Recessionary signal   Warning signal   Expansionary signal   N/A*  

Leading Indicators

Leading Index for the United States 1.72 on 2-2020 1.11,1.30,1.32,1.50,1.41,1.38,1.48,1.57,1.72
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 0.06 on 2-2021 0.04,0.06,0.00,0.12,0.06,0.28,0.12,0.02,0.06
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -1.09 on 2-2021 6.00,2.63,1.21,0.44,1.00,0.36,0.28,0.75,-1.09

Employment Indicators

Civilian Unemployment Rate 36.4% change yoy on 3-2021 183.33,127.03,122.86,91.67,86.11,86.11,80.00,77.14,36.36
U-6 Unemployment Rate 21.6% change yoy on 3-2021 139.13,97.22,85.51,72.86,73.91,72.06,60.87,58.57,21.59
Total Nonfarm Employment 916 change MoM on 3-2021 1726,1583,716,680,264,-306,233,468,916
4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims -86.3% change yoy on 4-10-2021 304.18,289.82,275.93,258.77,233.37,-19.10,-69.22,-80.92,-86.29
Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts) -2.5% change yoy on 2-2021 -2.86,-1.65,-1.09,-0.28,0.31,-0.93,-0.90,-1.92,-2.48
Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees 0.5% change yoy on 3-2021 -1.49,-0.99,-0.49,0.25,-0.49,-0.99,0.00,-0.98,0.50
Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) 4.4% change yoy on 3-2021 4.80,4.95,4.64,4.46,4.70,5.49,5.28,5.13,4.39

Production Indicators

Industrial Production Index 1.0% change yoy on 3-2021 -6.58,-6.34,-6.09,-4.71,-4.73,-3.42,-2.11,-4.77,1.02
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries -3.7% change yoy on 2-2021 -15.40,7.19,2.59,4.34,3.32,6.02,9.70,10.70,-3.73
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods 11.3% change yoy on 2-2021 -23.91,-19.10,-10.17,3.05,1.04,4.61,12.09,7.16,11.35

Consumer Indicators

Real Person Consumption Expenditures -2.1% change yoy on 2-2021 -4.58,-3.61,-2.94,-1.95,-1.86,-2.58,-3.52,-1.00,-2.11
Real Retail and Food Services Sales 24.4% change yoy on 3-2021 1.64,2.25,4.62,4.19,2.62,0.96,8.11,4.90,24.44
Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) 26.9% change yoy on 3-2021 5.81,6.33,9.00,8.24,6.65,5.62,13.03,9.85,26.87
Total Vehicle Sales 54.9% change yoy on 3-2021 -14.44,-11.74,-5.20,-2.57,-7.19,-3.53,-0.34,-5.86,54.88
Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores 28.5% change yoy on 3-2021 -6.01,-4.14,-7.26,-4.36,-9.53,-15.97,-2.82,-4.06,28.47

Residential Construction Indicators

New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits 19.6% change yoy on 2-2021 -1.18,8.57,0.34,7.52,2.73,8.28,16.95,22.79,19.61
Nonperforming Total Loans (past due 90+ days plus nonaccrual) to Total Loans 1.06 on 7-2020 0.98,0.95,0.95,0.89,0.87,0.85,0.87,1.0,1.06

Credit and Financial Indicators

10-Year Treasury 1.56% on 4-15-2021 1.73,1.67,1.68,1.64,1.67,1.69,1.64,1.64,1.56
Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) 1.54% on 4-15-2021 1.37,1.32,1.32,1.29,1.31,1.33,1.26,1.29,1.22
Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) 1.4% on 4-15-2021 1.56,1.51,1.52,1.5,1.51,1.51,1.48,1.48,1.4
M2 Money Stock 25.7% change yoy on 2-01-2021 25.29,25.27,24.53,23.66,24.30,26.43,26.12,25.62,25.74
All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets 22.4% change yoy on 4-14-2021 81.16,82.51,78.18,75.79,64.81,46.92,32.30,26.73,22.38
Kansas City Financial Stress Index -0.33 on 3-2021 0.23,-0.05,0.08,0.23,0.24,-0.43,-0.26,-0.44,-0.33
Chicago National Financial Conditions Index -0.6747 on 4-09-2021 -0.63476,-0.63659,-0.63794,-0.64042,-0.64408,-0.65035,-0.65635,-0.66434,-0.6747
St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c) -0.07 on 3-13-2020 -1.561,-1.556,-1.462,-1.517,-1.604,-1.596,-1.215,-0.942,-0.07

Inflation Indicators

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) 2.6% change yoy on 3-2021 1.05,1.32,1.41,1.19,1.14,1.30,1.37,1.68,2.64
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) 1.6% change yoy on 3-2021 1.56,1.70,1.72,1.63,1.65,1.61,1.40,1.28,1.65
PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy) 1.4% change yoy on 2-2021 1.14,1.26,1.43,1.53,1.40,1.34,1.41,1.48,1.41
Median Consumer Price Index 1.83 on 3-2021 2.84,2.43,1.17,2.80,0.98,1.73,0.98,2.84,1.83
5yr5yr Inflation Expectations 2.11 on 4-15-2021 2.15,2.12,2.15,2.11,2.11,2.14,2.12,2.1,2.11


Note: Indicators are updated daily at 6:00 am Eastern time.
*Indicators rated as N/A may not themselves suggest changes in the business cycle, but should be monitored nonetheless.
Last Update on: 4-16-2021