Recessionary signal   Warning signal   Expansionary signal   N/A*  

Leading Indicators

Leading Index for the United States 1.72 on 2-2020 1.11,1.30,1.32,1.50,1.41,1.38,1.48,1.57,1.72
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 0.28 on 12-2020 100.00,0.04,0.02,0.00,0.00,0.08,0.06,0.42,0.28
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.66 on 1-2021 4.33,6.00,2.65,1.21,0.43,1.04,0.34,0.41,0.66

Employment Indicators

Civilian Unemployment Rate 80.0% change yoy on 1-2021 259.46,208.33,183.33,127.03,122.86,91.67,86.11,86.11,80.00
U-6 Unemployment Rate 60.9% change yoy on 1-2021 194.44,150.00,139.13,97.22,85.51,72.86,73.91,72.06,60.87
Total Nonfarm Employment 49 change MoM on 1-2021 2833,4846,1726,1583,716,680,264,-227,49
4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims 284.6% change yoy on 2-20-2021 269.69,271.33,284.95,292.08,299.29,307.86,299.88,298.20,284.64
Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts) -2.0% change yoy on 1-2021 -4.33,-2.86,-1.65,-1.09,-0.28,0.29,-0.97,-0.93,-2.04
Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees 0.0% change yoy on 1-2021 -4.43,-3.69,-1.49,-0.99,-0.49,0.25,-0.49,-0.74,0.00
Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) 5.4% change yoy on 1-2021 6.79,5.54,4.80,4.95,4.64,4.46,4.70,5.49,5.44

Production Indicators

Industrial Production Index -1.8% change yoy on 1-2021 -15.72,-10.50,-6.58,-6.34,-6.12,-4.66,-4.71,-3.15,-1.83
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries 9.7% change yoy on 12-2020 -65.39,-56.48,-15.40,7.19,2.59,4.34,3.32,6.02,9.65
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods 7.3% change yoy on 1-2021 -6.53,-23.91,-19.10,-10.17,3.05,1.04,4.61,12.03,7.29

Consumer Indicators

Real Person Consumption Expenditures -1.9% change yoy on 1-2021 -9.64,-4.58,-3.61,-2.94,-1.95,-1.94,-2.61,-3.39,-1.86
Real Retail and Food Services Sales 6.0% change yoy on 1-2021 -5.76,1.49,1.64,2.25,4.62,4.19,2.62,1.21,5.98
Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) 10.8% change yoy on 1-2021 -0.97,5.68,5.81,6.33,9.00,8.24,6.65,5.88,10.83
Total Vehicle Sales -0.9% change yoy on 1-2021 -30.54,-24.73,-14.44,-11.74,-5.20,-2.57,-7.19,-3.53,-0.93
Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores -3.5% change yoy on 1-2021 -42.18,-19.63,-6.01,-4.14,-7.26,-4.36,-9.53,-15.70,-3.50

Residential Construction Indicators

New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits 22.8% change yoy on 1-2021 -9.12,-1.18,8.57,0.34,7.52,2.73,8.28,16.95,22.79
Nonperforming Total Loans (past due 90+ days plus nonaccrual) to Total Loans 1.06 on 7-2020 0.98,0.95,0.95,0.89,0.87,0.85,0.87,1.0,1.06

Credit and Financial Indicators

10-Year Treasury 1.44% on 2-26-2021 1.3,1.29,1.29,1.34,1.37,1.37,1.38,1.54,1.44
Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) 1.4% on 2-26-2021 0.9,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.99,1.19,1.11
Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) 1.3% on 2-26-2021 1.17,1.18,1.18,1.23,1.26,1.26,1.26,1.37,1.3
M2 Money Stock 25.7% change yoy on 2-01-2021 25.25,25.23,24.49,23.63,24.26,26.39,26.08,25.58,25.71
All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets 82.5% change yoy on 2-24-2021 76.43,76.76,75.63,78.85,78.36,77.85,77.93,81.16,82.51
Kansas City Financial Stress Index -0.24 on 1-2021 0.88,0.45,0.23,-0.05,0.08,0.23,0.25,-0.43,-0.24
Chicago National Financial Conditions Index -0.65002 on 2-19-2021 -0.62215,-0.61898,-0.61583,-0.6134,-0.61803,-0.6224,-0.63192,-0.64179,-0.65002
St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c) -0.07 on 3-13-2020 -1.561,-1.556,-1.462,-1.517,-1.604,-1.596,-1.215,-0.942,-0.07

Inflation Indicators

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) 1.4% change yoy on 1-2021 0.22,0.73,1.05,1.32,1.41,1.19,1.14,1.30,1.37
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) 1.4% change yoy on 1-2021 1.24,1.20,1.56,1.70,1.72,1.63,1.65,1.61,1.40
PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy) 1.5% change yoy on 1-2021 1.01,1.14,1.26,1.43,1.53,1.42,1.37,1.45,1.53
Median Consumer Price Index 0.98 on 1-2021 3.09,1.71,2.84,2.43,1.17,2.80,0.98,1.73,0.98
5yr5yr Inflation Expectations 1.91 on 2-26-2021 2.11,2.07,2.03,1.99,1.97,1.97,1.96,1.94,1.91


Note: Indicators are updated daily at 6:00 am Eastern time.
*Indicators rated as N/A may not themselves suggest changes in the business cycle, but should be monitored nonetheless.
Last Update on: 2-28-2021