This is the daily update for today, January 26, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Risky
Based on the data provided, there are several indicators that suggest a potential risk of recession in the near future. When we look at economic indicators such as the Leading Index, Smoothed Recession Probabilities, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, we see consistent trends towards warning levels. These indices have shown little to no improvement over the past few months, approaching or crossing the critical thresholds for indicating an impending recession. Additionally, labor market indicators like the Unemployment Rate and U-6 Unemployment Rate have been fluctuating, showing some signs of strain.
Furthermore, within the consumer sector, metrics like the Real Retail and Food Services Sales, Retail Trade, and New Vehicle Sales have shown inconsistent growth, or in some cases, decline in recent months. Similarly, the financial health indicators like the 10-Year US Treasury yield and the Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) indicate potential instability in the financial markets which is often a precursor to an economic downturn. Considering the overall information presented, it is important to monitor these metrics closely in the coming months as the risk of a recession appears to be increasing.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.