Recessionary signal   Warning signal   Expansionary signal   N/A*  

Leading Indicators

Leading Index for the United States 1.72 on 2-2020 1.11,1.30,1.32,1.50,1.41,1.38,1.48,1.57,1.72
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 100.00 on 8-2020 11.92,22.72,57.22,100.00,100.00,52.58,52.58,82.38,100.00
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.79 on 8-2020 -0.26,-0.11,0.02,-4.33,-17.80,4.31,5.84,2.54,0.79

Employment Indicators

Civilian Unemployment Rate 125.7% change yoy on 9-2020 -10.00,-7.89,15.79,308.33,269.44,200.00,175.68,127.03,125.71
U-6 Unemployment Rate 85.5% change yoy on 9-2020 -13.75,-2.78,17.57,212.33,194.44,150.00,139.13,97.22,85.51
Total Nonfarm Employment 661 change MoM on 9-2020 214,251,-1373,-20787,2725,4781,1761,1489,661
4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims 301.5% change yoy on 10-10-2020 444.73,396.17,357.90,354.14,328.37,312.19,308.57,301.05,301.51
Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts) -2.3% change yoy on 8-2020 0.86,1.64,2.17,-0.41,-6.21,-4.74,-3.43,-2.73,-2.32
Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees -0.7% change yoy on 9-2020 -0.98,0.00,-0.74,-6.40,-4.68,-3.69,-1.49,-1.23,-0.74
Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) 4.6% change yoy on 9-2020 3.33,3.32,3.52,7.67,6.62,5.37,4.67,4.82,4.60

Production Indicators

Industrial Production Index -7.3% change yoy on 9-2020 -0.85,-0.24,-4.70,-16.26,-15.83,-10.68,-6.77,-7.01,-7.28
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries 2.5% change yoy on 8-2020 -6.18,-7.86,-3.66,-25.42,-65.39,-56.48,-15.40,7.19,2.46
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods -10.6% change yoy on 8-2020 -18.57,-11.40,-1.90,-39.91,-30.34,-6.53,-23.91,-19.10,-10.56

Consumer Indicators

Real Person Consumption Expenditures -3.2% change yoy on 8-2020 3.02,2.69,2.61,-4.69,-16.53,-9.64,-4.58,-3.70,-3.24
Real Retail and Food Services Sales 3.9% change yoy on 9-2020 2.33,2.11,-7.00,-20.17,-5.77,1.51,1.65,1.42,3.89
Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) 8.2% change yoy on 9-2020 4.66,4.40,-2.60,-15.33,-0.97,5.68,5.81,5.36,8.18
Total Vehicle Sales -5.0% change yoy on 9-2020 0.03,0.68,-34.11,-47.19,-30.53,-24.75,-14.41,-11.24,-5.03
Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores -6.4% change yoy on 9-2020 0.16,0.30,-18.06,-53.27,-42.18,-19.63,-6.01,-3.85,-6.44

Residential Construction Indicators

New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits 0.3% change yoy on 8-2020 9.22,16.72,10.19,2.19,-19.85,-9.12,-1.18,8.57,0.34
Nonperforming Total Loans (past due 90+ days plus nonaccrual) to Total Loans 1.0 on 4-2020 1.02,0.98,0.95,0.95,0.89,0.87,0.85,0.87,1.0

Credit and Financial Indicators

10-Year Treasury 0.81% on 10-20-2020 0.81,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.81
Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) 0.71% on 10-20-2020 0.46,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.47
Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) 0.67% on 10-20-2020 0.65,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.67
M2 Money Stock 23.8% change yoy on 10-05-2020 23.33,23.64,23.08,23.32,24.00,24.74,24.42,23.64,23.75
All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets 80.3% change yoy on 10-14-2020 86.21,85.92,86.56,85.97,83.75,83.87,78.82,79.11,80.30
Kansas City Financial Stress Index 0.08 on 9-2020 -0.59,-0.42,2.11,1.63,0.88,0.45,0.24,-0.05,0.08
Chicago National Financial Conditions Index -0.50183 on 10-09-2020 -0.513,-0.52894,-0.53294,-0.52917,-0.52018,-0.51394,-0.50454,-0.50116,-0.50183
St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c) -0.07 on 3-13-2020 -1.561,-1.556,-1.462,-1.517,-1.604,-1.596,-1.215,-0.942,-0.07

Inflation Indicators

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) 1.4% change yoy on 9-2020 2.48,2.32,1.52,0.38,0.24,0.71,1.03,1.32,1.41
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) 1.7% change yoy on 9-2020 2.27,2.37,2.10,1.44,1.24,1.19,1.57,1.73,1.73
PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy) 1.6% change yoy on 8-2020 1.62,1.75,1.87,1.65,0.93,1.01,1.14,1.40,1.59
Median Consumer Price Index 1.11 on 9-2020 3.70,2.71,2.50,1.76,3.25,1.41,3.94,2.32,1.11
5yr5yr Inflation Expectations 1.89 on 10-19-2020 1.81,1.88,1.88,1.9,1.88,1.86,1.86,1.89,1.89


Note: Indicators are updated daily at 6:00 am Eastern time.
*Indicators rated as N/A may not themselves suggest changes in the business cycle, but should be monitored nonetheless.
Last Update on: 10-21-2020