Recessionary signal   Warning signal   Expansionary signal   N/A*  

Leading Indicators

Leading Index for the United States 1.72 on 2-2020 1.11,1.30,1.32,1.50,1.41,1.38,1.48,1.57,1.72
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 0.10 on 7-2021 0.10,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.00,1.42,0.32,0.12,0.10
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.29 on 8-2021 0.30,1.16,-1.67,2.37,-0.13,0.10,0.24,0.75,0.29

Employment Indicators

Civilian Unemployment Rate -38.1% change yoy on 8-2021 86.11,80.00,77.14,36.36,-58.78,-56.39,-46.85,-47.06,-38.10
U-6 Unemployment Rate -38.0% change yoy on 8-2021 72.06,60.87,58.57,21.59,-54.59,-51.89,-45.56,-44.24,-38.03
Total Nonfarm Employment 235 change MoM on 8-2021 -306,233,536,785,269,614,962,1053,235
4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims -61.4% change yoy on 9-18-2021 -71.52,-69.55,-65.39,-63.19,-60.54,-59.86,-61.67,-61.41,-61.36
Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts) 3.8% change yoy on 7-2021 0.65,0.87,-0.58,-1.38,1.82,7.97,6.15,4.61,3.82
Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees 0.5% change yoy on 8-2021 -0.99,0.00,-0.98,0.50,6.32,4.12,3.07,1.76,0.50
Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) 4.8% change yoy on 8-2021 5.49,5.28,5.22,4.64,1.15,2.36,3.84,4.78,4.76

Production Indicators

Industrial Production Index 5.9% change yoy on 8-2021 -3.28,-1.67,-4.86,1.76,17.85,16.32,10.07,6.64,5.95
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries -9.3% change yoy on 7-2021 6.00,9.86,10.60,-3.05,27.47,153.43,101.85,5.87,-9.33
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods 42.7% change yoy on 7-2021 -6.08,-2.94,2.08,16.84,131.47,65.88,52.37,69.57,42.74

Consumer Indicators

Real Person Consumption Expenditures 7.6% change yoy on 7-2021 -2.44,-3.26,-0.80,-2.16,9.65,25.38,15.05,9.27,7.56
Real Retail and Food Services Sales 9.4% change yoy on 8-2021 1.00,7.92,4.74,26.37,47.30,22.03,12.85,9.37,9.37
Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) 13.1% change yoy on 8-2021 5.83,12.93,9.76,28.92,48.01,23.87,16.54,12.68,13.15
Total Vehicle Sales -14.0% change yoy on 8-2021 -3.33,-0.11,-5.46,56.03,109.60,39.82,18.61,-0.21,-13.98
Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores 18.1% change yoy on 8-2021 -13.89,0.78,-3.96,35.93,139.47,92.60,43.12,21.92,18.11

Residential Construction Indicators

New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits 13.1% change yoy on 8-2021 20.99,21.48,16.78,26.99,58.41,35.07,22.99,5.71,13.07
Nonperforming Total Loans (past due 90+ days plus nonaccrual) to Total Loans 1.06 on 7-2020 0.98,0.95,0.95,0.89,0.87,0.85,0.87,1.0,1.06

Credit and Financial Indicators

10-Year Treasury 1.47% on 9-24-2021 1.28,1.31,1.34,1.37,1.31,1.33,1.32,1.41,1.47
Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) 1.44% on 9-24-2021 1.03,1.06,1.09,1.13,1.08,1.1,1.1,1.19,1.24
Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) 1.18% on 9-24-2021 1.07,1.1,1.11,1.14,1.08,1.11,1.07,1.14,1.18
M2 Money Stock 25.7% change yoy on 2-01-2021 25.17,25.14,24.39,23.64,24.27,26.40,26.09,25.60,25.73
All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets 19.7% change yoy on 9-22-2021 18.31,18.57,18.68,19.00,19.20,18.98,19.21,19.60,19.69
Kansas City Financial Stress Index -0.78 on 8-2021 -0.36,-0.26,-0.47,-0.32,-0.77,-0.82,-0.75,-0.71,-0.78
Chicago National Financial Conditions Index -0.69066 on 9-17-2021 -0.70368,-0.69542,-0.68722,-0.68239,-0.67785,-0.67881,-0.68156,-0.68573,-0.69066
St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c) -0.07 on 3-13-2020 -1.561,-1.556,-1.462,-1.517,-1.604,-1.596,-1.215,-0.942,-0.07

Inflation Indicators

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) 5.2% change yoy on 8-2021 1.30,1.37,1.68,2.64,4.15,4.93,5.32,5.28,5.20
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) 4.0% change yoy on 8-2021 1.61,1.40,1.28,1.65,2.96,3.80,4.45,4.23,3.98
PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy) 3.6% change yoy on 7-2021 1.38,1.48,1.51,1.49,1.97,3.09,3.47,3.58,3.62
Median Consumer Price Index 4.10 on 8-2021 1.73,0.98,2.84,1.83,2.90,3.21,2.91,3.68,4.10
5yr5yr Inflation Expectations 2.21 on 9-24-2021 2.17,2.19,2.17,2.15,2.15,2.14,2.15,2.14,2.21


Note: Indicators are updated daily at 6:00 am Eastern time.
*Indicators rated as N/A may not themselves suggest changes in the business cycle, but should be monitored nonetheless.
Last Update on: 9-26-2021