Recessionary signal   Warning signal   Expansionary signal   N/A*  

Leading Indicators

Leading Index for the United States 98.6 on 4-2023 99.4, 99.3, 99.1, 99.0, 98.9, 98.9, 98.8, 98.8, 98.7, 98.6
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 0.4 on 4-2023 0.0, 0.1, 0.1, 0.6, 1.2, 1.5, 0.1, 0.3, 0.4, 0.4
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.1 on 4-2023 0.2, 0.2, 0.1, -0.1, -0.6, -0.5, 0.4, -0.4, -0.4, 0.1

Employment Indicators

Civilian Unemployment Rate -5.6 percent change yoy on 4-2023 -35.2, -28.8, -27.1, -17.8, -14.3, -10.3, -15.0, -5.3, -2.8, -5.6
U-6 Unemployment Rate -5.7 percent change yoy on 4-2023 -26.1, -20.5, -21.2, -18.3, -13.0, -11.0, -7.0, -5.6, -2.9, -5.7
Total Nonfarm Employment 253.0 change period over period on 4-2023 568.0, 352.0, 350.0, 324.0, 290.0, 239.0, 472.0, 248.0, 165.0, 253.0
4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims 8.1 percent change yoy on 5/27/2023 11.0, 10.8, 11.2, 10.7, 9.7, 10.8, 11.3, 8.2, 7.3, 8.1
Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts) 1.2 percent change yoy on 4-2023 0.5, 1.0, 0.9, 0.2, 0.0, 0.2, 0.7, 0.5, 1.1, 1.2
Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees -0.5 percent change yoy on 4-2023 -0.2, -0.2, -0.5, 0.2, -0.5, -0.7, 0.5, -1.0, -1.0, -0.5
Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) 5.0 percent change yoy on 4-2023 6.6, 6.2, 5.9, 5.7, 5.7, 5.4, 5.2, 5.3, 5.1, 5.0

Production Indicators

Industrial Production Index 0.2 percent change yoy on 4-2023 3.0, 3.1, 4.5, 3.1, 1.9, 0.6, 1.5, 0.8, 0.1, 0.2
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries 4.6 percent change yoy on 3-2023 17.7, 6.0, 12.7, 23.0, 15.7, 12.3, 12.2, 12.4, 8.3, 4.6
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods 4.0 percent change yoy on 4-2023 14.8, 1.3, 12.2, 14.4, -3.4, 11.4, -6.3, -5.4, 6.4, 4.0

Consumer Indicators

Real Person Consumption Expenditures 2.3 percent change yoy on 4-2023 2.2, 2.3, 2.1, 1.7, 1.4, 1.9, 2.6, 2.3, 2.0, 2.3
Real Retail and Food Services Sales -3.2 percent change yoy on 4-2023 1.8, 1.8, 1.1, 0.9, -0.9, -0.4, 1.0, -0.7, -2.4, -3.2
Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) 0.5 percent change yoy on 4-2023 10.5, 9.9, 8.9, 8.0, 5.3, 4.9, 5.4, 3.9, 1.1, 0.5
Total Vehicle Sales 11.6 percent change yoy on 4-2023 -8.4, 1.9, 10.9, 15.5, 9.7, 5.3, 5.8, 9.0, 9.4, 11.6
Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores -7.3 percent change yoy on 4-2023 -4.0, -1.1, 0.3, -6.5, -5.0, -4.6, 4.1, 1.2, -5.2, -7.3

Residential Construction Indicators

New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits -21.1 percent change yoy on 4-2023 2.5, -13.7, -2.9, -10.0, -21.0, -27.7, -28.7, -18.4, -23.4, -21.1

Credit and Financial Indicators

10-Year US Treasury 3.6 on 5/31/2023 3.6, 3.6, 3.7, 3.7, 3.7, 3.7, 3.8, 3.8, 3.7, 3.6
Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) -1.9 on 6/01/2023 -1.7, -1.6, -1.7, -1.6, -1.6, -1.6, -1.5, -1.9, -1.9, -1.9
Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) -0.7 on 6/01/2023 -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.7, -0.7, -0.8, -0.8, -0.7
M2 Money Stock -4.6 percent change yoy on 4-2023 5.0, 3.9, 2.7, 1.5, 0.4, -0.9, -1.6, -2.3, -4.0, -4.6
All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets -5.9 percent change yoy on 5/31/2023 -2.6, -3.4, -3.9, -4.0, -4.2, -4.9, -4.9, -5.5, -5.4, -5.9
Kansas City Financial Stress Index 0.3 on 4-2023 0.1, -0.1, 0.1, 0.5, -0.0, -0.1, -0.2, -0.3, 1.1, 0.3
Chicago National Financial Conditions Index -0.3 on 5/26/2023 -0.1, -0.1, -0.2, -0.2, -0.2, -0.2, -0.3, -0.3, -0.3, -0.3
St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c) -0.6 on 5/26/2023 0.3, -0.3, -0.0, -0.5, -0.7, -0.3, -0.3, -0.5, -0.5, -0.6

Inflation Indicators

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) 5.0 percent change yoy on 4-2023 8.4, 8.2, 8.2, 7.8, 7.1, 6.4, 6.3, 6.0, 5.0, 5.0
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) 5.5 percent change yoy on 4-2023 5.9, 6.3, 6.6, 6.3, 6.0, 5.7, 5.5, 5.5, 5.6, 5.5
PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy) 4.7 percent change yoy on 4-2023 4.7, 4.9, 5.2, 5.1, 4.8, 4.6, 4.7, 4.7, 4.6, 4.7
Median Consumer Price Index 4.9 on 4-2023 6.4, 8.5, 8.4, 6.5, 5.8, 7.0, 8.1, 7.9, 4.9, 4.9
5yr5yr Inflation Expectations 2.2 on 6/01/2023 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.4, 2.4, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.2


Note: Indicators are updated daily at 6:00 am Eastern time.
*Indicators rated as N/A may not themselves suggest changes in the business cycle, but should be monitored nonetheless.
Last Update on: 06/01/2023