This is the daily update for today, January 22, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Mixed
Based on the analysis of various economic indicators, it is evident that there are mixed signals concerning the probability of an impending recession in the United States. The Leading Index for the United States has been relatively stable, indicating a marginal upward trend, and avoiding the warning threshold for a recession. Interestingly, the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities data also shows relatively small percentages, suggesting a low risk of a recession.
Furthermore, the data from the Civilian Unemployment Rate and U-6 Unemployment Rate indicates a fluctuating trend, with some volatility in the figures. This is mirrored in the data for the Total Nonfarm Employment and the 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims, which showcases erratic changes over several months. Additionally, the Kansas City Financial Stress Index, Chicago National Financial Conditions Index, and St. Louis Financial Stress Index reveal consistent negative values, hinting at a steady financial environment.
On the other hand, not all economic indicators provide a clear picture. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, which measures changes in prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services, has been experiencing a gradual increase, raising concerns about potential inflationary pressures. In contrast, the data for the Real Retail and Food Services Sales indicate a deceleration in growth. The inconclusiveness of these indicators suggests that while there are some positive trends, constraining economic factors could be at play.
Given the mixed signals, a careful approach to forecasting the likelihood of a recession is necessary. Close monitoring of these indicators, in conjunction with additional economic data, will be essential to form a more robust prediction.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.