This is the daily update for today, June 10, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy:
The data present a mixed but slightly worrying picture. Leading indicators are not uniformly flashing red: the LEI is just under 100 but has ticked up to about 99.9, and the model-smoothed recession probability remains very low (<1%). Financial stress measures are muted and initial jobless claims are strongly negative year‑over‑year (implying a still-tight labor market), while headline labor flows (payroll gains and low claims) and many retail measures show resilience. Offsetting these positives, the yield curve is markedly flattened (10y–3mo around 0.7–0.8), real personal income (ex-transfers) has moved negative (≈ -1.0% YoY in recent months), industrial production is below the 2% warning threshold, and inflation has re-accelerated (headline CPI ~3.8% YoY in April). Several sectoral series (vehicle sales, housing permits, and some capital goods readings) are volatile, adding uncertainty.
Taken together, the near‑term probability of recession looks elevated relative to the benign backdrop earlier, but it is not yet high or imminent. The flattened yield curve and weakening real incomes/industrial activity raise the odds of a downturn over the next 6–12 months, even as labor-market signals and consumer spending provide countervailing support. In short: risk is meaningfully higher than a few quarters ago — a watchful, conditional “moderate” recession probability — with key indicators to monitor being the yield curve, real personal income, industrial production, unemployment measures, and trend behavior of the LEI.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.