Recessionary signal   Warning signal   Expansionary signal   N/A*  

Leading Indicators

Leading Index for the United States 98.7 on 10-2022 100.5, 100.3, 100.1, 99.8, 99.5, 99.3, 99.1, 98.9, 98.8, 98.7
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 0.9 on 10-2022 0.02, 0.04, 0.08, 0.14, 0.26, 0.18, 0.08, 0.24, 0.3, 0.9
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.05 on 10-2022 0.48, 0.5, 0.2, 0.21, -0.25, -0.28, 0.27, 0.14, 0.17, -0.05

Employment Indicators

Civilian Unemployment Rate -11.9 percent change yoy on 11-2022 -38.7%, -40.0%, -40.0%, -37.9%, -39.0%, -35.2%, -28.8%, -25.5%, -19.6%, -11.9
U-6 Unemployment Rate -13.0 percent change yoy on 11-2022 -35.1%, -35.5%, -32.0%, -29.7%, -31.6%, -27.2%, -20.5%, -21.2%, -17.1%, -13.0
Total Nonfarm Employment 263 change period over period on 11-2022 714%, 398%, 368%, 386%, 293%, 537%, 292%, 269%, 284%, 263
4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims -5.8 percent change yoy on 12/03/2022 -43.4%, -40.3%, -36.8%, -30.5%, -27.1%, -24.7%, -20.8%, -15.0%, -10.9%, -5.8
Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts) -0.1 percent change yoy on 10-2022 2.2%, 2.4%, 1.5%, 0.9%, 0.4%, -0.2%, 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.2%, -0.1
Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees -0.2 percent change yoy on 11-2022 0.7%, 0.5%, 0.2%, 0.0%, 0.0%, -0.2%, -0.2%, -0.2%, 0.2%, -0.2
Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) 5.8 percent change yoy on 11-2022 6.7%, 6.7%, 6.6%, 6.4%, 6.4%, 6.2%, 6.0%, 5.8%, 5.6%, 5.8

Production Indicators

Industrial Production Index 3.3 percent change yoy on 10-2022 2.9%, 6.9%, 4.8%, 5.3%, 4.4%, 3.9%, 3.9%, 3.8%, 5.0%, 3.3
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries 16.4 percent change yoy on 10-2022 -4.9%, 3.6%, 6.3%, 17.2%, 14.8%, 17.8%, 8.2%, 13.4%, 21.8%, 16.4
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods 16.7 percent change yoy on 10-2022 30.3%, 16.3%, 13.5%, 12.6%, 11.3%, 7.6%, 15.8%, 7.3%, 16.4%, 16.7

Consumer Indicators

Real Person Consumption Expenditures 1.8 percent change yoy on 10-2022 5.6%, 6.7%, 2.3%, 2.4%, 2.6%, 2.1%, 2.1%, 2.1%, 2.0%, 1.8
Real Retail and Food Services Sales 0.5 percent change yoy on 10-2022 5.8%, 9.1%, -1.4%, -0.4%, 0.2%, -0.2%, 1.4%, 1.4%, 0.3%, 0.5
Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) 7.5 percent change yoy on 10-2022 12.2%, 15.5%, 5.2%, 6.2%, 7.5%, 8.2%, 10.0%, 9.3%, 8.0%, 7.5
Total Vehicle Sales 8.1 percent change yoy on 11-2022 -12.1%, -23.2%, -21.0%, -24.1%, -14.2%, -8.3%, 1.9%, 10.8%, 14.3%, 8.1
Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores -12.1 percent change yoy on 10-2022 -1.6%, 6.3%, -4.3%, -4.4%, -5.9%, -11.5%, -10.8%, -7.9%, -8.6%, -12.1

Residential Construction Indicators

New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits -11.0 percent change yoy on 10-2022 -0.1%, 6.5%, 6.0%, 3.3%, 0.2%, 2.1%, 1.8%, -13.0%, -3.2%, -11.0

Credit and Financial Indicators

10-Year US Treasury 3.42 on 12/07/2022 3.71, 3.68, 3.69, 3.75, 3.68, 3.53, 3.51, 3.60, 3.51, 3.42
Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) -0.8 on 12/08/2022 -0.73, -0.72, -0.63, -0.69, -0.8, -0.83, -0.76, -0.86, -0.87, -0.8
Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) -0.83 on 12/08/2022 -0.74, -0.77, -0.73, -0.7, -0.72, -0.77, -0.81, -0.83, -0.84, -0.83
M2 Money Stock 1.3 percent change yoy on 10-2022 11.8%, 10.7%, 9.5%, 7.6%, 6.0%, 5.6%, 5.0%, 3.8%, 2.6%, 1.3
All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets -0.9 percent change yoy on 12/07/2022 3.5%, 3.3%, 2.1%, 2.0%, 1.2%, 0.2%, -0.6%, -0.7%, -0.8%, -0.9
Kansas City Financial Stress Index 0.454380639 on 10-2022 -0.339385019, -0.29115429, -0.041325426, -0.310664555, 0.005061483, 0.022888899, 0.072086646, -0.152276724, 0.086611615, 0.454380639
Chicago National Financial Conditions Index -0.22078 on 12/02/2022 -0.03933, -0.02888, -0.03035, -0.05316, -0.08257, -0.12007, -0.15732, -0.18645, -0.20847, -0.22078
St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c) -0.070 on 3/13/2020 -1.215, -0.942, -0.070

Inflation Indicators

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) 7.8 percent change yoy on 10-2022 7.5%, 7.9%, 8.6%, 8.2%, 8.5%, 9.0%, 8.5%, 8.2%, 8.2%, 7.8
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) 6.3 percent change yoy on 10-2022 6.0%, 6.4%, 6.4%, 6.1%, 6.0%, 5.9%, 5.9%, 6.3%, 6.7%, 6.3
PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy) 5.0 percent change yoy on 10-2022 5.2%, 5.4%, 5.4%, 5.0%, 4.9%, 5.0%, 4.7%, 4.9%, 5.2%, 5.0
Median Consumer Price Index 6.53285227911871 on 10-2022 7.1415250188255195, 6.506399412010389, 5.90259408093989, 6.52799274334135, 7.211770314354251, 9.13053844453233, 6.483074093938071, 9.22297280623934, 8.307775541225281, 6.53285227911871
5yr5yr Inflation Expectations 2.2 on 12/08/2022 2.3, 2.23, 2.2, 2.27, 2.27, 2.35, 2.32, 2.24, 2.19, 2.2


Note: Indicators are updated daily at 6:00 am Eastern time.
*Indicators rated as N/A may not themselves suggest changes in the business cycle, but should be monitored nonetheless.
Last Update on: 12/09/2022