This is the daily update for today, November 22, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Recessionary
Based on the analysis of various economic indicators, there is a worrisome pattern suggesting an increased probability of a recession in the US. Data from multiple sources, including leading economic indices, unemployment rates, real income, housing permits, retail sales, and financial stress indices, have shown concerning trends. For instance, the Civilian Unemployment Rate and U-6 Unemployment Rate have exhibited inconsistent movement, teetering on the edges of recessionary warning levels, indicative of potential labor market weaknesses. Moreover, the Industrial Production Index, Total Vehicle Sales, and Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods have fluctuated at levels which historically signified a heightened risk of a recession. Additionally, the St. Louis Financial Stress Index, Kansas City Financial Stress Index, and the Consumer Price Index have displayed patterns of concern. The recent increase in the Consumer Price Index, particularly for items less food and energy, may signal potential economic slowdown. These factors combined could foreshadow a challenging economic landscape in the near future.
On the other hand, some indicators, like the Yield Curve and M2 Money Stock, still seem to be within relatively healthy ranges. Thus, while there is evidence pointing to a potential economic downturn, all the indicators do not uniformly suggest an imminent recession. It is essential to monitor these variables continuously as they can provide a clearer picture of the economy's trajectory, helping in decisions and preparations for any potential downturn.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.