Recessionary signal   Warning signal   Expansionary signal   N/A*  

Leading Indicators

Leading Index for the United States 99.9 on 1-2024 99.7, 99.9
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 0.6 on 6-2026 0.9, 1.2, 0.6, 0.3, 0.3, 0.2, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.6
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.1 on 7-2026 -0.5, -0.3, -0.1, -0.1, 0.2, -0.1, 0.1, -0.1, 0.1, -0.1

Employment Indicators

Civilian Unemployment Rate -4.7 percent change yoy on 7-2026 7.3, 7.1, 7.3, 7.5, 4.8, 2.4, 2.4, 0.0, 2.4, -4.7
U-6 Unemployment Rate 0.0 percent change yoy on 7-2026 5.2, 13.0, 10.5, 8.0, -1.2, 1.3, 5.1, 3.8, 2.6, 0.0
Total Nonfarm Employment -23.0 change period over period on 7-2026 -140.0, 41.0, -17.0, 160.0, -156.0, 214.0, 148.0, 63.0, 20.0, -23.0
4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims -9.5 percent change yoy on 8/15/2026 -7.7, -7.3, -6.9, -6.5, -6.2, -7.3, -8.2, -10.0, -9.9, -9.5
Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts) 0.1 percent change yoy on 6-2026 1.3, 0.9, 0.6, 0.3, 0.2, 0.0, -0.6, -1.0, -0.4, 0.1
Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees 0.5 percent change yoy on 7-2026 0.3, 0.0, -0.2, 0.5, 0.2, 0.0, 0.7, 0.7, 0.7, 0.5
Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) 3.2 percent change yoy on 7-2026 4.0, 4.0, 3.8, 3.7, 3.7, 3.5, 3.7, 3.6, 3.4, 3.2

Production Indicators

Industrial Production Index 1.1 percent change yoy on 7-2026 1.8, 1.8, 1.2, 1.0, 0.8, 0.7, 1.4, 1.5, 1.3, 1.1
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries 8.1 percent change yoy on 6-2026 3.0, 3.1, 3.2, 5.2, 9.3, 7.2, 5.9, 10.6, 11.0, 8.1
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods -0.8 percent change yoy on 6-2026 12.4, 7.9, 32.2, 21.3, 15.3, 8.9, -15.4, 30.9, -26.1, -0.8

Consumer Indicators

Real Person Consumption Expenditures 2.5 percent change yoy on 6-2026 2.4, 2.5, 2.2, 1.6, 2.0, 2.4, 1.9, 1.9, 2.4, 2.5
Real Retail and Food Services Sales 1.7 percent change yoy on 7-2026 1.1, 0.5, -0.2, 0.9, 1.7, 0.9, 1.2, 2.9, 3.2, 1.7
Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) 5.0 percent change yoy on 7-2026 3.0, 2.9, 2.1, 3.2, 4.0, 4.5, 5.4, 7.6, 7.1, 5.0
Total Vehicle Sales -1.3 percent change yoy on 7-2026 -3.9, -5.3, -5.2, -6.0, -3.2, -9.2, -5.4, 4.4, 4.7, -1.3
Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores 4.7 percent change yoy on 7-2026 3.5, 3.1, 3.5, 5.0, 5.7, 6.0, 8.1, 6.8, 7.0, 4.7

Residential Construction Indicators

New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits 2.4 percent change yoy on 7-2026 -1.2, -6.5, 1.0, -4.8, 6.5, -8.6, -1.5, -0.4, -1.8, 2.4

Credit and Financial Indicators

10-Year US Treasury 4.7 on 8/24/2026 4.7, 4.7, 4.6, 4.7, 4.7, 4.7, 4.6, 4.7, 4.7, 4.7
Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) 0.8 on 8/25/2026 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 0.9, 0.8, 0.8
Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) 0.5 on 8/25/2026 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5
M2 Money Stock 5.4 percent change yoy on 7-2026 4.3, 3.8, 4.0, 4.1, 4.6, 4.4, 4.5, 5.4, 5.3, 5.4
All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets 1.9 percent change yoy on 8/19/2026 0.8, 1.1, 1.0, 1.1, 1.3, 1.3, 1.4, 1.6, 1.8, 1.9
Kansas City Financial Stress Index -0.8 on 7-2026 -0.5, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.6, -0.6, -0.7, -0.9, -0.8, -0.8
Chicago National Financial Conditions Index -0.6 on 8/14/2026 -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.6, -0.6
St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c) -0.8 on 8/14/2026 -0.8, -1.0, -0.6, -0.7, -0.9, -0.7, -0.8, -0.5, -0.8, -0.8

Inflation Indicators

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) 3.3 percent change yoy on 7-2026 3.0, 2.7, 2.7, 2.4, 2.4, 3.3, 3.8, 4.2, 3.5, 3.3
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) 2.5 percent change yoy on 7-2026 3.0, 2.6, 2.6, 2.5, 2.5, 2.6, 2.7, 2.8, 2.6, 2.5
PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy) 3.3 percent change yoy on 6-2026 2.8, 2.8, 2.8, 3.0, 3.1, 3.0, 3.3, 3.3, 3.4, 3.3
Median Consumer Price Index 3.1 on 7-2026 1.4, 1.4, 3.1, 2.3, 2.1, 2.3, 4.9, 3.7, 2.1, 3.1
5yr5yr Inflation Expectations 2.3 on 8/25/2026 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3


Note: Indicators are updated daily at 6:00 am Eastern time.
*Indicators rated as N/A may not themselves suggest changes in the business cycle, but should be monitored nonetheless.
Last Update on: 02/26/2026