This is the daily update for today, January 3, 2026.
One word that discribes the US economy: Cautious
Based on the provided data, it appears that there is a mixed but cautious outlook when it comes to the probability of an impending recession. Several indicators suggest that the economy may be experiencing some stress, but it is not yet at a point that would signal an immediate downturn. One potential area of concern is the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, which has been consistently high in the most recent year. High consumer prices may indicate potential challenges for household budgets and can affect overall consumer spending levels, which are crucial for sustained economic growth. Another significant worry comes from the St. Louis Financial Stress Index, which shows negative values that may suggest an elevated level of financial stress. However, many other indicators such as the Yield Curve and M2 Money Stock are displaying patterns that do not currently show significant signs of a looming recession. It's important to note that the data should be closely monitored as the risk of recession can evolve rapidly based on various economic factors and external events.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.