Recessionary signal   Warning signal   Expansionary signal   N/A*  

Leading Indicators

Leading Index for the United States 1.72 on 2-2020 1.11,1.30,1.32,1.50,1.41,1.38,1.48,1.57,1.72
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 2.30 on 11-2020 100.00,100.00,0.10,0.05,0.00,0.00,0.20,0.45,2.30
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.27 on 11-2020 -4.35,-17.73,4.30,5.96,2.65,1.14,0.40,1.01,0.27

Employment Indicators

Civilian Unemployment Rate 86.1% change yoy on 12-2020 300.00,259.46,208.33,183.33,127.03,122.86,91.67,86.11,86.11
U-6 Unemployment Rate 72.1% change yoy on 12-2020 209.46,194.44,150.00,139.13,97.22,85.51,72.86,73.91,72.06
Total Nonfarm Employment -140 change MoM on 12-2020 -20787,2725,4781,1761,1493,711,654,336,-140
4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims 289.4% change yoy on 1-09-2021 240.27,245.97,243.62,254.96,268.86,268.09,269.69,271.33,289.38
Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts) -0.2% change yoy on 11-2020 -0.41,-6.01,-4.33,-2.86,-1.40,-0.66,0.23,0.90,-0.24
Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees -0.5% change yoy on 12-2020 -6.40,-4.68,-3.69,-1.49,-0.99,-0.74,0.25,-0.50,-0.50
Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) 5.2% change yoy on 12-2020 7.67,6.62,5.37,4.67,4.82,4.47,4.46,4.54,5.24

Production Indicators

Industrial Production Index -3.6% change yoy on 12-2020 -16.26,-15.72,-10.50,-6.58,-6.55,-6.28,-4.97,-5.41,-3.58
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries 5.3% change yoy on 11-2020 -25.42,-65.39,-56.48,-15.40,7.19,2.59,4.34,3.32,5.31
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods 3.9% change yoy on 11-2020 -39.91,-30.34,-6.53,-23.91,-19.10,-10.17,3.05,1.04,3.90

Consumer Indicators

Real Person Consumption Expenditures -2.4% change yoy on 11-2020 -4.69,-16.53,-9.64,-4.58,-3.61,-2.94,-1.95,-1.84,-2.36
Real Retail and Food Services Sales 1.6% change yoy on 12-2020 -20.17,-5.77,1.51,1.65,2.26,4.62,4.18,2.49,1.59
Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) 6.3% change yoy on 12-2020 -15.33,-0.97,5.68,5.81,6.33,9.00,8.24,6.51,6.29
Total Vehicle Sales -8.1% change yoy on 11-2020 -34.11,-47.20,-30.54,-24.73,-14.43,-11.72,-5.19,-3.06,-8.07
Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores -16.6% change yoy on 12-2020 -53.27,-42.18,-19.63,-6.01,-4.14,-7.26,-4.36,-12.01,-16.59

Residential Construction Indicators

New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits 8.3% change yoy on 11-2020 2.19,-19.85,-9.12,-1.18,8.57,0.34,7.52,2.73,8.28
Nonperforming Total Loans (past due 90+ days plus nonaccrual) to Total Loans 1.06 on 7-2020 0.98,0.95,0.95,0.89,0.87,0.85,0.87,1.0,1.06

Credit and Financial Indicators

10-Year Treasury 1.11% on 1-15-2021 0.96,1.04,1.08,1.13,1.15,1.15,1.1,1.15,1.11
Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) 1.02% on 1-15-2021 0.57,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.69
Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) 0.98% on 1-15-2021 0.83,0.9,0.94,0.99,1.01,1.01,0.96,0.99,0.98
M2 Money Stock 25.0% change yoy on 1-04-2021 25.28,25.29,25.12,24.33,25.98,26.01,25.26,24.38,25.05
All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets 75.6% change yoy on 1-13-2021 79.72,78.06,77.64,76.84,77.97,77.74,76.43,76.76,75.63
Kansas City Financial Stress Index -0.43 on 12-2020 1.63,0.88,0.45,0.23,-0.05,0.08,0.22,0.25,-0.43
Chicago National Financial Conditions Index -0.61765 on 1-08-2021 -0.55562,-0.58098,-0.60125,-0.61622,-0.62445,-0.62732,-0.62473,-0.62184,-0.61765
St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c) -0.07 on 3-13-2020 -1.561,-1.556,-1.462,-1.517,-1.604,-1.596,-1.215,-0.942,-0.07

Inflation Indicators

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) 1.3% change yoy on 12-2020 0.38,0.24,0.71,1.03,1.32,1.41,1.20,1.16,1.29
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) 1.6% change yoy on 12-2020 1.44,1.24,1.19,1.57,1.73,1.73,1.63,1.65,1.61
PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy) 1.4% change yoy on 11-2020 1.65,0.93,1.01,1.14,1.26,1.43,1.53,1.41,1.38
Median Consumer Price Index 1.73 on 12-2020 1.76,3.25,1.41,3.94,2.32,1.11,1.91,0.64,1.73
5yr5yr Inflation Expectations 2.11 on 1-15-2021 2.05,2.08,2.09,2.05,2.08,2.1,2.08,2.09,2.11


Note: Indicators are updated daily at 6:00 am Eastern time.
*Indicators rated as N/A may not themselves suggest changes in the business cycle, but should be monitored nonetheless.
Last Update on: 1-17-2021