Recessionary signal   Warning signal   Expansionary signal   N/A*  

Leading Indicators

Leading Index for the United States 99.9 on 1-2024 99.0, 99.1, 99.2, 99.3, 99.4, 99.5, 99.5, 99.6, 99.7, 99.9
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 0.1 on 12-2024 0.3, 0.2, 0.1, 0.0, 0.2, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2, 0.1, 0.1
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.2 on 12-2024 -0.2, -0.4, 0.2, -0.1, -0.3, -0.0, -0.2, -0.5, -0.0, 0.2

Employment Indicators

Civilian Unemployment Rate 8.1 percent change yoy on 1-2025 14.7, 11.1, 13.9, 20.0, 13.5, 7.9, 5.1, 13.5, 7.9, 8.1
U-6 Unemployment Rate 4.2 percent change yoy on 1-2025 12.1, 10.4, 7.2, 16.4, 9.9, 10.0, 6.9, 10.0, 4.2, 4.2
Total Nonfarm Employment 143.0 change period over period on 1-2025 118.0, 193.0, 87.0, 88.0, 71.0, 240.0, 44.0, 261.0, 307.0, 143.0
4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims -0.7 percent change yoy on 2/08/2025 5.9, 7.3, 7.8, 8.5, 4.7, 6.0, 5.3, 1.6, 1.8, -0.7
Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts) 2.0 percent change yoy on 12-2024 3.3, 2.9, 2.9, 2.8, 2.6, 2.5, 2.4, 2.4, 2.1, 2.0
Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees 0.3 percent change yoy on 1-2025 0.0, 0.2, 0.5, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, -0.2, 0.5, 0.5, 0.3
Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) 4.2 percent change yoy on 1-2025 4.0, 4.1, 4.1, 4.0, 4.2, 4.2, 4.2, 4.1, 4.1, 4.2

Production Indicators

Industrial Production Index 0.5 percent change yoy on 12-2024 -0.3, -0.8, -0.0, 0.9, -0.5, -0.1, -0.7, -0.5, -0.6, 0.5
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries 0.7 percent change yoy on 12-2024 3.3, 6.6, 4.1, 3.1, -2.4, -1.6, 1.4, 8.9, 1.3, 0.7
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods -18.3 percent change yoy on 12-2024 1.0, -4.5, -8.6, -34.9, 1.6, -0.8, -12.2, 1.7, -21.1, -18.3

Consumer Indicators

Real Person Consumption Expenditures 3.1 percent change yoy on 12-2024 2.7, 2.4, 2.8, 2.9, 2.8, 2.9, 3.2, 3.2, 3.2, 3.1
Real Retail and Food Services Sales 1.0 percent change yoy on 12-2024 0.2, -0.6, -0.6, -1.0, -0.0, -0.6, -0.4, 0.4, 1.4, 1.0
Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) 4.2 percent change yoy on 12-2024 3.3, 2.3, 2.2, 1.7, 2.8, 1.7, 1.8, 2.8, 4.3, 4.2
Total Vehicle Sales 3.9 percent change yoy on 1-2025 0.5, 2.3, -6.1, 0.3, -1.7, 0.5, 4.9, 7.6, 5.7, 3.9
Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores 5.8 percent change yoy on 12-2024 -2.3, 2.5, 2.9, 0.6, 3.4, -0.1, -4.8, -1.6, 2.1, 5.8

Residential Construction Indicators

New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits -3.1 percent change yoy on 12-2024 -0.5, -2.0, -8.7, -2.6, -6.3, -6.8, -5.9, -7.5, -1.0, -3.1

Credit and Financial Indicators

10-Year US Treasury 4.6 on 2/12/2025 4.5, 4.6, 4.5, 4.5, 4.4, 4.4, 4.5, 4.5, 4.5, 4.6
Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) 0.2 on 2/13/2025 0.3, 0.2, 0.2, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2, 0.3, 0.2
Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) 0.2 on 2/13/2025 0.4, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.3, 0.2
M2 Money Stock 3.9 percent change yoy on 12-2024 -0.0, 0.8, 0.7, 1.1, 1.3, 2.0, 2.6, 3.1, 3.7, 3.9
All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets -10.7 percent change yoy on 2/12/2025 -10.9, -10.8, -10.7, -10.8, -10.8, -10.9, -11.0, -10.6, -10.8, -10.7
Kansas City Financial Stress Index -0.8 on 1-2025 -0.5, -0.7, -0.7, -0.3, -0.4, -0.5, -0.4, -0.4, -0.8, -0.8
Chicago National Financial Conditions Index -0.6 on 2/07/2025 -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6
St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c) -0.8 on 2/07/2025 -0.5, -0.6, -0.5, -0.6, -0.6, -0.8, -0.8, -1.0, -0.8, -0.8

Inflation Indicators

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) 3.0 percent change yoy on 1-2025 3.4, 3.2, 3.0, 2.9, 2.6, 2.4, 2.6, 2.7, 2.9, 3.0
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) 3.3 percent change yoy on 1-2025 3.6, 3.4, 3.3, 3.2, 3.3, 3.3, 3.3, 3.3, 3.2, 3.3
PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy) 2.8 percent change yoy on 12-2024 3.0, 2.9, 2.7, 2.6, 2.7, 2.7, 2.7, 2.8, 2.8, 2.8
Median Consumer Price Index 3.9 on 1-2025 4.3, 2.8, 2.5, 2.6, 3.7, 4.1, 3.7, 3.2, 3.2, 3.9
5yr5yr Inflation Expectations 2.2 on 2/13/2025 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.2, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.2


Note: Indicators are updated daily at 6:00 am Eastern time.
*Indicators rated as N/A may not themselves suggest changes in the business cycle, but should be monitored nonetheless.
Last Update on: 02/14/2025