Recessionary signal
Warning signal
Expansionary signal
N/A*
Leading Indicators
Employment Indicators
Civilian Unemployment Rate
-37.5% change yoy
on 1-2022
-56.06,-46.36,-47.06,-38.10,-40.51,-33.33,-37.31,-41.79,-37.50
U-6 Unemployment Rate
-36.0% change yoy
on 1-2022
-52.36,-45.56,-44.24,-38.46,-33.59,-32.23,-35.83,-37.61,-36.04
4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims
-70.4% change yoy
on 2-05-2022
-74.62,-74.57,-75.73,-74.60,-74.04,-72.17,-70.97,-70.52,-70.40
Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts)
1.6% change yoy
on 12-2021
8.49,6.88,5.42,4.77,3.59,2.74,1.50,1.63,1.58
Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees
-0.7% change yoy
on 1-2022
4.39,3.07,2.02,1.00,0.50,-0.49,0.00,0.50,-0.74
Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory)
6.9% change yoy
on 1-2022
2.76,4.11,5.10,5.20,5.89,6.36,6.54,6.24,6.91
Production Indicators
Industrial Production Index
4.1% change yoy
on 1-2022
16.40,10.21,6.62,5.42,4.44,4.75,5.12,3.80,4.08
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries
-4.0% change yoy
on 12-2021
153.43,101.85,5.87,-9.76,-8.99,-12.13,-5.25,-5.07,-3.95
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods
10.8% change yoy
on 5-2022
16.46,14.76,24.54,21.95,30.29,16.35,13.52,12.62,10.83
Consumer Indicators
Real Person Consumption Expenditures
7.1% change yoy
on 12-2021
25.42,15.07,9.35,7.46,7.50,6.38,6.88,7.23,7.12
Real Retail and Food Services Sales
5.1% change yoy
on 1-2022
22.01,12.83,9.54,9.96,8.32,9.42,11.30,8.97,5.05
Retail Sales: Total (ex food services)
11.4% change yoy
on 1-2022
23.87,16.54,12.86,13.83,12.33,14.70,16.95,14.02,11.42
Total Vehicle Sales
-9.9% change yoy
on 1-2022
39.83,18.60,0.10,-13.87,-24.01,-19.97,-17.53,-22.42,-9.95
Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores
-2.9% change yoy
on 1-2022
92.60,43.12,21.70,16.39,18.23,18.67,9.30,11.20,-2.88
Residential Construction Indicators
New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits
7.2% change yoy
on 12-2021
58.41,35.07,22.99,5.71,13.07,-0.19,3.64,1.24,7.22
Nonperforming Total Loans (past due 90+ days plus nonaccrual) to Total Loans
1.06
on 7-2020
0.98,0.95,0.95,0.89,0.87,0.85,0.87,1.0,1.06
Credit and Financial Indicators
All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets
19.3% change yoy
on 2-09-2022
18.93,18.73,18.93,19.51,19.83,19.59,19.66,19.74,19.29
Kansas City Financial Stress Index
-0.36
on 1-2022
-0.77,-0.72,-0.61,-0.67,-0.64,-0.62,-0.69,-0.48,-0.36
Chicago National Financial Conditions Index
-0.20212
on 5-20-2022
-0.37529,-0.36787,-0.35911,-0.34498,-0.31829,-0.28683,-0.25751,-0.22865,-0.20212
St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c)
-0.07
on 3-13-2020
-1.561,-1.556,-1.462,-1.517,-1.604,-1.596,-1.215,-0.942,-0.07
Inflation Indicators
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items)
7.5% change yoy
on 1-2022
4.94,5.34,5.28,5.21,5.39,6.24,6.83,7.10,7.53
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy)
6.0% change yoy
on 1-2022
3.81,4.45,4.20,3.96,4.04,4.59,4.95,5.48,6.04
PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy)
4.9% change yoy
on 12-2021
3.08,3.46,3.59,3.60,3.60,3.70,4.16,4.66,4.85