Recessionary signal   Warning signal   Expansionary signal   N/A*  

Leading Indicators

Leading Index for the United States 1.72 on 2-2020 1.11,1.30,1.32,1.50,1.41,1.38,1.48,1.57,1.72
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 0.92 on 4-2021 0.00,0.06,0.04,0.24,0.22,0.02,0.00,0.00,0.92
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.24 on 4-2021 1.24,0.43,1.01,0.35,0.34,1.09,-1.75,1.71,0.24

Employment Indicators

Civilian Unemployment Rate -56.4% change yoy on 5-2021 122.86,91.67,86.11,86.11,80.00,77.14,36.36,-58.78,-56.39
U-6 Unemployment Rate -51.9% change yoy on 5-2021 85.51,72.86,73.91,72.06,60.87,58.57,21.59,-54.59,-51.89
Total Nonfarm Employment 559 change MoM on 5-2021 716,680,264,-306,233,536,785,278,559
4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims -75.7% change yoy on 6-12-2021 -87.63,-86.70,-85.31,-83.21,-81.13,-79.92,-78.44,-77.54,-75.70
Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts) 9.2% change yoy on 4-2021 -1.09,-0.28,0.94,0.07,0.28,-0.50,-0.99,2.35,9.20
Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees 4.4% change yoy on 5-2021 -0.49,0.25,-0.49,-0.99,0.00,-0.98,0.50,6.32,4.38
Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) 2.4% change yoy on 5-2021 4.64,4.46,4.70,5.49,5.28,5.22,4.64,1.19,2.36

Production Indicators

Industrial Production Index 16.3% change yoy on 5-2021 -6.56,-4.75,-4.73,-3.28,-1.75,-4.82,1.52,17.60,16.32
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries 161.0% change yoy on 4-2021 1.80,4.06,3.35,6.00,9.86,10.60,-3.05,27.47,160.98
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods 63.1% change yoy on 4-2021 -21.81,-15.26,-22.41,-6.08,-2.94,2.08,16.84,131.47,63.11

Consumer Indicators

Real Person Consumption Expenditures 24.0% change yoy on 4-2021 -2.94,-1.95,-1.86,-2.58,-3.52,-0.98,-2.13,8.92,24.02
Real Retail and Food Services Sales 22.1% change yoy on 5-2021 4.49,4.30,2.61,1.00,7.92,4.74,26.37,47.29,22.13
Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) 24.4% change yoy on 5-2021 8.94,8.45,6.77,5.83,12.93,9.76,28.92,48.09,24.38
Total Vehicle Sales 41.3% change yoy on 5-2021 -5.20,-2.57,-7.19,-3.53,-0.14,-5.06,57.23,112.36,41.32
Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores 91.3% change yoy on 5-2021 -9.61,-4.46,-8.82,-13.89,0.78,-3.96,35.93,139.86,91.27

Residential Construction Indicators

New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits 34.9% change yoy on 5-2021 10.42,5.70,12.39,20.99,21.48,16.78,26.99,58.41,34.91
Nonperforming Total Loans (past due 90+ days plus nonaccrual) to Total Loans 1.06 on 7-2020 0.98,0.95,0.95,0.89,0.87,0.85,0.87,1.0,1.06

Credit and Financial Indicators

10-Year Treasury 1.45% on 6-18-2021 1.53,1.5,1.45,1.47,1.51,1.51,1.57,1.52,1.45
Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) 1.4% on 6-18-2021 1.18,1.14,1.11,1.13,1.17,1.18,1.25,1.23,1.17
Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) 1.19% on 6-18-2021 1.39,1.34,1.31,1.31,1.35,1.35,1.36,1.29,1.19
M2 Money Stock 25.7% change yoy on 2-01-2021 25.29,25.27,24.53,23.66,24.30,26.43,26.12,25.62,25.74
All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets 13.7% change yoy on 6-16-2021 18.98,16.90,16.20,12.93,12.58,11.36,10.75,10.93,13.67
Kansas City Financial Stress Index -0.83 on 5-2021 0.08,0.13,0.22,-0.35,-0.27,-0.47,-0.32,-0.77,-0.83
Chicago National Financial Conditions Index -0.71895 on 6-11-2021 -0.69117,-0.69536,-0.70006,-0.70468,-0.70802,-0.70915,-0.7128,-0.71629,-0.71895
St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c) -0.07 on 3-13-2020 -1.561,-1.556,-1.462,-1.517,-1.604,-1.596,-1.215,-0.942,-0.07

Inflation Indicators

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) 4.9% change yoy on 5-2021 1.41,1.19,1.14,1.30,1.37,1.68,2.64,4.15,4.93
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) 3.8% change yoy on 5-2021 1.72,1.63,1.65,1.61,1.40,1.28,1.65,2.96,3.80
PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy) 3.1% change yoy on 4-2021 1.43,1.53,1.40,1.34,1.41,1.44,1.43,1.94,3.06
Median Consumer Price Index 3.21 on 5-2021 1.17,2.80,0.98,1.73,0.98,2.84,1.83,2.90,3.21
5yr5yr Inflation Expectations 2.11 on 6-18-2021 2.25,2.23,2.23,2.21,2.28,2.3,2.23,2.23,2.11


Note: Indicators are updated daily at 6:00 am Eastern time.
*Indicators rated as N/A may not themselves suggest changes in the business cycle, but should be monitored nonetheless.
Last Update on: 6-21-2021