This is the daily update for today, January 9, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Concerning
Based on the economic indicators provided, the probability of a recession in the near future is a key concern. Several indicators are suggesting a potential downturn, including the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which is crossing the warning threshold of 0.0, indicating increasing risk. Moreover, the Unemployment Rate and U-6 Unemployment Rate show concerning spikes, with the latter exceeding the 2.0 threshold, indicating higher risk. Additionally, the Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) is hovering around 0.5, approaching the 1.0 mark, suggesting potential economic instability.
Conversely, some indicators are showing positive signs, such as the M2 Money Stock and Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy), which remain within relatively stable ranges, signaling restrained monetary growth and controlled inflation. While these positive signs are notable, the data overall warrants careful attention as several critical indicators point to a heightened risk of recession. It would be prudent for policymakers and businesses to closely monitor these economic markers and prepare potential responses to mitigate the impact of a potential recession.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.