Recessionary signal   Warning signal   Expansionary signal   N/A*  

Leading Indicators

Leading Index for the United States 99.7 on 12-2023 99.0, 99.0, 99.1, 99.2, 99.3, 99.4, 99.5, 99.6, 99.6, 99.7
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 0.7 on 12-2023 0.3, 0.2, 0.4, 0.4, 0.1, 0.2, 0.1, 0.7, 0.4, 0.7
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.3 on 1-2024 0.1, -0.2, -0.4, 0.2, -0.2, -0.0, -0.6, 0.2, 0.0, -0.3

Employment Indicators

Civilian Unemployment Rate 8.8 percent change yoy on 1-2024 -8.1, 2.8, 0.0, 0.0, 5.6, 8.6, 5.6, 2.8, 5.7, 8.8
U-6 Unemployment Rate 7.5 percent change yoy on 1-2024 -7.0, -4.2, 3.0, -1.5, 1.4, 4.5, 7.5, 4.5, 9.2, 7.5
Total Nonfarm Employment 353.0 change period over period on 1-2024 278.0, 303.0, 240.0, 184.0, 210.0, 246.0, 165.0, 182.0, 333.0, 353.0
4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims 1.1 percent change yoy on 2/17/2024 0.2, 0.4, -0.6, -0.5, -1.1, 0.6, 4.5, 4.7, 5.5, 1.1
Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts) 3.1 percent change yoy on 12-2023 1.8, 1.8, 2.1, 2.6, 1.9, 1.8, 1.6, 2.2, 3.0, 3.1
Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees -1.7 percent change yoy on 1-2024 -1.0, -0.7, -0.5, -0.7, -0.7, -0.5, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -1.7
Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) 4.8 percent change yoy on 1-2024 5.2, 5.1, 5.0, 5.0, 4.8, 4.7, 4.6, 4.6, 4.6, 4.8

Production Indicators

Industrial Production Index 0.0 percent change yoy on 1-2024 0.3, 0.1, -0.4, 0.1, -0.1, -0.3, -1.0, -0.4, 1.2, 0.0
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries -2.0 percent change yoy on 12-2023 5.0, 3.2, 6.0, 3.5, 7.5, 6.3, -1.9, -5.4, -0.9, -2.0
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods 14.1 percent change yoy on 12-2023 6.4, 4.7, 10.9, 29.1, 4.9, 5.4, 18.6, -0.6, 32.2, 14.1

Consumer Indicators

Real Person Consumption Expenditures 3.2 percent change yoy on 12-2023 1.7, 1.6, 1.8, 2.1, 2.5, 2.0, 2.1, 1.9, 2.7, 3.2
Real Retail and Food Services Sales -2.4 percent change yoy on 1-2024 -3.5, -1.9, -1.5, -0.5, -0.9, 0.3, -1.0, 0.4, 1.9, -2.4
Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) -0.2 percent change yoy on 1-2024 0.2, 1.0, 0.4, 1.6, 2.0, 3.1, 1.3, 2.6, 4.5, -0.2
Total Vehicle Sales -0.8 percent change yoy on 1-2024 11.9, 20.0, 20.8, 17.7, 13.1, 14.7, 5.0, 8.3, 18.0, -0.8
Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores -5.8 percent change yoy on 1-2024 -8.6, -3.6, -0.3, -3.5, -0.7, -0.9, 1.0, 6.2, 4.2, -5.8

Residential Construction Indicators

New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits 8.6 percent change yoy on 1-2024 -21.1, -12.4, -15.3, -13.0, -2.8, -7.4, -3.7, 4.6, 6.0, 8.6

Credit and Financial Indicators

10-Year US Treasury 4.3 on 2/22/2024 4.2, 4.2, 4.2, 4.3, 4.3, 4.2, 4.3, 4.3, 4.3, 4.3
Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) -1.2 on 2/23/2024 -1.3, -1.3, -1.1, -1.2, -1.2, -1.1, -1.2, -1.1, -1.1, -1.2
Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) -0.4 on 2/23/2024 -0.3, -0.3, -0.3, -0.3, -0.3, -0.3, -0.3, -0.3, -0.4, -0.4
M2 Money Stock -2.3 percent change yoy on 12-2023 -3.8, -4.5, -3.9, -3.7, -3.9, -3.9, -3.6, -3.3, -3.0, -2.3
All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets -9.6 percent change yoy on 2/21/2024 -9.8, -9.8, -9.7, -9.7, -9.6, -9.4, -9.5, -9.5, -9.0, -9.6
Kansas City Financial Stress Index -0.4 on 1-2024 0.2, 0.3, 0.1, 0.2, -0.3, -0.4, -0.0, -0.3, -0.4, -0.4
Chicago National Financial Conditions Index -0.5 on 2/16/2024 -0.4, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5
St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c) -0.8 on 2/16/2024 -0.5, -0.4, -0.4, -0.6, -0.7, -0.8, -0.8, -0.7, -0.8, -0.8

Inflation Indicators

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) 3.1 percent change yoy on 1-2024 4.9, 4.1, 3.1, 3.3, 3.7, 3.7, 3.2, 3.1, 3.3, 3.1
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) 3.9 percent change yoy on 1-2024 5.5, 5.3, 4.9, 4.7, 4.4, 4.1, 4.0, 4.0, 3.9, 3.9
PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy) 2.9 percent change yoy on 12-2023 4.8, 4.8, 4.7, 4.3, 4.2, 3.7, 3.6, 3.4, 3.2, 2.9
Median Consumer Price Index 6.5 on 1-2024 5.2, 4.8, 4.4, 2.5, 4.4, 5.2, 3.5, 5.1, 4.2, 6.5
5yr5yr Inflation Expectations 2.3 on 2/23/2024 2.2, 2.2, 2.2, 2.3, 2.2, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.2, 2.3


Note: Indicators are updated daily at 6:00 am Eastern time.
*Indicators rated as N/A may not themselves suggest changes in the business cycle, but should be monitored nonetheless.
Last Update on: 02/25/2024