Indicators | Last Recession

Recessionary signal Warning signal Expansionary signal N/A*

Leading Indicators

Leading Index for the United States 99.9 on 1-2024 99.3, 99.4, 99.5, 99.5, 99.6, 99.7, 99.9

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 0.5 on 2-2026 0.7, 0.4, 0.3, 0.7, 0.7, 0.8, 0.3, 0.2, 0.2, 0.5

Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.1 on 2-2026 -0.3, -0.1, 0.0, -0.4, -0.3, -0.5, -0.1, -0.1, 0.2, -0.1

Employment Indicators

Civilian Unemployment Rate 2.4 percent change yoy on 3-2026 10.3, 0.0, 2.4, 2.4, 7.3, 7.1, 7.3, 7.5, 4.8, 2.4

U-6 Unemployment Rate -1.2 percent change yoy on 2-2026 5.4, 5.4, 4.1, 1.3, 3.8, 5.2, 13.0, 10.5, 8.0, -1.2

Total Nonfarm Employment -92.0 change period over period on 2-2026 13.0, -20.0, 64.0, -70.0, 76.0, -140.0, 41.0, -17.0, 126.0, -92.0

4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims -5.9 percent change yoy on 3/21/2026 -4.5, -3.6, -2.5, 1.1, 0.9, -2.3, -4.5, -7.0, -7.6, -5.9

Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts) 0.6 percent change yoy on 1-2026 2.0, 1.1, 0.8, 1.2, 1.2, 1.3, 1.1, 0.9, 0.6, 0.6

Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees 0.0 percent change yoy on 2-2026 0.0, 0.0, 0.8, -0.2, -0.2, 0.3, 0.0, -0.2, 0.5, 0.0

Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) 3.7 percent change yoy on 2-2026 4.1, 4.1, 4.1, 4.0, 3.8, 4.0, 4.0, 3.8, 3.7, 3.7

Production Indicators

Industrial Production Index 1.4 percent change yoy on 2-2026 0.1, 0.6, 1.9, 1.2, 1.9, 1.7, 2.1, 1.3, 2.3, 1.4

Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries 8.1 percent change yoy on 1-2026 -4.5, -4.3, -0.3, 3.1, 3.2, 3.0, 3.1, 3.2, 5.2, 8.1

Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods 17.5 percent change yoy on 1-2026 7.8, 64.5, 32.9, 3.5, 13.5, 12.4, 7.9, 32.2, 21.3, 17.5

Consumer Indicators

Real Person Consumption Expenditures 2.4 percent change yoy on 1-2026 3.1, 2.5, 2.5, 2.6, 2.8, 2.4, 2.5, 2.3, 1.6, 2.4

Real Retail and Food Services Sales 0.7 percent change yoy on 1-2026 2.6, 2.6, 1.0, 1.7, 1.4, 2.0, 1.1, 0.5, -0.2, 0.7

Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) 3.0 percent change yoy on 1-2026 4.7, 2.9, 4.0, 3.8, 4.7, 3.9, 3.0, 2.9, 2.1, 3.0

Total Vehicle Sales -1.8 percent change yoy on 2-2026 -1.9, 3.1, 4.0, 5.8, 3.9, -3.9, -5.3, -5.2, -4.6, -1.8

Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores 2.0 percent change yoy on 1-2026 -0.3, -1.8, 0.1, 1.1, 3.2, 6.1, 3.5, 3.1, 2.9, 2.0

Residential Construction Indicators

New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits -5.1 percent change yoy on 1-2026 -2.5, -0.9, -4.7, -5.2, -9.9, -1.3, -1.2, -8.0, -1.7, -5.1

Nonperforming Total Loans (past due 90+ days plus nonaccrual) to Total Loans 1.1 on 7/01/2020 1.1

Credit and Financial Indicators

10-Year US Treasury 4.2 on 3/19/2026 4.2, 4.1, 4.2, 4.2, 4.3, 4.3, 4.2, 4.2, 4.3, 4.2

Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) 0.6 on 3/20/2026 0.4, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.6, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.6

Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) 0.5 on 3/20/2026 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.5, 0.6, 0.6, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5

M2 Money Stock 4.3 percent change yoy on 1-2026 3.9, 3.9, 4.1, 4.4, 4.2, 4.2, 4.3, 3.9, 4.2, 4.3

All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets -1.5 percent change yoy on 3/18/2026 -3.7, -3.6, -3.4, -3.0, -2.8, -2.5, -2.3, -1.9, -1.7, -1.5

Kansas City Financial Stress Index -0.6 on 2-2026 -0.5, -0.6, -0.7, -0.8, -0.8, -0.5, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.6

Chicago National Financial Conditions Index -0.5 on 3/13/2026 -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5

St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c) -0.3 on 3/13/2026 -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.6, -0.5, -0.4, -0.4, -0.3

Inflation Indicators

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) 2.4 percent change yoy on 2-2026 2.3, 2.4, 2.7, 2.7, 2.9, 3.0, 2.7, 2.7, 2.4, 2.4

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) 2.5 percent change yoy on 2-2026 2.8, 2.8, 2.9, 3.1, 3.1, 3.0, 2.6, 2.6, 2.5, 2.5

PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy) 3.1 percent change yoy on 1-2026 2.6, 2.8, 2.8, 2.9, 2.9, 2.8, 2.8, 2.8, 3.0, 3.1

Median Consumer Price Index 2.1 on 2-2026 3.1, 3.8, 3.4, 3.5, 2.4, 1.4, 1.4, 3.1, 2.3, 2.1

5yr5yr Inflation Expectations 2.1 on 3/13/2026 2.1, 2.1, 2.1, 2.1, 2.1, 2.1, 2.1, 2.1, 2.1, 2.1

Note: Indicators are updated daily at 6:00 am Eastern time.
*Indicators rated as N/A may not themselves suggest changes in the business cycle, but should be monitored nonetheless.