This is the daily update for today, December 9, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Downturn
Based on the provided economic data, there are several key indicators that suggest a potential recession on the horizon. The data points to multiple concerning factors, including a worrisome increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items), and the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy), which increased significantly over the past year. Another concerning sign is the decreased value in the Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) and the Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr), indicating potential instability in the bond market. Furthermore, there have been negative trends in Retail Trade, Industrial Production, and Manufacturing, all of which are crucial indicators of economic health.
Moreover, the St. Louis Financial Stress Index has shown a persistent negative trend, along with the Chicago National Financial Conditions Index and the Kansas City Financial Stress Index. When combined with the decreased Total Vehicle Sales, and low Consumer Confidence, it suggests the potential for economic downturn. The data also indicates that there has been a significant decrease in the Total Nonfarm Employment, which can also predict a slowdown in economic activity. With all of these factors combined, there is a substantial cause for concern that a recession is looming on the horizon.
It’s important to note that while these factors can indicate a recession, the overall economic landscape should be analyzed holistically to accurately predict future economic activity and trends. It is important to take into account other factors such as fiscal and monetary policies, consumer spending, and global economic conditions to better predict the chances and potential impacts of a recession.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.