This is the daily update for today, November 26, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Weakness
While there are several traditional indicators for predicting a recession, such as the yield curve, employment data, and industrial production, it's critical to analyze a comprehensive set of economic indicators for a more robust understanding. Based on the analysis of a variety of economic indicators, including measures like the Leading Index, the U-6 Unemployment Rate, and the New Private Housing Unit Authorized, the data indicates potential warning signs for a looming recession. Specifically, the Leading Index for the United States has hovered around 99.0, closely approaching the critical threshold, and the U-6 Unemployment Rate has risen to 3.9% on year-over-year data. Moreover, the Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods shows a declining trend, with consistent negative percent change values in recent months.
Taking a broader look at the indicators, it is evident that some warning signs are emerging, including concerning shifts in financial conditions alongside inflation concerns. The Consumer Price Index data also shows increases of 3.0% and 3.1% in Year-on-Year basis for All items and All items less food & energy respectively. All these findings suggest that the economy might be showing signs of weakness, potentially leading to a higher risk of a recession in the foreseeable future. However, it's important to note that while these indicators provide valuable insights, the data should be continuously monitored and evaluated within the broader economic context.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.