Indicators | Last Recession

Recessionary signal Warning signal Expansionary signal N/A*

Leading Indicators

Leading Index for the United States 99.9 on 1-2024 99.0, 99.1, 99.2, 99.3, 99.4, 99.5, 99.5, 99.6, 99.7, 99.9

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 1.5 on 10-2024 0.8, 0.1, 0.3, 0.4, 0.2, 0.2, 0.3, 0.2, 0.5, 1.5

Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.4 on 10-2024 -0.8, 0.4, -0.2, -0.4, 0.2, -0.1, -0.3, -0.0, -0.3, -0.4

Employment Indicators

Civilian Unemployment Rate 13.5 percent change yoy on 11-2024 8.3, 8.6, 14.7, 8.1, 13.9, 22.9, 10.5, 7.9, 7.9, 13.5

U-6 Unemployment Rate 11.4 percent change yoy on 11-2024 7.4, 9.0, 12.1, 8.8, 7.2, 16.4, 11.3, 10.0, 6.9, 11.4

Total Nonfarm Employment 227.0 change period over period on 11-2024 236.0, 310.0, 108.0, 216.0, 118.0, 144.0, 78.0, 255.0, 36.0, 227.0

4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims 0.3 percent change yoy on 11/30/2024 3.6, 8.9, 12.4, 13.4, 12.6, 7.3, 1.5, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3

Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts) 2.3 percent change yoy on 10-2024 3.6, 3.5, 3.3, 2.9, 2.9, 2.8, 2.6, 2.5, 2.3, 2.3

Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees 0.3 percent change yoy on 11-2024 -0.7, -0.5, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2, -0.2, 0.0, -0.2, -0.2, 0.3

Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) 3.9 percent change yoy on 11-2024 4.5, 4.2, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 3.9, 4.0, 4.0, 4.1, 3.9

Production Indicators

Industrial Production Index -0.3 percent change yoy on 10-2024 -1.2, -0.1, -0.3, -0.8, -0.0, 0.9, -0.5, -0.0, -0.7, -0.3

Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries 1.7 percent change yoy on 9-2024 -3.0, -3.6, -0.2, 3.3, 6.6, 4.1, 3.1, -2.4, -1.6, 1.7

Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods 0.0 percent change yoy on 10-2024 -3.5, 6.8, 1.0, -4.5, -8.6, -34.9, 1.6, -0.8, -13.1, 0.0

Consumer Indicators

Real Person Consumption Expenditures 3.0 percent change yoy on 10-2024 1.9, 2.1, 2.7, 2.4, 2.8, 2.9, 2.8, 2.9, 3.1, 3.0

Real Retail and Food Services Sales 0.3 percent change yoy on 10-2024 -2.8, -1.1, 0.2, -0.6, -0.7, -1.0, 0.0, -0.6, -0.4, 0.3

Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) 2.6 percent change yoy on 10-2024 -0.3, 1.4, 3.3, 2.3, 2.2, 1.7, 2.8, 1.7, 1.7, 2.6

Total Vehicle Sales 6.6 percent change yoy on 11-2024 4.9, 3.3, 0.8, 2.7, -5.8, 0.4, -1.0, 0.3, 5.8, 6.6

Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores -2.3 percent change yoy on 10-2024 -5.4, 1.2, -2.3, 2.5, 2.9, 0.6, 3.4, -0.1, -4.9, -2.3

Residential Construction Indicators

New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits -7.5 percent change yoy on 10-2024 4.5, -3.5, -0.5, -2.0, -8.7, -2.6, -6.3, -6.8, -5.9, -7.5

Nonperforming Total Loans (past due 90+ days plus nonaccrual) to Total Loans 1.1 on 7/01/2020 1.1

Credit and Financial Indicators

10-Year US Treasury 4.2 on 12/05/2024 4.4, 4.4, 4.3, 4.3, 4.2, 4.2, 4.2, 4.2, 4.2, 4.2

Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) -0.3 on 12/06/2024 -0.2, -0.4, -0.3, -0.4, -0.4, -0.3, -0.3, -0.3, -0.3, -0.3

Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) 0.0 on 12/06/2024 0.0, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1, 0.1, 0.0, 0.0

M2 Money Stock 3.1 percent change yoy on 10-2024 -2.2, -1.7, -0.0, 0.8, 0.7, 1.1, 1.3, 2.0, 2.6, 3.1

All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets -10.9 percent change yoy on 12/04/2024 -11.4, -11.4, -11.3, -11.1, -10.8, -11.0, -10.8, -11.4, -11.4, -10.9

Kansas City Financial Stress Index -0.4 on 10-2024 -0.4, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.7, -0.7, -0.3, -0.4, -0.5, -0.4

Chicago National Financial Conditions Index -0.6 on 11/29/2024 -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6

St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c) -0.6 on 11/29/2024 -0.3, -0.6, -0.6, -0.5, -0.4, -0.3, -0.6, -0.8, -0.6, -0.6

Inflation Indicators

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) 2.6 percent change yoy on 10-2024 3.1, 3.2, 3.5, 3.4, 3.3, 3.0, 2.9, 2.6, 2.4, 2.6

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) 3.3 percent change yoy on 10-2024 3.9, 3.8, 3.8, 3.6, 3.4, 3.3, 3.2, 3.3, 3.3, 3.3

PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy) 2.8 percent change yoy on 10-2024 3.1, 2.9, 3.0, 2.9, 2.7, 2.6, 2.7, 2.7, 2.7, 2.8

Median Consumer Price Index 3.6 on 10-2024 6.5, 4.6, 4.3, 4.3, 3.0, 2.4, 3.8, 3.2, 4.1, 3.6

5yr5yr Inflation Expectations 2.2 on 12/06/2024 2.2, 2.2, 2.2, 2.2, 2.2, 2.2, 2.2, 2.2, 2.2, 2.2

Note: Indicators are updated daily at 6:00 am Eastern time.
*Indicators rated as N/A may not themselves suggest changes in the business cycle, but should be monitored nonetheless.