Recessionary signal   Warning signal   Expansionary signal   N/A*  

Leading Indicators

Leading Index for the United States 99.9 on 1-2024 99.2, 99.3, 99.4, 99.5, 99.5, 99.6, 99.7, 99.9
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 0.8 on 12-2025 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 0.5, 0.5, 0.9, 0.8, 0.9, 0.6, 0.8
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.2 on 1-2026 -0.4, -0.3, -0.1, 0.0, -0.3, -0.3, -0.5, -0.2, -0.2, 0.2

Employment Indicators

Civilian Unemployment Rate 7.5 percent change yoy on 1-2026 7.7, 7.7, 10.3, 0.0, 2.4, 2.4, 7.3, 7.1, 7.3, 7.5
U-6 Unemployment Rate 6.7 percent change yoy on 1-2026 8.2, 5.4, 5.4, 4.1, 1.3, 3.8, 5.2, 13.0, 10.5, 6.7
Total Nonfarm Employment 130.0 change period over period on 1-2026 108.0, 13.0, -20.0, 64.0, -70.0, 76.0, -140.0, 41.0, 48.0, 130.0
4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims -2.5 percent change yoy on 2/21/2026 -4.1, -1.5, -1.1, -3.4, -4.3, -3.4, -2.4, 1.3, 0.8, -2.5
Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts) 0.2 percent change yoy on 12-2025 2.1, 2.0, 1.1, 0.8, 1.0, 0.9, 0.9, 0.6, 0.5, 0.2
Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees 0.2 percent change yoy on 1-2026 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8, -0.2, -0.2, 0.3, 0.0, -0.2, 0.2
Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) 3.8 percent change yoy on 1-2026 4.2, 4.1, 4.1, 4.1, 4.0, 3.8, 4.0, 4.0, 3.8, 3.8

Production Indicators

Industrial Production Index 2.3 percent change yoy on 1-2026 0.9, 0.1, 0.6, 1.9, 1.2, 1.9, 1.8, 2.1, 1.3, 2.3
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries 4.2 percent change yoy on 12-2025 1.1, -4.5, -4.3, -0.3, 3.1, 3.2, 3.0, 3.1, 3.2, 4.2
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods 20.5 percent change yoy on 12-2025 28.0, 7.8, 64.5, 32.9, 3.5, 13.5, 12.4, 7.9, 32.2, 20.5

Consumer Indicators

Real Person Consumption Expenditures 1.7 percent change yoy on 12-2025 3.2, 3.1, 2.5, 2.5, 2.6, 2.8, 2.4, 2.5, 2.4, 1.7
Real Retail and Food Services Sales -0.2 percent change yoy on 12-2025 1.0, 2.6, 2.6, 1.0, 1.7, 1.4, 2.0, 1.1, 0.6, -0.2
Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) 2.1 percent change yoy on 12-2025 4.9, 4.7, 2.9, 4.0, 3.8, 4.7, 3.9, 3.0, 3.0, 2.1
Total Vehicle Sales -4.7 percent change yoy on 1-2026 6.8, -1.9, 3.1, 4.0, 5.8, 3.9, -3.9, -5.3, -5.2, -4.7
Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores 2.1 percent change yoy on 12-2025 2.5, -0.3, -1.8, 0.1, 1.1, 3.2, 6.1, 3.5, 3.2, 2.1

Residential Construction Indicators

New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits -2.2 percent change yoy on 12-2025 0.3, -2.5, -0.9, -4.7, -5.2, -9.9, -1.3, -1.2, -8.0, -2.2

Credit and Financial Indicators

10-Year US Treasury 4.0 on 2/26/2026 4.1, 4.0, 4.0, 4.1, 4.1, 4.1, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0
Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) 0.3 on 2/27/2026 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.3, 0.4, 0.4, 0.3, 0.3
Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) 0.6 on 2/27/2026 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6
M2 Money Stock 4.3 percent change yoy on 1-2026 3.9, 3.9, 4.1, 4.4, 4.2, 4.2, 4.3, 3.9, 4.2, 4.3
All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets -2.3 percent change yoy on 2/25/2026 -4.4, -3.1, -4.1, -3.7, -3.6, -3.4, -3.0, -2.8, -2.5, -2.3
Kansas City Financial Stress Index -0.7 on 1-2026 0.1, -0.5, -0.6, -0.7, -0.8, -0.8, -0.6, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7
Chicago National Financial Conditions Index -0.6 on 2/20/2026 -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6
St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c) -0.6 on 2/20/2026 -0.3, -0.6, -0.6, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.6, -0.6

Inflation Indicators

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) 2.4 percent change yoy on 1-2026 2.4, 2.3, 2.4, 2.7, 2.7, 2.9, 3.0, 2.7, 2.7, 2.4
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) 2.5 percent change yoy on 1-2026 2.8, 2.8, 2.8, 2.9, 3.1, 3.1, 3.0, 2.6, 2.6, 2.5
PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy) 3.0 percent change yoy on 12-2025 2.7, 2.6, 2.8, 2.8, 2.9, 2.9, 2.8, 2.8, 2.8, 3.0
Median Consumer Price Index 2.3 on 1-2026 3.9, 3.1, 3.8, 3.4, 3.5, 2.4, 1.4, 1.4, 3.1, 2.3
5yr5yr Inflation Expectations 2.1 on 2/27/2026 2.1, 2.1, 2.2, 2.2, 2.1, 2.1, 2.1, 2.1, 2.1, 2.1


Note: Indicators are updated daily at 6:00 am Eastern time.
*Indicators rated as N/A may not themselves suggest changes in the business cycle, but should be monitored nonetheless.
Last Update on: 02/26/2026