This is the daily update for today, January 10, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Concerning
A comprehensive analysis of various economic indicators suggests a concerning picture for the probability of a recession. The indicators considered were the Leading Index, M2 Money Stock, Total Vehicle Sales, 10-Year US Treasury, and others. The data points to potential warning signs for a recession. For instance, the Leading Index has shown stagnant or slow growth over the past few months, which is often an early warning sign of an economic downturn. Additionally, the M2 Money Stock increased at a lower rate, indicating potential constraints on liquidity and economic activity. Another important factor is Total Vehicle Sales, which experienced negative growth in the most recent months, indicating potential weakening in consumer spending, a key component of economic health.
On the financial side, the 10-Year US Treasury showed limited growth, to the point of plateauing, traditionally indicating investor concerns about the economy. These findings suggest that there is a significant risk of economic downturn in the near future. These warning signs are further supported by a continued increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, highlighting an upward trend in inflation, which could negatively impact consumer purchasing power. The combination of these factors raises serious concerns about the probability of a recession and calls for close monitoring of the economic landscape in the coming months.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.