This is the daily update for today, February 13, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Uncertain
Based on the data provided, I have analyzed several key economic indicators that are commonly used to assess the probability of a recession in the US. Looking at the Leading Index, Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Civilian Unemployment Rate, U-6 Unemployment Rate, and other essential factors, it is paramount to consider the overall economic health and potential risks of recession.
The data indicates a mixed picture. Some indicators, such as the Civilian Unemployment Rate and U-6 Unemployment Rate, have shown increased volatility and potential warning signs, reaching levels that suggest a heightened risk of recession. At the same time, indicators such as the Industrial Production Index and the Real Retail and Food Services Sales present more positive results. This conflicting data underscores the complexity of the economic landscape and makes it challenging to provide a definitive conclusion about the probability of a recession.
It is important to continue monitoring these indicators closely, and to consider that the occurrence of a recession depends on a variety of factors and how they interact. While some data points to a potential elevated risk of recession, it is crucial to remain cautious, as these signs do not definitively determine the economic outlook. Therefore, it's essential to maintain vigilance and continually reassess as new data becomes available.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.