Recessionary signal   Warning signal   Expansionary signal   N/A*  

Leading Indicators

Leading Index for the United States 1.72 on 2-2020 1.11,1.30,1.32,1.50,1.41,1.38,1.48,1.57,1.72
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 38.98 on 6-2020 1.10,1.00,12.50,23.35,54.45,100.00,100.00,38.98,38.98
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 4.11 on 6-2020 -0.46,0.32,-0.24,-0.10,0.03,-4.50,-18.09,3.50,4.11

Employment Indicators

Civilian Unemployment Rate 200.0% change yoy on 6-2020 -5.26,-5.41,-10.26,-10.00,-7.89,15.79,308.33,269.44,200.00
U-6 Unemployment Rate 150.0% change yoy on 6-2020 -8.00,-10.53,-11.84,-13.75,-2.78,17.57,212.33,194.44,150.00
Total Nonfarm Employment 4800 change MoM on 6-2020 185,261,184,214,251,-1373,-20787,2699,4800
4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims 540.2% change yoy on 7-25-2020 954.49,822.16,712.54,634.43,577.51,555.25,530.21,532.75,540.23
Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts) -3.6% change yoy on 6-2020 1.75,2.14,0.86,1.66,2.19,-0.38,-6.29,-4.92,-3.61
Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees -3.4% change yoy on 6-2020 -1.23,-0.98,-1.22,-0.98,0.00,-0.74,-6.40,-4.68,-3.45
Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) 5.4% change yoy on 6-2020 3.76,3.52,3.25,3.33,3.32,3.52,7.67,6.62,5.41

Production Indicators

Industrial Production Index -10.8% change yoy on 6-2020 -0.81,-0.42,-0.81,-0.85,-0.22,-4.76,-16.32,-15.36,-10.82
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries -15.5% change yoy on 6-2020 -4.54,-3.80,-6.18,-7.86,-3.66,-25.42,-65.39,-56.48,-15.51
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods -24.6% change yoy on 6-2020 -4.41,-5.45,-18.57,-11.40,-1.90,-39.91,-30.34,-6.53,-24.65

Consumer Indicators

Real Person Consumption Expenditures -5.5% change yoy on 6-2020 2.30,2.06,3.02,2.69,2.61,-4.69,-16.69,-9.96,-5.54
Real Retail and Food Services Sales 0.4% change yoy on 6-2020 1.52,1.19,3.25,2.33,2.11,-7.00,-20.17,-5.87,0.39
Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) 5.0% change yoy on 6-2020 3.08,3.10,5.63,4.66,4.40,-2.60,-15.33,-1.10,4.98
Total Vehicle Sales -24.5% change yoy on 6-2020 -4.80,-2.28,-3.68,0.03,0.68,-33.77,-47.02,-30.02,-24.49
Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores -12.7% change yoy on 6-2020 -2.71,-2.33,-0.43,0.16,0.30,-18.06,-53.27,-36.69,-12.66

Residential Construction Indicators

New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits -1.2% change yoy on 6-2020 18.63,14.48,9.22,16.72,10.19,2.19,-19.85,-9.12,-1.18
Nonperforming Total Loans (past due 90+ days plus nonaccrual) to Total Loans 0.87 on 1-2020 1.11,1.02,0.98,0.95,0.95,0.89,0.87,0.85,0.87

Credit and Financial Indicators

10-Year Treasury 0.52% on 8-04-2020 0.59,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.52
Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) 0.43% on 8-04-2020 0.32,0.33,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.27
Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) 0.41% on 8-04-2020 0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.41
M2 Money Stock 23.2% change yoy on 7-20-2020 22.06,22.04,22.44,22.74,23.24,22.94,23.54,24.00,23.19
All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets 83.9% change yoy on 7-29-2020 86.22,86.21,84.56,85.07,83.81,81.41,82.73,83.12,83.88
Kansas City Financial Stress Index 0.45 on 6-2020 -0.41,-0.64,-0.65,-0.59,-0.42,2.10,1.66,0.88,0.45
Chicago National Financial Conditions Index -0.5 on 7-24-2020 -0.29,-0.32,-0.34,-0.35,-0.37,-0.39,-0.42,-0.46,-0.5
St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c) -0.07 on 3-13-2020 -1.561,-1.556,-1.462,-1.517,-1.604,-1.596,-1.215,-0.942,-0.07

Inflation Indicators

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) 0.7% change yoy on 6-2020 1.76,2.04,2.29,2.48,2.32,1.52,0.38,0.24,0.71
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) 1.2% change yoy on 6-2020 2.31,2.32,2.25,2.27,2.37,2.10,1.44,1.24,1.19
PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy) 0.9% change yoy on 6-2020 1.74,1.58,1.62,1.75,1.87,1.65,0.93,0.96,0.95
Median Consumer Price Index 1.41 on 6-2020 2.49,2.97,1.98,3.70,2.71,2.50,1.76,3.25,1.41
5yr5yr Inflation Expectations 1.69 on 8-04-2020 1.61,1.67,1.66,1.66,1.68,1.67,1.7,1.7,1.69


Note: Indicators are updated daily at 6:00 am Eastern time.
*Indicators rated as N/A may not themselves suggest changes in the business cycle, but should be monitored nonetheless.
Last Update on: 8-05-2020