This is the daily update for today, January 12, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Uncertain
Based on the economic data provided, there is a moderate risk of an impending recession in the US. Several key indicators, including the Leading Index for the United States, the Smoothed US Recession Probabilities, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, present a concerning trend with values on the boundary of signaling a recession. Additionally, the data on unemployment rates, especially the U-6 Unemployment Rate, is showing an upward trend, indicating a worsening labor market which could potentially contribute to a recession.
On the other hand, some positive signs are seen in the recent data regarding the Total Vehicle Sales and the Retail Trade, which show an overall upward trend. These could be indicative of healthy consumer spending, an important factor in economic stability.
A key factor to watch will be the Federal Reserve's response to the current economic indicators. Given the high levels of inflation, the Federal Reserve could implement policies such as interest rate hikes to combat inflation, but this may also impact spending and investment. Overall, a wait-and-see approach is needed as the data reflects a mix of positive and negative signals, making it uncertain whether a recession is imminent or not.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.