Indicators | Last Recession

Recessionary signal Warning signal Expansionary signal N/A*

Leading Indicators

Leading Index for the United States 98.6 on 2-2023 99.8, 99.5, 99.3, 99.1, 98.9, 98.8, 98.7, 98.7, 98.6, 98.6

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 0.9 on 1-2023 0.1, 0.2, 0.1, 0.0, 0.1, 0.1, 0.4, 1.5, 1.4, 0.9

Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.2 on 2-2023 -0.3, -0.3, 0.3, 0.1, 0.0, -0.1, -0.6, -0.4, 0.2, -0.2

Employment Indicators

Civilian Unemployment Rate -5.26316 percent change yoy on 2-2023 -37.93103%, -38.98305%, -35.18519%, -28.84615%, -27.08333%, -17.77778%, -14.28571%, -10.25641%, -15.00000%, -5.26316

U-6 Unemployment Rate -5.6 percent change yoy on 2-2023 -29.7%, -31.6%, -26.1%, -20.5%, -21.2%, -18.3%, -13.0%, -11.0%, -7.0%, -5.6

Total Nonfarm Employment 311.0 change period over period on 2-2023 364.0%, 370.0%, 568.0%, 352.0%, 350.0%, 324.0%, 290.0%, 239.0%, 504.0%, 311.0

4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims 8.6 percent change yoy on 3/18/2023 -9.4%, -14.5%, -16.1%, -12.8%, -9.2%, -5.8%, -1.0%, 0.3%, 4.1%, 8.6

Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts) 1.6 percent change yoy on 1-2023 0.9%, 0.4%, -0.2%, 0.5%, 1.0%, 0.9%, 0.6%, 0.7%, 1.0%, 1.6

Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees -1.0 percent change yoy on 2-2023 0.0%, 0.0%, -0.2%, -0.2%, -0.5%, 0.2%, -0.5%, -0.7%, 0.5%, -1.0

Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) 5.3 percent change yoy on 2-2023 6.7%, 6.7%, 6.6%, 6.2%, 5.9%, 5.7%, 5.7%, 5.4%, 5.2%, 5.3

Production Indicators

Industrial Production Index -0.2 percent change yoy on 2-2023 4.4%, 3.7%, 3.6%, 3.5%, 4.7%, 3.0%, 1.8%, 0.6%, 0.5%, -0.2

Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries 13.4 percent change yoy on 1-2023 17.2%, 14.8%, 17.8%, 8.2%, 13.4%, 21.8%, 16.1%, 13.9%, 11.9%, 13.4

Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods -3.5 percent change yoy on 1-2023 12.6%, 11.3%, 7.6%, 15.8%, 7.3%, 16.4%, 15.7%, 4.1%, 23.3%, -3.5

Consumer Indicators

Real Person Consumption Expenditures 2.4 percent change yoy on 1-2023 2.4%, 2.6%, 2.1%, 2.2%, 2.3%, 2.1%, 1.8%, 1.5%, 2.0%, 2.4

Real Retail and Food Services Sales -0.6 percent change yoy on 2-2023 0.2%, -0.1%, 1.5%, 1.4%, 0.2%, 0.2%, -1.1%, -0.2%, 1.3%, -0.6

Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) 4.0 percent change yoy on 2-2023 7.5%, 8.2%, 10.0%, 9.3%, 7.8%, 7.2%, 5.0%, 5.0%, 5.5%, 4.0

Total Vehicle Sales 8.3 percent change yoy on 2-2023 -24.1%, -14.2%, -8.4%, 1.9%, 10.9%, 15.5%, 9.7%, 5.3%, 5.3%, 8.3

Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores -2.8 percent change yoy on 2-2023 -5.9%, -11.5%, -10.8%, -7.9%, -9.9%, -13.4%, -8.4%, -10.9%, -1.6%, -2.8

Residential Construction Indicators

New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits -16.5 percent change yoy on 2-2023 0.2%, 2.1%, 1.8%, -13.0%, -3.2%, -11.0%, -21.9%, -29.5%, -27.3%, -16.5

Nonperforming Total Loans (past due 90+ days plus nonaccrual) to Total Loans 1.1 on 7/01/2020 1.1

Credit and Financial Indicators

10-Year US Treasury 3.5 on 3/22/2023 3.9, 3.7, 3.6, 3.6, 3.5, 3.6, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6, 3.5

Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) -1.4 on 3/23/2023 -1.3, -1.3, -1.2, -1.2, -1.2, -1.1, -1.3, -1.2, -1.3, -1.4

Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) -0.4 on 3/23/2023 -0.9, -0.5, -0.6, -0.4, -0.6, -0.4, -0.4, -0.6, -0.5, -0.4

M2 Money Stock -1.7 percent change yoy on 1-2023 7.7%, 6.1%, 5.6%, 5.0%, 3.9%, 2.7%, 1.4%, 0.3%, -1.1%, -1.7

All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets -2.6 percent change yoy on 3/22/2023 -4.3%, -4.4%, -5.0%, -5.0%, -5.9%, -6.1%, -6.3%, -6.4%, -3.5%, -2.6

Kansas City Financial Stress Index -0.4 on 2-2023 0.0, 0.0, 0.1, -0.2, 0.1, 0.5, -0.0, -0.1, -0.1, -0.4

Chicago National Financial Conditions Index -0.2 on 3/17/2023 -0.3, -0.3, -0.3, -0.3, -0.3, -0.3, -0.3, -0.3, -0.3, -0.2

St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c) -0.1 on 3/13/2020 -0.1

Inflation Indicators

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) 6.0 percent change yoy on 2-2023 8.5%, 8.9%, 8.4%, 8.2%, 8.2%, 7.8%, 7.1%, 6.4%, 6.3%, 6.0

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) 5.5 percent change yoy on 2-2023 6.0%, 5.9%, 5.9%, 6.3%, 6.6%, 6.3%, 6.0%, 5.7%, 5.5%, 5.5

PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy) 4.7 percent change yoy on 1-2023 5.0%, 4.9%, 5.0%, 4.7%, 4.9%, 5.2%, 5.1%, 4.8%, 4.6%, 4.7

Median Consumer Price Index 7.9 on 2-2023 7.5, 7.9, 6.4, 8.5, 8.4, 6.5, 5.8, 7.0, 8.1, 7.9

5yr5yr Inflation Expectations 2.1 on 3/23/2023 2.2, 2.2, 2.3, 2.2, 2.2, 2.1, 2.1, 2.2, 2.2, 2.1

Note: Indicators are updated daily at 6:00 am Eastern time.
*Indicators rated as N/A may not themselves suggest changes in the business cycle, but should be monitored nonetheless.