Recessionary signal   Warning signal   Expansionary signal   N/A*  

Leading Indicators

Leading Index for the United States 1.72 on 2-2020 1.11,1.30,1.32,1.50,1.41,1.38,1.48,1.57,1.72
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 0.58 on 11-2021 0.00,0.60,0.28,0.04,0.10,1.20,1.14,0.28,0.58
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.37 on 11-2021 2.37,-0.11,0.11,0.28,0.76,0.02,-0.01,0.75,0.37

Employment Indicators

Civilian Unemployment Rate -41.8% change yoy on 12-2021 -59.18,-56.06,-46.36,-47.06,-38.10,-40.51,-33.33,-37.31,-41.79
U-6 Unemployment Rate -37.6% change yoy on 12-2021 -55.02,-52.36,-45.56,-44.24,-38.46,-33.59,-32.23,-35.83,-37.61
Total Nonfarm Employment 199 change MoM on 12-2021 269,614,962,1091,483,379,648,249,199
4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims -72.3% change yoy on 1-15-2022 -66.39,-67.36,-71.33,-74.62,-74.57,-75.73,-74.60,-74.04,-72.29
Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts) 1.4% change yoy on 11-2021 1.82,8.49,6.88,5.42,4.77,3.59,2.74,1.34,1.36
Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees 0.7% change yoy on 12-2021 6.32,4.12,3.07,1.76,0.75,0.50,-0.25,0.25,0.75
Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) 5.8% change yoy on 12-2021 1.15,2.36,3.84,4.82,4.84,5.53,5.96,6.02,5.81

Production Indicators

Industrial Production Index 3.7% change yoy on 12-2021 17.86,16.40,10.21,6.62,5.33,4.62,4.76,4.98,3.67
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries -5.9% change yoy on 11-2021 27.47,153.43,101.85,5.87,-9.76,-8.99,-12.13,-5.25,-5.85
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods 28.5% change yoy on 11-2021 131.47,65.88,52.37,69.57,46.04,40.65,26.27,28.44,28.53

Consumer Indicators

Real Person Consumption Expenditures 7.4% change yoy on 11-2021 9.65,25.42,15.07,9.35,7.46,7.50,6.38,6.74,7.37
Real Retail and Food Services Sales 9.2% change yoy on 12-2021 47.30,22.03,12.85,9.53,9.97,8.34,9.41,10.63,9.17
Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) 14.4% change yoy on 12-2021 48.01,23.87,16.54,12.86,13.83,12.33,14.70,16.20,14.37
Total Vehicle Sales -18.6% change yoy on 11-2021 56.03,109.60,39.82,18.61,0.12,-13.85,-24.03,-20.51,-18.62
Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores 14.6% change yoy on 12-2021 139.47,92.60,43.12,21.70,16.39,18.23,18.67,11.25,14.59

Residential Construction Indicators

New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits 6.5% change yoy on 12-2021 58.41,35.07,22.99,5.71,13.07,-0.19,3.64,1.24,6.54
Nonperforming Total Loans (past due 90+ days plus nonaccrual) to Total Loans 1.06 on 7-2020 0.98,0.95,0.95,0.89,0.87,0.85,0.87,1.0,1.06

Credit and Financial Indicators

10-Year Treasury 1.75% on 1-21-2022 1.78,1.75,1.74,1.7,1.78,1.87,1.83,1.83,1.75
Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) 1.58% on 1-21-2022 1.58,1.58,1.55,1.52,1.59,1.66,1.61,1.6,1.53
Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) 0.74% on 1-21-2022 0.86,0.85,0.82,0.79,0.79,0.81,0.79,0.75,0.74
M2 Money Stock 13.1% change yoy on 11-2021 24.37,18.19,14.05,12.40,12.35,13.35,12.87,13.01,13.07
All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets 19.6% change yoy on 1-19-2022 20.30,19.77,19.63,18.93,18.73,18.93,19.51,19.83,19.59
Kansas City Financial Stress Index -0.49 on 12-2021 -0.63,-0.76,-0.70,-0.61,-0.67,-0.63,-0.61,-0.69,-0.49
Chicago National Financial Conditions Index -0.62211 on 1-14-2022 -0.62595,-0.6071,-0.59224,-0.58746,-0.58863,-0.59262,-0.60236,-0.61286,-0.62211
St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c) -0.07 on 3-13-2020 -1.561,-1.556,-1.462,-1.517,-1.604,-1.596,-1.215,-0.942,-0.07

Inflation Indicators

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) 7.1% change yoy on 12-2021 4.15,4.93,5.32,5.28,5.20,5.38,6.24,6.88,7.12
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) 5.5% change yoy on 12-2021 2.96,3.80,4.45,4.23,3.98,4.04,4.58,4.96,5.49
PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy) 4.7% change yoy on 11-2021 1.97,3.08,3.46,3.59,3.60,3.60,3.70,4.19,4.68
Median Consumer Price Index 5.40 on 12-2021 2.90,3.21,2.91,3.68,4.10,5.57,7.10,5.59,5.40
5yr5yr Inflation Expectations 1.98 on 1-21-2022 2.19,2.21,2.14,2.09,2.09,2.12,2.07,1.92,1.98


Note: Indicators are updated daily at 6:00 am Eastern time.
*Indicators rated as N/A may not themselves suggest changes in the business cycle, but should be monitored nonetheless.
Last Update on: 1-24-2022