Recessionary signal   Warning signal   Expansionary signal   N/A*  

Leading Indicators

Leading Index for the United States 1.72 on 2-2020 1.11,1.30,1.32,1.50,1.41,1.38,1.48,1.57,1.72
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 1.82 on 12-2021 0.74,0.30,0.10,0.18,1.72,1.70,0.20,0.56,1.82
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.01 on 5-2022 -0.07,0.83,0.54,0.06,0.51,0.60,0.19,0.40,0.01

Employment Indicators

Civilian Unemployment Rate -37.5% change yoy on 1-2022 -56.06,-46.36,-47.06,-38.10,-40.51,-33.33,-37.31,-41.79,-37.50
U-6 Unemployment Rate -36.0% change yoy on 1-2022 -52.36,-45.56,-44.24,-38.46,-33.59,-32.23,-35.83,-37.61,-36.04
Total Nonfarm Employment 467 change MoM on 1-2022 447,557,689,517,424,677,647,510,467
4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims -70.4% change yoy on 2-05-2022 -74.62,-74.57,-75.73,-74.60,-74.04,-72.17,-70.97,-70.52,-70.40
Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts) 1.6% change yoy on 12-2021 8.49,6.88,5.42,4.77,3.59,2.74,1.50,1.63,1.58
Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees -0.7% change yoy on 1-2022 4.39,3.07,2.02,1.00,0.50,-0.49,0.00,0.50,-0.74
Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) 6.9% change yoy on 1-2022 2.76,4.11,5.10,5.20,5.89,6.36,6.54,6.24,6.91

Production Indicators

Industrial Production Index 4.1% change yoy on 1-2022 16.40,10.21,6.62,5.42,4.44,4.75,5.12,3.80,4.08
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries -4.0% change yoy on 12-2021 153.43,101.85,5.87,-9.76,-8.99,-12.13,-5.25,-5.07,-3.95
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods 10.8% change yoy on 5-2022 16.46,14.76,24.54,21.95,30.29,16.35,13.52,12.62,10.83

Consumer Indicators

Real Person Consumption Expenditures 7.1% change yoy on 12-2021 25.42,15.07,9.35,7.46,7.50,6.38,6.88,7.23,7.12
Real Retail and Food Services Sales 5.1% change yoy on 1-2022 22.01,12.83,9.54,9.96,8.32,9.42,11.30,8.97,5.05
Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) 11.4% change yoy on 1-2022 23.87,16.54,12.86,13.83,12.33,14.70,16.95,14.02,11.42
Total Vehicle Sales -9.9% change yoy on 1-2022 39.83,18.60,0.10,-13.87,-24.01,-19.97,-17.53,-22.42,-9.95
Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores -2.9% change yoy on 1-2022 92.60,43.12,21.70,16.39,18.23,18.67,9.30,11.20,-2.88

Residential Construction Indicators

New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits 7.2% change yoy on 12-2021 58.41,35.07,22.99,5.71,13.07,-0.19,3.64,1.24,7.22
Nonperforming Total Loans (past due 90+ days plus nonaccrual) to Total Loans 1.06 on 7-2020 0.98,0.95,0.95,0.89,0.87,0.85,0.87,1.0,1.06

Credit and Financial Indicators

10-Year US Treasury 2.93 on 7-15-2022 2.82,2.93,3.01,3.09,2.99,2.96,2.91,2.96,2.93
Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) 0.46 on 7-18-2022 1.03,1.06,1.11,0.81,0.74,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.46
Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) -0.19 on 7-18-2022 -0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.08,-0.07,-0.22,-0.19,-0.2,-0.19
M2 Money Stock 13.1% change yoy on 12-2021 18.19,14.05,12.40,12.35,13.36,12.88,13.01,13.07,13.11
All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets 19.3% change yoy on 2-09-2022 18.93,18.73,18.93,19.51,19.83,19.59,19.66,19.74,19.29
Kansas City Financial Stress Index -0.36 on 1-2022 -0.77,-0.72,-0.61,-0.67,-0.64,-0.62,-0.69,-0.48,-0.36
Chicago National Financial Conditions Index -0.20212 on 5-20-2022 -0.37529,-0.36787,-0.35911,-0.34498,-0.31829,-0.28683,-0.25751,-0.22865,-0.20212
St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c) -0.07 on 3-13-2020 -1.561,-1.556,-1.462,-1.517,-1.604,-1.596,-1.215,-0.942,-0.07

Inflation Indicators

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) 7.5% change yoy on 1-2022 4.94,5.34,5.28,5.21,5.39,6.24,6.83,7.10,7.53
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) 6.0% change yoy on 1-2022 3.81,4.45,4.20,3.96,4.04,4.59,4.95,5.48,6.04
PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy) 4.9% change yoy on 12-2021 3.08,3.46,3.59,3.60,3.60,3.70,4.16,4.66,4.85
Median Consumer Price Index 7.14 on 1-2022 3.59,3.99,2.76,4.03,4.97,6.25,5.86,5.28,7.14
5yr5yr Inflation Expectations 2.11 on 7-18-2022 2.1,2.13,2.12,2.08,2.14,2.11,2.14,2.13,2.11


Note: Indicators are updated daily at 6:00 am Eastern time.
*Indicators rated as N/A may not themselves suggest changes in the business cycle, but should be monitored nonetheless.
Last Update on: 8-11-2022