This is the daily update for today, February 17, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Uncertain
Based on the various economic indicators and data collected from the US, there is a notable possibility of a recession on the horizon. Several key indicators often associated with economic downturns are showing concerning trends. The Leading Index for the United States, which is used to forecast changes in the business cycle, is showing stagnant growth. Additionally, the smoothed US recession probabilities have shown fluctuating risk levels, at times spiking to much higher levels, which is often indicative of economic uncertainty. The unemployment rate, both civilian and U-6, have also shown signs of instability, with substantial increases in certain months, suggesting potential labor market distress. The 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims also aligns with this trend, as it reflects an increase in unemployment claims.
Moreover, while certain indicators such as the Real Personal Income, Real Retail and Food Services Sales, and Retail Sales (Total ex food services) demonstrate positive growth, their recent trends suggest a possible slowdown in the economy. Similarly, the rate of consumer price index increase is also a noteworthy factor, as the recent surge could potentially impact consumer spending and overall economic activity. It is crucial to monitor these factors closely in the coming months to assess the trajectory of the US economy and its susceptibility to a potential recession.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.