Recessionary signal
Warning signal
Expansionary signal
N/A*
Leading Indicators
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
0.28
on 12-2020
100.00,0.04,0.02,0.00,0.00,0.08,0.06,0.42,0.28
Employment Indicators
Civilian Unemployment Rate
80.0% change yoy
on 1-2021
259.46,208.33,183.33,127.03,122.86,91.67,86.11,86.11,80.00
U-6 Unemployment Rate
60.9% change yoy
on 1-2021
194.44,150.00,139.13,97.22,85.51,72.86,73.91,72.06,60.87
4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims
284.6% change yoy
on 2-20-2021
269.69,271.33,284.95,292.08,299.29,307.86,299.88,298.20,284.64
Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts)
-2.0% change yoy
on 1-2021
-4.33,-2.86,-1.65,-1.09,-0.28,0.29,-0.97,-0.93,-2.04
Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees
0.0% change yoy
on 1-2021
-4.43,-3.69,-1.49,-0.99,-0.49,0.25,-0.49,-0.74,0.00
Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory)
5.4% change yoy
on 1-2021
6.79,5.54,4.80,4.95,4.64,4.46,4.70,5.49,5.44
Production Indicators
Industrial Production Index
-1.8% change yoy
on 1-2021
-15.72,-10.50,-6.58,-6.34,-6.12,-4.66,-4.71,-3.15,-1.83
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries
9.7% change yoy
on 12-2020
-65.39,-56.48,-15.40,7.19,2.59,4.34,3.32,6.02,9.65
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods
7.3% change yoy
on 1-2021
-6.53,-23.91,-19.10,-10.17,3.05,1.04,4.61,12.03,7.29
Consumer Indicators
Real Person Consumption Expenditures
-1.9% change yoy
on 1-2021
-9.64,-4.58,-3.61,-2.94,-1.95,-1.94,-2.61,-3.39,-1.86
Real Retail and Food Services Sales
6.0% change yoy
on 1-2021
-5.76,1.49,1.64,2.25,4.62,4.19,2.62,1.21,5.98
Retail Sales: Total (ex food services)
10.8% change yoy
on 1-2021
-0.97,5.68,5.81,6.33,9.00,8.24,6.65,5.88,10.83
Total Vehicle Sales
-0.9% change yoy
on 1-2021
-30.54,-24.73,-14.44,-11.74,-5.20,-2.57,-7.19,-3.53,-0.93
Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores
-3.5% change yoy
on 1-2021
-42.18,-19.63,-6.01,-4.14,-7.26,-4.36,-9.53,-15.70,-3.50
Residential Construction Indicators
New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits
22.8% change yoy
on 1-2021
-9.12,-1.18,8.57,0.34,7.52,2.73,8.28,16.95,22.79
Nonperforming Total Loans (past due 90+ days plus nonaccrual) to Total Loans
1.06
on 7-2020
0.98,0.95,0.95,0.89,0.87,0.85,0.87,1.0,1.06
Credit and Financial Indicators
All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets
82.5% change yoy
on 2-24-2021
76.43,76.76,75.63,78.85,78.36,77.85,77.93,81.16,82.51
Chicago National Financial Conditions Index
-0.65002
on 2-19-2021
-0.62215,-0.61898,-0.61583,-0.6134,-0.61803,-0.6224,-0.63192,-0.64179,-0.65002
St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c)
-0.07
on 3-13-2020
-1.561,-1.556,-1.462,-1.517,-1.604,-1.596,-1.215,-0.942,-0.07
Inflation Indicators
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items)
1.4% change yoy
on 1-2021
0.22,0.73,1.05,1.32,1.41,1.19,1.14,1.30,1.37
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy)
1.4% change yoy
on 1-2021
1.24,1.20,1.56,1.70,1.72,1.63,1.65,1.61,1.40
PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy)
1.5% change yoy
on 1-2021
1.01,1.14,1.26,1.43,1.53,1.42,1.37,1.45,1.53