Recessionary signal
Warning signal
Expansionary signal
N/A*
Leading Indicators
Leading Index for the United States
98.6
on 2-2023
99.8, 99.5, 99.3, 99.1, 98.9, 98.8, 98.7, 98.7, 98.6, 98.6
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
0.9
on 1-2023
0.1, 0.2, 0.1, 0.0, 0.1, 0.1, 0.4, 1.5, 1.4, 0.9
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
-0.2
on 2-2023
-0.3, -0.3, 0.3, 0.1, 0.0, -0.1, -0.6, -0.4, 0.2, -0.2
Employment Indicators
Civilian Unemployment Rate
-5.26316 percent change yoy
on 2-2023
-37.93103%, -38.98305%, -35.18519%, -28.84615%, -27.08333%, -17.77778%, -14.28571%, -10.25641%, -15.00000%, -5.26316
U-6 Unemployment Rate
-5.6 percent change yoy
on 2-2023
-29.7%, -31.6%, -26.1%, -20.5%, -21.2%, -18.3%, -13.0%, -11.0%, -7.0%, -5.6
Total Nonfarm Employment
311.0 change period over period
on 2-2023
364.0%, 370.0%, 568.0%, 352.0%, 350.0%, 324.0%, 290.0%, 239.0%, 504.0%, 311.0
4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims
8.6 percent change yoy
on 3/18/2023
-9.4%, -14.5%, -16.1%, -12.8%, -9.2%, -5.8%, -1.0%, 0.3%, 4.1%, 8.6
Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts)
1.6 percent change yoy
on 1-2023
0.9%, 0.4%, -0.2%, 0.5%, 1.0%, 0.9%, 0.6%, 0.7%, 1.0%, 1.6
Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees
-1.0 percent change yoy
on 2-2023
0.0%, 0.0%, -0.2%, -0.2%, -0.5%, 0.2%, -0.5%, -0.7%, 0.5%, -1.0
Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory)
5.3 percent change yoy
on 2-2023
6.7%, 6.7%, 6.6%, 6.2%, 5.9%, 5.7%, 5.7%, 5.4%, 5.2%, 5.3
Production Indicators
Industrial Production Index
-0.2 percent change yoy
on 2-2023
4.4%, 3.7%, 3.6%, 3.5%, 4.7%, 3.0%, 1.8%, 0.6%, 0.5%, -0.2
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries
13.4 percent change yoy
on 1-2023
17.2%, 14.8%, 17.8%, 8.2%, 13.4%, 21.8%, 16.1%, 13.9%, 11.9%, 13.4
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods
-3.5 percent change yoy
on 1-2023
12.6%, 11.3%, 7.6%, 15.8%, 7.3%, 16.4%, 15.7%, 4.1%, 23.3%, -3.5
Consumer Indicators
Real Person Consumption Expenditures
2.4 percent change yoy
on 1-2023
2.4%, 2.6%, 2.1%, 2.2%, 2.3%, 2.1%, 1.8%, 1.5%, 2.0%, 2.4
Real Retail and Food Services Sales
-0.6 percent change yoy
on 2-2023
0.2%, -0.1%, 1.5%, 1.4%, 0.2%, 0.2%, -1.1%, -0.2%, 1.3%, -0.6
Retail Sales: Total (ex food services)
4.0 percent change yoy
on 2-2023
7.5%, 8.2%, 10.0%, 9.3%, 7.8%, 7.2%, 5.0%, 5.0%, 5.5%, 4.0
Total Vehicle Sales
8.3 percent change yoy
on 2-2023
-24.1%, -14.2%, -8.4%, 1.9%, 10.9%, 15.5%, 9.7%, 5.3%, 5.3%, 8.3
Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores
-2.8 percent change yoy
on 2-2023
-5.9%, -11.5%, -10.8%, -7.9%, -9.9%, -13.4%, -8.4%, -10.9%, -1.6%, -2.8
Residential Construction Indicators
New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits
-16.5 percent change yoy
on 2-2023
0.2%, 2.1%, 1.8%, -13.0%, -3.2%, -11.0%, -21.9%, -29.5%, -27.3%, -16.5
Credit and Financial Indicators
Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo)
-1.4
on 3/23/2023
-1.3, -1.3, -1.2, -1.2, -1.2, -1.1, -1.3, -1.2, -1.3, -1.4
Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr)
-0.4
on 3/23/2023
-0.9, -0.5, -0.6, -0.4, -0.6, -0.4, -0.4, -0.6, -0.5, -0.4
M2 Money Stock
-1.7 percent change yoy
on 1-2023
7.7%, 6.1%, 5.6%, 5.0%, 3.9%, 2.7%, 1.4%, 0.3%, -1.1%, -1.7
All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets
-2.6 percent change yoy
on 3/22/2023
-4.3%, -4.4%, -5.0%, -5.0%, -5.9%, -6.1%, -6.3%, -6.4%, -3.5%, -2.6
Kansas City Financial Stress Index
-0.4
on 2-2023
0.0, 0.0, 0.1, -0.2, 0.1, 0.5, -0.0, -0.1, -0.1, -0.4
Chicago National Financial Conditions Index
-0.2
on 3/17/2023
-0.3, -0.3, -0.3, -0.3, -0.3, -0.3, -0.3, -0.3, -0.3, -0.2
Inflation Indicators
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items)
6.0 percent change yoy
on 2-2023
8.5%, 8.9%, 8.4%, 8.2%, 8.2%, 7.8%, 7.1%, 6.4%, 6.3%, 6.0
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy)
5.5 percent change yoy
on 2-2023
6.0%, 5.9%, 5.9%, 6.3%, 6.6%, 6.3%, 6.0%, 5.7%, 5.5%, 5.5
PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy)
4.7 percent change yoy
on 1-2023
5.0%, 4.9%, 5.0%, 4.7%, 4.9%, 5.2%, 5.1%, 4.8%, 4.6%, 4.7