This is the daily update for today, December 8, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Stable
Based on the data provided, there are a few key indicators to consider when evaluating the probability of a recession in the US economy. Several financial indicators such as the Leading Index for the United States, the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, and the Kansas City Financial Stress Index show no immediate risk of a recession. Additionally, while the Civilian Unemployment Rate and the U-6 Unemployment Rate have been fluctuating, they have not surpassed the critical warning thresholds for a recession. The All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets and the St. Louis Financial Stress Index also do not suggest an imminent recession. These factors, in combination with positive changes in the 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims and the Chicago National Financial Conditions Index, imply a relatively stable economic environment.
However, it is crucial to note that the recent data on the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, specifically the "All items less food & energy" category, has been steadily increasing year-over-year. This can be concerning as it may indicate rising inflationary pressures, which in turn could impact consumer spending and overall economic stability. In addition, the recent trend in the Total Vehicle Sales data indicates a potential sales slowdown. Taking these factors into account, it is important to closely monitor inflation, consumer spending, and vehicle sales, as they can be early indicators of economic changes and possible recession risks.
In summary, while most economic indicators do not currently suggest an imminent recession, the upward trend in core inflation and stagnation in vehicle sales suggest caution as potential early warning signs. Further monitoring and analysis of these key data points will be essential to accurately gauge the future direction of the US economy.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.