This is the daily update for today, July 12, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Recession
Based on the data provided, there are several economic indicators that suggest a heightened probability of a recession. The Leading Index for the United States has been consistently at 99.0 or below, which is considered a warning sign for a recession. Additionally, the Civilian and U-6 Unemployment rates have been persistently high recently, and the Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees and Average Hourly Earnings have shown a significant decline. Moreover, while the Real Personal Income has been relatively stable, the Industrial Production Index has been fluctuating around the threshold level, indicating increased economic instability.
Moreover, the Financial Stress Indices from various sources such as the Kansas City, Chicago, and St. Louis Federal Reserve Banks suggest that the economy is under stress. Furthermore, despite the positive growth in the Real Retail and Food Services Sales and New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits, the decrease in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) is a potential concern. These combined factors indicating economic instability across various sectors of the economy could potentially mean a recession is on the horizon. However, a definitive prediction would require a more comprehensive analysis of historical trends and additional economic indicators for a complete assessment of the current economic condition.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.