This is the daily update for today, November 30, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Mixed
Based on the data provided, there are several indicators suggesting the possibility of an impending recession in the United States. Looking first at the Leading Index for the United States, we see consistently below average values, with the most recent numbers hovering around the threshold which typically indicates a higher risk of recession. Furthermore, the Civilian Unemployment Rate and U-6 Unemployment Rate have both shown notable fluctuations in recent months, with values that are trending towards the levels considered to be high risk. Additionally, the Total Nonfarm Employment has seen a significant decline, and the Industrial Production Index has remained consistently below average, both of which are indicative of economic downturns.
However, there are factors demonstrating some resilience in the economy, such as the M2 Money Stock, which has seen steady growth over the comparable period, and the Real Person Consumption Expenditures which have remained relatively stable. Despite these indicators, it is important to be cautious and keep an eye on potential signs of an economic slowdown, particularly given the financial conditions index, which provides an overall negative sentiment, and the Consumer Price Index, showing a consistent upward trend, raising concerns about inflationary pressures. Overall, the combination of these indicators suggests a mixed outlook with potential signs of an increased risk of recession in the near future, calling for close monitoring and proactive measures.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.