This is the daily update for today, February 21, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Downturn
Based on the analysis of various economic indicators, there appears to be a growing risk of an impending recession in the United States. Numerous key economic metrics have demonstrated concerning trends, signaling a potential economic downturn. The Leading Index for the United States, alongside the Civilian Unemployment Rate and U-6 Unemployment Rate, have shown negative deviations that are indicative of economic slowdowns. Furthermore, there has been a notable decline in Total Nonfarm Employment and the 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims has shown a consistent negative trajectory, pointing towards potential issues in the labor market.
The Yield Curve, a significant financial indicator, has also indicated concerning trends - particularly the Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) has shown indications of an inversion, which historically has been a reliable predictor of impending recessions. Moreover, while the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) and the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) show higher rates of inflation which can lead to economic downturns. While individual data points can be variable and may not provide a comprehensive picture, the combination of negative trends across these important economic indicators suggest a growing risk of recession in the United States.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.