This is the daily update for today, January 9, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Cautionary
Based on the analysis of various economic indicators, it appears that there is reason to be cautious about the potential for a recession. A number of key data points are showing signs of potential economic stress. For instance, the Leading Index for the United States has remained at the borderline level of 99.7, which is a potential warning sign for a recession. Additionally, the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities have been steadily increasing, reaching 0.9, indicating a higher risk of a recession. Furthermore, the Civilian Unemployment Rate and U-6 Unemployment Rate have experienced significant fluctuations, with some months showing an increase above 0.2. The data also revealed concerning trends in the Total Nonfarm Employment figures which have exhibited volatility in recent months. Moreover, the Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) has been consistently below 1.0, which could further suggest a potential economic downturn on the horizon.
Conversely, although there are some concerning signs, it is important to note that not all indicators are pointing toward an impending recession. For example, certain figures such as the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers and the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) have remained relatively stable. Additionally, some reports indicate positive growth trends. Therefore, while there are indications of economic vulnerabilities, it is essential to carefully monitor these metrics over the coming months to gain a clearer understanding of the potential direction of the economy.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.