exhibited increases that may trigger a warning sign for potential economic decline.
Moreover, other contributing factors such as the Total Vehicle Sales, Retail and Food Services Sales, and Real Retail and Food Services Sales have seen slowing growth rates year over year, adding to the potential signs of economic contraction. Additionally, aspects such as yield curves, money stock changes, and stress indices, particularly the Kansas City Financial Stress Index and the St. Louis Financial Stress Index, have also displayed worrying trends, which ultimately compounds the likelihood of recession. Considering these various economic indicators, it appears that the risk of a recession is currently elevated based on the available data.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.