This is the daily update for today, February 6, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Mixed
Based on the data, there seems to be some concerning signs that suggest a potential risk of a recession. Several economic indicators are showing concerning trends, such as the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) and Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) which are above the 2% mark. Additionally, there has been a noticeable decrease in the Kansas City and St. Louis Financial Stress Indices, where the values are consistently on the negative side, indicating financial stress. Furthermore, the Chicago National Financial Conditions Index has remained on a negative trajectory.
Nevertheless, there are some positive signs amongst the data that potentially could mitigate the risk of a recession. The Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) and Real Person Consumption Expenditures have been steady and relatively up, along with other indicators such as Retail Sales and Industrial Production Index, which indicate modest growth. However, the negative trends in key indicators may suggest that caution should be exercised when forecasting future economic trends. It is important to remain attentive to how these indicators develop over the coming months as such trends can provide critical insight into the future state of the economy and potential recessions.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.