Indicators | Last Recession

Recessionary signal Warning signal Expansionary signal N/A*

Leading Indicators

Leading Index for the United States 99.9 on 1-2024 99.0, 99.1, 99.2, 99.3, 99.4, 99.5, 99.5, 99.6, 99.7, 99.9

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 1.5 on 2-2024 0.2, 0.2, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.3, 0.2, 0.5, 1.4, 1.5

Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.0 on 2-2024 -0.2, -0.4, 0.2, -0.2, 0.0, -0.6, 0.2, -0.0, -0.5, 0.0

Employment Indicators

Civilian Unemployment Rate 8.6 percent change yoy on 3-2024 0.0, 0.0, 5.6, 8.6, 5.6, 2.8, 5.7, 8.8, 8.3, 8.6

U-6 Unemployment Rate 9.0 percent change yoy on 3-2024 3.0, -1.5, 1.4, 4.5, 7.5, 4.5, 9.2, 7.5, 7.4, 9.0

Total Nonfarm Employment 303.0 change period over period on 3-2024 240.0, 184.0, 210.0, 246.0, 165.0, 182.0, 290.0, 256.0, 270.0, 303.0

4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims -3.8 percent change yoy on 4/13/2024 4.6, 0.5, -2.0, -3.8, -4.1, -4.2, -6.8, -4.3, -4.2, -3.8

Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts) 2.4 percent change yoy on 2-2024 2.1, 2.6, 2.0, 1.9, 1.8, 2.3, 3.0, 3.2, 2.8, 2.4

Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees -0.5 percent change yoy on 3-2024 -0.5, -0.7, -0.7, -0.5, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -1.7, -0.7, -0.5

Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) 4.2 percent change yoy on 3-2024 5.0, 5.0, 4.8, 4.7, 4.6, 4.6, 4.5, 4.7, 4.6, 4.2

Production Indicators

Industrial Production Index -0.0 percent change yoy on 3-2024 -0.4, 0.1, -0.1, -0.2, -0.8, -0.1, 1.1, -0.7, -0.3, -0.0

Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries 0.7 percent change yoy on 2-2024 6.0, 3.5, 7.5, 6.3, -1.9, -5.4, -0.9, -2.3, -2.7, 0.7

Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods 8.6 percent change yoy on 2-2024 10.9, 29.1, 4.9, 5.4, 18.6, -0.6, 32.2, 13.7, -4.3, 8.6

Consumer Indicators

Real Person Consumption Expenditures 2.4 percent change yoy on 2-2024 1.8, 2.1, 2.5, 2.0, 2.1, 2.1, 2.9, 3.3, 2.0, 2.4

Real Retail and Food Services Sales 0.5 percent change yoy on 3-2024 -1.5, -0.5, -0.9, 0.3, -1.0, 0.4, 1.6, -2.8, -1.0, 0.5

Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) 3.6 percent change yoy on 3-2024 0.4, 1.6, 2.0, 3.1, 1.3, 2.6, 4.2, -0.2, 1.5, 3.6

Total Vehicle Sales 3.4 percent change yoy on 3-2024 20.8, 17.7, 13.1, 14.7, 5.0, 8.3, 18.0, -1.5, 5.3, 3.4

Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores -0.6 percent change yoy on 3-2024 -0.3, -3.5, -0.7, -0.9, 1.0, 6.2, 5.4, -1.2, 1.2, -0.6

Residential Construction Indicators

New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits 1.5 percent change yoy on 3-2024 -15.3, -13.0, -2.8, -7.4, -3.7, 4.6, 6.0, 10.0, 2.8, 1.5

Nonperforming Total Loans (past due 90+ days plus nonaccrual) to Total Loans 1.1 on 7/01/2020 1.1

Credit and Financial Indicators

10-Year US Treasury 4.6 on 4/17/2024 4.3, 4.4, 4.4, 4.4, 4.6, 4.6, 4.5, 4.6, 4.7, 4.6

Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) -0.8 on 4/18/2024 -1.0, -1.0, -1.1, -0.9, -0.9, -1.0, -0.8, -0.8, -0.9, -0.8

Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) -0.3 on 4/18/2024 -0.3, -0.4, -0.4, -0.4, -0.4, -0.4, -0.3, -0.3, -0.3, -0.3

M2 Money Stock -1.7 percent change yoy on 2-2024 -4.0, -3.8, -3.9, -4.0, -3.7, -3.5, -3.1, -2.4, -2.0, -1.7

All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets -13.8 percent change yoy on 4/17/2024 -9.0, -9.6, -9.3, -9.6, -12.7, -14.0, -14.0, -13.8, -13.7, -13.8

Kansas City Financial Stress Index -0.5 on 3-2024 0.1, 0.2, -0.3, -0.4, -0.0, -0.3, -0.4, -0.4, -0.5, -0.5

Chicago National Financial Conditions Index -0.5 on 4/12/2024 -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5

St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c) -0.8 on 4/12/2024 -0.6, -0.7, -0.7, -0.8, -0.8, -0.9, -0.9, -0.9, -0.9, -0.8

Inflation Indicators

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) 3.5 percent change yoy on 3-2024 3.1, 3.3, 3.7, 3.7, 3.2, 3.1, 3.3, 3.1, 3.2, 3.5

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) 3.8 percent change yoy on 3-2024 4.9, 4.7, 4.4, 4.1, 4.0, 4.0, 3.9, 3.9, 3.8, 3.8

PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy) 2.8 percent change yoy on 2-2024 4.7, 4.3, 4.2, 3.7, 3.6, 3.4, 3.2, 2.9, 2.9, 2.8

Median Consumer Price Index 4.3 on 3-2024 4.4, 2.5, 4.4, 5.2, 3.5, 5.1, 4.2, 6.5, 4.6, 4.3

5yr5yr Inflation Expectations 2.4 on 4/18/2024 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.4

Note: Indicators are updated daily at 6:00 am Eastern time.
*Indicators rated as N/A may not themselves suggest changes in the business cycle, but should be monitored nonetheless.