This is the daily update for today, January 4, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Uncertain
Based on the various economic indicators available, there is currently a mixed picture regarding the probability of a recession in the near future. The leading economic index, which typically serves as a reliable measure, has remained relatively stable and above the key threshold values, indicating a lower risk of an impending recession. However, the data on unemployment rates, especially the U-6 unemployment rate, suggests a higher risk of recession, with recent values exceeding the warning threshold. Furthermore, the YoY percent change in the Total Nonfarm Employment data has recently shown significant fluctuations, potentially signaling an uncertain economic outlook.
Although some leading indicators, such as the yield curve, demonstrate stability, others including the Chicago National Financial Conditions Index and Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) have exhibited concerning patterns. The data on Real Retail and Food Services Sales, and total vehicle sales have also shown recent declines which could pose a risk to the economy. It's important to note that the situation is dynamic and may change with time. Continued monitoring and analysis of various economic indicators will be critical to understanding the evolving economic landscape and making informed decisions.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.