This is the daily update for today, December 28, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Deteriorating
Based on the data observed from multiple economic indicators specific to the United States, there are some concerning trends that could signal an impending recession. The Leading Index suggests that economic activity is plateauing, while the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities have gradually increased over recent months, signaling an elevated risk of recession. Additionally, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which is indicative of national economic conditions, is showing a negative trend. The Civilian and U-6 Unemployment Rates, when viewed in conjunction, indicate a potential weakening of the labor market, a traditional sign of an oncoming recession. Moreover, the Total Nonfarm Employment has been fluctuating significantly, suggesting inconsistencies in job growth.
While the data indicates multiple warning signs, it is important to note that not all indicators suggest the same level of risk. Nevertheless, it is crucial for policymakers and market participants to closely monitor these metrics, as they play an essential role in shaping economic policy and investment decisions. In light of the data, it is important that proactive measures are considered to mitigate potential economic challenges and minimize the impact of a possible recession.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.