This is the daily update for today, December 24, 2025.
One word that discribes the US economy: Recession
Based on an analysis of various economic indicators, it can be observed that there are several warning signs that suggest an increased probability of a recession. The leading index for the United States has been fluctuating around the 99.0 mark, which is relatively close to the recession threshold of 97.0, signaling a potential economic slowdown. Additionally, the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities have risen above 0.4, indicating an elevated risk of an economic downturn in the near future. The All Federal Reserve Banks' total assets have demonstrated a concerning decline over the past weeks, reflecting potential stress in the financial sector.
An indication of a looming economic downturn can also be inferred from negative changes in unemployment rates. The civilian unemployment rate and U-6 unemployment rate have exhibited erratic behavior, with an increase in unemployment rates in significant months. Furthermore, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers has been consistently high, and though the Federal Reserve has indicated that the current inflationary environment is transitory, it raises concerns due to its impact on consumer purchasing power. In addition, examining other indicators such as the slowdown in retail sales and a decrease in total vehicle sales, it is evident that the economy may be heading towards a period of contraction. Given these warning signs across various economic sectors, it would be prudent for policymakers and businesses alike to prepare for a potential recession.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.