This is the daily update for today, January 14, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Mixed
Based on the analysis of multiple economic indicators, there is a mixed outlook on the probability of a recession in the US. It's necessary to consider a holistic perspective, taking into account various factors.
The economic indicators show some concerning signs. For instance, the Leading Index for the United States has been wavering around the critical level of 99.0, indicating a potential warning for a recession. Similarly, the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities have been volatile, with readings hovering near the threshold levels suggesting a risk of recession. Additionally, the Civilian Unemployment Rate, the U-6 Unemployment Rate, and the Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees have shown fluctuations that could indicate potential economic downturns.
On the positive side, several indicators reveal a more stable economic environment. The Real Personal Income, Real Retail and Food Services Sales, and Retail Sales (ex food services) demonstrate consistent growth and resilience. However, the recent inflationary pressures as reflected in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers and the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy), warrant close attention, as they might lead to a challenging economic environment. Overall, considering the robustness of US economy, the data doesn't currently signal an imminent recession, albeit certain cautionary signs are evident. It's necessary to closely monitor these indicators in the near term to identify any changing patterns and provide more definitive insights.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.