This is the daily update for today, February 14, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Deteriorating
Based on the analysis of a variety of economic indicators, there is a risk of an imminent recession. The Leading Index for the United States, which acts as a bellwether for future economic activity, shows stagnation and minor fluctuations around the 99.5 threshold. Additionally, the Smoothed US Recession Probabilities, which provides insights on the likelihood of a recession, depicts a consecutive increase over the past few months, reaching 0.9, which constitutes a considerable rise. On the job market front, the U-6 Unemployment Rate has been showing a notable increase, reaching as high as 13.0 %. We also observe a slight fluctuation in the Initial Claims data, reflecting a consistent but gradual increase over the recent weeks. Furthermore, several significant economic factors are exhibiting worrying trajectories; such as the decrease in new housing units authorized, a slowdown in vehicle sales, and a lower than expected increase in manufactured durable goods orders.
These concerning signs coincide with other economic markers, such as the relatively poor performance in retail and food services sales and a decline in manufacturing hours. Moreover, the U.S. Treasury Yield Curve indicates a potential inversion, with the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds decreasing substantially in comparison to the 3-month period and the yield on 10-year and 2-year bonds also demonstrating a downward trend. On the inflation front, the Consumer Price Index has shown a steady increase, reaching 3.0% in some months. Finally, indicators of financial stress from various indexes reinforce the overall negative outlook. When considering all these factors together, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the US economy is facing a higher risk of recession.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.