Recessionary signal   Warning signal   Expansionary signal   N/A*  

Leading Indicators

Leading Index for the United States 1.72 on 2-2020 1.11,1.30,1.32,1.50,1.41,1.38,1.48,1.57,1.72
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 34.38 on 5-2020 0.57,0.80,0.60,11.68,24.05,55.30,100.00,100.00,34.38
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 2.61 on 5-2020 -0.33,-0.47,0.34,-0.24,-0.10,0.06,-4.67,-17.89,2.61

Employment Indicators

Civilian Unemployment Rate 200.0% change yoy on 6-2020 -5.26,-5.41,-10.26,-10.00,-7.89,15.79,308.33,269.44,200.00
U-6 Unemployment Rate 150.0% change yoy on 6-2020 -8.00,-10.53,-11.84,-13.75,-2.78,17.57,212.33,194.44,150.00
Total Nonfarm Employment 4800 change MoM on 6-2020 185,261,184,214,251,-1373,-20787,2699,4800
4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims 556.3% change yoy on 7-04-2020 1478.17,1275.82,1094.96,954.49,822.16,712.54,634.43,578.08,556.28
Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts) -6.0% change yoy on 5-2020 2.35,2.25,2.66,1.64,2.04,2.00,-1.21,-7.25,-5.96
Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees -3.4% change yoy on 6-2020 -1.23,-0.98,-1.22,-0.98,0.00,-0.74,-6.40,-4.68,-3.45
Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) 5.4% change yoy on 6-2020 3.76,3.52,3.25,3.33,3.32,3.52,7.67,6.62,5.41

Production Indicators

Industrial Production Index -15.3% change yoy on 5-2020 -0.18,-0.81,-0.42,-0.81,-0.82,-0.18,-4.86,-16.25,-15.27
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries -56.7% change yoy on 5-2020 -0.54,-4.54,-3.80,-6.18,-7.86,-3.66,-25.42,-65.39,-56.72
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods -6.5% change yoy on 5-2020 -10.94,-4.41,-5.45,-18.57,-11.40,-1.90,-39.91,-30.34,-6.46

Consumer Indicators

Real Person Consumption Expenditures -9.8% change yoy on 5-2020 2.67,2.34,2.32,3.32,2.96,3.06,-4.26,-16.26,-9.81
Real Retail and Food Services Sales -6.3% change yoy on 5-2020 2.20,1.52,1.19,3.25,2.33,2.11,-7.00,-20.20,-6.30
Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) -1.4% change yoy on 5-2020 3.68,3.08,3.10,5.63,4.66,4.40,-2.60,-15.34,-1.40
Total Vehicle Sales -24.6% change yoy on 6-2020 -5.29,-2.42,-4.28,0.73,1.04,-33.73,-46.91,-29.60,-24.59
Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores -29.9% change yoy on 5-2020 -1.62,-2.71,-2.33,-0.43,0.16,0.30,-18.06,-53.07,-29.90

Residential Construction Indicators

New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits -9.1% change yoy on 5-2020 11.40,18.63,14.48,9.22,16.72,10.19,2.19,-19.85,-9.12
Nonperforming Total Loans (past due 90+ days plus nonaccrual) to Total Loans 0.87 on 1-2020 1.11,1.02,0.98,0.95,0.95,0.89,0.87,0.85,0.87

Credit and Financial Indicators

10-Year Treasury 0.64% on 7-13-2020 0.66,0.69,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.62,0.65,0.64
Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) 0.5% on 7-13-2020 0.33,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.34
Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) 0.48% on 7-13-2020 0.5,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48
M2 Money Stock 24.2% change yoy on 6-29-2020 21.64,23.12,23.41,23.27,23.27,23.71,24.04,24.55,24.24
All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets 81.4% change yoy on 7-08-2020 79.42,82.29,84.28,86.22,86.21,84.56,85.07,83.81,81.41
Kansas City Financial Stress Index 0.45 on 6-2020 -0.41,-0.64,-0.65,-0.59,-0.42,2.10,1.66,0.88,0.45
Chicago National Financial Conditions Index -0.39 on 7-03-2020 -0.06,-0.15,-0.24,-0.29,-0.33,-0.35,-0.36,-0.37,-0.39
St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c) -0.07 on 3-13-2020 -1.561,-1.556,-1.462,-1.517,-1.604,-1.596,-1.215,-0.942,-0.07

Inflation Indicators

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) 0.2% change yoy on 5-2020 1.72,1.76,2.04,2.29,2.48,2.32,1.52,0.38,0.24
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) 1.2% change yoy on 5-2020 2.35,2.31,2.32,2.25,2.27,2.37,2.10,1.44,1.24
PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy) 1.0% change yoy on 5-2020 1.66,1.65,1.51,1.57,1.69,1.82,1.69,1.04,1.02
Median Consumer Price Index 3.25 on 5-2020 2.85,2.49,2.97,1.98,3.70,2.71,2.50,1.76,3.25
5yr5yr Inflation Expectations 1.57 on 7-13-2020 1.52,1.57,1.61,1.62,1.6,1.59,1.56,1.57,1.57


Note: Indicators are updated daily at 6:00 am Eastern time.
*Indicators rated as N/A may not themselves suggest changes in the business cycle, but should be monitored nonetheless.
Last Update on: 7-14-2020