This is the daily update for today, November 14, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Uncertain
Based on the economic indicators provided, it appears that there is a moderate to high risk of a recession in the near future. Several key economic indicators such as the economic activity index, unemployment rates, industrial production, and financial stress indices, all suggest a potential downturn. For instance, the Leading Index for the United States has been stagnating around the 99.0-99.9 range, while the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities have been showing a consistent increase over the past few months. Additionally, the Civilian Unemployment Rate and U-6 Unemployment Rate have both shown erratic increases, potentially signaling a weakness in the job market, while indicators such as the Total Nonfarm Employment and the Real Retail and Food Services Sales both depict significant dips in growth. Crucially, the Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) has fallen below the critical 1.0 level, which is commonly associated with recession warnings.
However, there are some signs of resilience in the economy. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers has been relatively stable, demonstrating slow but consistent price pressures, and the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (excluding food and energy) hasn't shown drastic fluctuations, indicating moderate inflation levels. Moreover, the M2 Money Stock, a measure of the total money supply in the economy, has shown gradual and steady growth which can be interpreted as a positive sign.
In conclusion, while there are some mitigating factors and signs of stability, the overall data suggests that there is a considerable risk of recession in the United States. The current economic climate appears uncertain, and close monitoring of these indicators will be crucial in providing a clearer outlook on the potential financial downfall.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.