This is the daily update for today, December 24, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Downturn
Based on the analysis of the economic indicators, it is important to assess the probability of a recession in the near future. The most accurate way to do it is by looking at a variety of leading indicators in order to provide a comprehensive view.
A combination of Inverted yield curves, declining index values, and higher than expected CPI are often deemed as an indication for potential economic slowdown. The data shows consistent trends in various key factors that could pose a risk for an upcoming recession. For instance, the Civilian Unemployment Rate and U-6 Unemployment Rate have shown significant fluctuations and are trending in concerning territories. Furthermore, a few other indicators such as the Real Retail and Food Services Sales, Retail Sales: Total, and New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits have remained consistently low, raising concerns about reduced consumer spending and decreased construction activities.
On top of this, the latest data on the Chicago National Financial Conditions Index, St. Louis Financial Stress Index, Kansas City Financial Stress Index, and The All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets demonstrate a prolonged period of poor financial conditions which could exacerbate the risk of a recession. As a result, the combination of the leading indicators suggests that there is a notable risk of an upcoming recession. It is imperative for policymakers and businesses to closely monitor these trends and be prepared for a potential economic downturn.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.